US labels Haqqanis as terrorists

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Signals it's in for the long haul, gives Kayani a jolt!

The US Treasury has declared three Afghan Taliban as terrorists. One of them is Nasiruddin Haqqani, brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani - of the Pakistan-based Haqqani network. We in India know the Haqqanis as the ISI's proxies headquartered in North Waziristan but whose men - both Afghan and foreign fighters - are active in Afghanistan, responsible for the bombings of the Indian embassy and the murders of Indian diplomats, doctors and artistes in Kabul. The other two declared terrorists are the Taliban's top financial officer (also believed to be a close aide of Mullah Omar) and a member of the Taliban council responsible for collecting zakat (or welfare tax) from Muslims in Balochistan.

The order authorises the US to turn off their money tap - freeze the assets of these individuals, block them from using financial institutions etc. The timing is hardly a surprise. Hillary Clinton had warned earlier this week in an interview in Islamabad that the Pakistanis would have to do more to curb the Haqqanis. She'd also warned that the US could designate the network as a terrorist grouping - after General Petraeus demanded that of Obama's aides and the demand was endorsed by the powerful chairman of the senate armed forces committee. A beginning appears to have been made now.

Indian officials suggest that underlying the move is a fundamental re-think. That the Pentagon is finally coming around to accepting that Washington's interests in Afghanistan are at fundamental variance with Islamabad's. That while America wants Afghanistan to be free of al-Qaeda and other jihadi groups, General Kayani is unwilling to end the ISI's patronage of the Haqqani network in his quest for strategic depth against India. The Pakistani army continues to believe any future role for the Taliban in Kabul will be brokered by it and is determined for the Haqqanis to remain a part of the Pakistani game plan. But it would appear from the feedback that Delhi is gathering from Washington and Kabul that both the Americans and President Karzai are beginning to realize that that would only spawn fresh terror.

At the heart of the US worry about a group whose targets have been Indians in Afghanistan is the Haqqanis' known contacts with LeT and the al-Qaeda. Richard Holbrooke confirmed as much during his media interactions in Delhi this week. (He helpfully added the ISI and the Taliban worked together). The sanctioned Haqqani's father Jalaluddin, the head of the grouping, has known and fought with Osama bin Laden in the 80s jihad against the Soviets. His fighters are more hardcore, better trained, and more lethal than even the Mullah Omar lot and have ISAF and American body bags to show for their efforts. For the American administration then, allowing the Haqqanis to come to power would be suicidal. Imagine what a successful terror attack or two on American soil traced back to Af-Pak will do to Obama's re-election hopes in 2012! And it's not a stretch given that a certain Faisal Shahzad did come close.

But what does this American move to sanction a Haqqani man mean for Karzai's reconciliation plan with the Taliban? Does it complicate it? Perhaps not. Karzai, too, has good reason to suspect Pakistani intentions despite the apparent recent warming of ties. After all, the Taliban he had attempted to contact directly have been conveniently placed under custody by Pakistani security forces, if not blown up. And most recently, the Indians while at the Kabul conference, picked up from the President distinct signs of growing unease over reconciling with the Taliban. Karzai apparently is only too aware that the Quetta shura will not spare him - a fellow Pushtun he may well be - as it tries to consolidate its newly acquired political influence, in the event of a successful reconciliation. (The Haqqanis by the way almost killed him in 2008). The once beleaguered President, now somewhat buoyed by international support, may in fact be attempting to buy time to further shore up his leadership as he publicly talks up a peace deal.

All of this is giving rise to a new perception - that the US is not planning to up and leave Afghanistan next year. Nor will it hand Afghanistan over to the Taliban on a platter. That's a view that is seemingly endorsed on the ground in Kabul, with observers noting no impending panic of a Taliban comeback, in fact property prices are still rising in Afghanistan's capital which otherwise resembles a war zone! There will be a nominal thinning of American forces next year but enough firepower will be retained to pound Taliban bases. The US Plan B, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with developments, could be America focussing on counter terror ops in Afghanistan as opposed to counter insurgency.

To that extent, New Delhi is noting a new acceptance in Washington of its security concerns. Delhi's own leverage in Afghanistan is limited but it's making its moves on the Afghan chessboard. Renewed, often quiet, contact with Iran, Russia and Afghanistan's three neighbors to the north - Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - is underway. And channels of communication are being opened within Afghanistan with the non pushtuns - the Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras.

Sanctioning the Afghan Taliban therefore can also be seen as the US asking Pakistan to behave itself or else be prepared to see Uncle Sam stick around for a long time to come! But where there's a stick, won't there be a carrot close behind? It's the 500 million dollar carrot served up on the Hillary platter! Perhaps the next move should be to starve the ISI of American dollars it so blithely diverts from official aid.