From Istanbul to Bonn via Rawalpindi

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The Istanbul process which has given birth to new promises to build confidence between Afghanistan and its neighbours inspires little confidence and even less hope. A set of very ambitious, non-binding commitments have been signed up to by Afghanistan and its neighbours who have differing, even conflicting, priorities and objectives.

For instance, Pakistan uses terror to attempt to drive a floundering reconciliation process while signing up to eliminate terror sanctuaries and to respect an Afghan-led reconciliation! Russia's priority is to see drug trafficking controlled and its influence in the region kept intact. The Iranians too want to see America out of Afghanistan sooner than later, while India would in principle not oppose continued US military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Meanwhile the US itself is reportedly mulling a 'mentoring' rather than a military role for its troops as early as next year!

Given the variance, a coherent, structured, and co-ordinated regional approach to stabilising and securing Afghanistan through improved intelligence sharing, or trade and investment, or trans border co-operation on mineral excavation, oil and gas projects and suchlike looks impossible.

India, which had hoped for a formal mechanism to be adopted enabling it to play an institutionalised role in the Afghan end-game, has settled for a half way house between a mechanism and a big fat zero. It's a process that will lead, as a first follow-up, to a ministerial conference in June in Kabul next year to assess progress. No one's betting on a basketful of outcomes.

There is just too much distrust in the air and fatigue appears to be setting in. Perhaps it's just as well. Anodyne statements, well-meaning yet meaningless in a conflict, are no more than platitudes that delegates painstakingly thrash out one day, confidently mouth a second, and decisively abandon the third.

Time is running out. The talkshops should end and the walk must begin on the road from Istanbul to Bonn via Rawalpindi. The desired approach is obvious to many: America starts to counter-punch instead of ducking Pakistan's punches. Instead, the US is trying a clumsy dance with Pakistan. Obama is getting his team to evolve the terms on which Pakistan will sit at the negotiating table along with its proxies. It's a strategy that is virtually guaranteed to fail because it ignores the futility of negotiating with those who have no incentive to negotiate.