Mission Kashmir 2006: Ditto 2005

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Kashmir will log on to 2006 on Sunday, and like the holiday, things will move very slowly, perhaps not much should be expected to change in the next 12 months: the trickle from LoC will not go off completely, militants and security forces will fight ferociously in the hinterland, fidayeen will keep on testing their grid in the city, may be the year sees more of centre-Hurriyat photo-ops, Musharraf's straight talk and New Delhi's cautious trudge towards peace. More cross-Loc buses, opening of border points or more occassions for people of two kashmirs to meet each other. But on Ground Zero, Kashmir will move in a holiday style; slowly and clumsily. Things can go horribly wrong in one go between India and Pakistan. A single incident can spoil the current bonhomie achieved after decades of hostility and hard postering.

Optimistically speaking, they will not. Optimism should rather lead the two neighbours and people of Kashmir to search for a durable peace. Optimism and realism, however, do not always go hand-in-hand. And the reality is that things are not moving as fast as one is given to understand. In an era where new formulas on Kashmir are thrown up every third week, only confusing signals are going out. Options like United States of Kashmir, self-governance, demilitarization, soft borders, troop de-escalation on LoC or Opposition National Conference's autonomy are gaining decibel at seminars and symposia only. At the dais, ideas and options seldom converge. On the ground too, things don't seem that rosy.

Slogans don't essentially seem to tally with the situation. Nor do they appear so for another 12 to 15 months. Ice melts when the atmosphere gets pleasant. We are still in sub-zero climes on Kashmir. Peace will take some more time to root. Infiltration from across is contuining although not at the same rate as was three to five years ago. Post-quake, if army's interceptions along LoC is any indication, militants continue to sneak into this side. By police and security forces estimates, there are still 1,500 militants active in Jammu and kashmir. This number neither goes up nor goes down, it is always regulated. No wonder despite the killing of so many militants in last 16 years, the figures remains more or less the same.

Another problem that authorities face is that militancy in J-K, has become more clandestine and gone hip with educated and urbane youth joining it. Stand-off attacks like use of mines and explosives-fitted vehicles are making a comeback. The strategy is employed for two main reasons, one, militants don't want to come in direct contact with forces and two, to inflict more casualities to troops. The separatist polity in Kashmir is getting more diffuse than converging on any point. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq, the moderate face of separatism, is considered a realist but here in Kashmir cynics feel he is yielding too much. He is one leader with whom New Delhi and Islamabad can do business.

The young Mirwaiz has matured since last few years and is leaving no opportunity to talk on Kashmir. Lately, he has nudged past hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani and become Islamabad's choice number one in kashmir. Geelani, meanwhile is sulking and busy trying to offset the setbacks he received after his grouping saw more and more people joining Mirwaiz's faction. Neutral outfit like Yasin Malik led JKLF have remained equi-distant from both but lack of fresh thinking is pushing this outfit to the margins. Now in America, Malik recently got a jolt when JKLF's two senior overseas divorsed his party. known for making strong comebacks, Malik is expected to pull some surprises.

Shabir Ahmad Shah, once known as Nelson Mandela of the East, is lying low and running out of favour these days. Brilliant as he is, Sajad Lone is noticed only these days when he pulls up a big crowd during his rallies. What eludes separatism atb this point is unity and unity is hugely impossible given the way the main leaders are divided on issues. Separatism notwithstanding, the mainstream politics is also running out of ideas. Since Ghulam Nabi Azad took over from Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as chief minister, only the office timing have improved, the work culture remains the same.

Corruption is deep-rooted, power crisis has further deteriorated and security situation not improved much. Political bickering in NC and Mufti's People's Democratic Party - the two are bitter rivals - are plaguing the two parties notwithstanding the respite they got when the state assembly passed a new anti-defection law. The Azad-led Congress which came to power in J-K after 30 years, is getting away due to a weak opposition. The NC which has a sizeable representation in 87-member lower House, is "befriending" Congress to the consternation of PDP - a coalition partner in the government. In Jammu, a marginalsied BJP and right-wing Jammu Mukti Morcha are doing precious little to dent the Congress which has grown in strength there. Bhim Singh's Panther's Party is making some noises but there are chinks in his armour too. Lucky as it seems, the Congress-headed coalition is likely to go on smoothly till the durbar moves back to the "volatile" Srinagar. And then the real test starts for Azad.