India turns up the heat on the Afghan cauldron

2

Tweet

Hamid Karzai's "twin brother" talk hasn't deceived anyone - just like Pakistani denials about sanctuary for and support to the Taliban and associate groups haven't. Karzai during his public lecture in New Delhi omitted Pakistan from the list of countries he expected support from - including India, US, EU, China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. In fact the President cleverly highlighted the need to talk to the real masters as opposed to the puppets. In doing so he's highlighted Pakistan as the source of the problem.

Of course, one could also argue that Karzai now recognises Pakistan as the principle party to any future political settlement. But there's nothing to suggest the Americans will allow Pakistan to get a veto on who is or isn't a part of a new power structure in Kabul. The US has also not expressed any misgivings over India's stepped up engagement in Afghanistan, signaling it will not support a Pakistani veto. What Washington does want is for Kabul and Islamabad to keep talking. In fact, the Americans, it is reliably learnt, also asked New Delhi to press Karzai to keep the dialogue channel with Pakistan open.

But no one in India is betting on those talks succeeding. Not least because Pakistan thinks it's winning the end game and America is sending mixed messages. As Pakistan uses its proxies to step up the war on coalition forces in Afghanistan, the Americans still appear to be trying to cut peace deals with the same proxies.

NSA Donilon reportedly secretly met General Kayani in the UAE over the previous weekend to discuss the Haqqanis. In August, US officials reportedly met a senior member of the Haqqani family in Dubai. An ISI interlocutor was reportedly present. Since Burhanuddin Rabbani's murder, there's been much talk but no move by Washington to sanction the entire Haqqani network as a foreign terrorist organisation. Or to launch US special forces raids in North Waziristan. So New Delhi is not surprised that Islamabad is showing no desire to go after the terrorists or the terror sanctuaries.

In Delhi's calculation, the countdown to a renewed civil war in Afghanistan began with the assassination of Rabanni. But instead of backing away from looming chaos, India has chosen to stick to its decision, taken several months ago, to publicly raise its profile in Afghanistan. India will start training large numbers of Afghan soldiers, as opposed to merely small batches of officers. It will begin training Afghan police. It will openly supply the ANA weapons and ammunition - like it does to Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Kabul's wishlist includes helicopters, armoured personnel carriers, and artillery. Delhi will also step up intelligence sharing with Kabul, well aware that the role of its consulates in Afghanistan will come under renewed scrutiny.

Indeed, India has factored in increased mistrust between itself and Pakistan as a result of this strategic pact. Pakistan's outreach to China and Saudi Arabia have been factored in. Vague noises about the US 'handing over the region' to India have been factored in. It's clear India has no qualms about needling Pakistan while it pursues its legitimate interests and Obama's Af-Pak envoy Marc Grossman can be expected to provide some interesting feedback to his interlocutors in Delhi in a week from now.

India is also active on several diplomatic fronts simultaneously. It's an important player in the US-led new Silk Route initiative. It is part of back-channel talks on Afghanistan's future led by Norway. India is renewing contacts with Iran and Afghanistan's northern neighbours. The Northern Alliance will need all the friends it can get in the tumultuous months ahead. And India plans on sticking around.