The last chance

10

Tweet

Things can change very quickly in five years. We only need to look back at 2004 to remind ourselves of this - it was a year when global markets were surging, the NDA government was celebrating 'India Shining', and economists suggested that the world was in the midst of the Gilded Age, and countries like India stood to benefit enormously from it. Five years later in the midst of a global economic crisis, the future looks a lot more uncertain. One thing is still unchanged - the Indian economy continues to show massive promise. But the next five years will decide if promise is all that we are going to have.

India is right now in a unique position, a young country in an ageing world, and is set to see a massive influx of young people joining the workforce over the next three decades. We will be adding close to 10 million workers a year seeking jobs for decades to come. If we are to remain a stable, growing economy, we will have to ensure that we train these workers effectively, and provide jobs in enough numbers. Right now, there is a real danger that we will fall very short of our goals.

We have stumbled badly in the last several years when it has come to creating organized sector jobs and expanding access to education and skills training to the people who need it. Governments have tried to address the growing clamour for employment by expanding the castes covered by reservations for education and jobs in the public sector. They have put a minimum job guarantee program in place for the worst-off workers. Most political parties have added 'private sector job reservations' to their 2009 election manifestos. They have in essence, done everything short of what is truly necessary - reforms that open up the economy, that expand education so that people will have the skills they need to find work, and that simplify labour laws to increase employment.

The NDA government had made a stab at labour reforms and backtracked at the outcry, and while the UPA government had plenty of reformers in its midst, it sidestepped these critical issues. Unless the next government at the Centre takes up these reforms and resists both the inevitable outcry that will come from interest groups and the temptations for easy shortcuts like reservations, we will see our biggest promise - our demographics - become our albatross. As millions of young people with high aspirations enter the workforce and find they neither have the skills to get a proper job, nor the ecosystem that creates proper jobs, the disappointment is going to be palpable. Almost every crisis we have today whether it is the atavism in Mangalore or the parochialism in Mumbai can ultimately be traced to unemployed and underemployed youth. Without quick action the demographic 'dividend' could well turn out to be a demographic 'disaster'. The next five years is our final chance.

(You can read more blogs by Nandan Nilekani at www.imaginingindia.com)