Rahul vs Modi: the long and short of it
There is nothing journalists and the viewers love more than a 'big fight'. A Roger Federer is a great tennis player, but the legend is enhanced because of his battles with a Nadal; a Tendulkar's true genius was tested in his contests with a Mcgrath. What is true of sports is certainly true of politics. Which is perhaps why political pundits have rushed to predict a Rahul Gandhi versus Narendra Modi battle in 2014 even before the bugle has been sounded for the general elections.
For a news editor, it is a catchy headline and the contrast between the Congress's dimpled 'Prince' and the BJP's macho 'Pracharak' is too striking to be ignored. One is a child of privilege, blessed with the most enduring brand name in Indian politics. The other is a child of hardship whose father was not even a sarpanch. One claims to be the legatee of the idea of a Nehruvian India; the other represents an alternate worldview of Hindutva nationalism. The BJP likes to present the contrast as 'dynasty versus meritocracy'; the Congress would like to project it as a secular versus communal divide.
Modi is the great communicator; Rahul appears uncomfortable in large public gatherings. One can be a rabble-rouser; the other a polite gent. Modi wears the badge of CEO-style governance as his calling card with panache; the other talks of reforming 'systems' but has no ministerial experience. One is celebrated as an icon for a 'neo-middle class'; the other claims to represent the aspirations of a young India beyond the bright lights. Clearly, in a presidential style race, Modi versus Rahul is a delicious prospect, and one which is guaranteed to attract eyeballs.
And yet, the irony is that Modi and Rahul face similar challenges. Both in the first instance are being asked to live down their past. For the last nine years, Rahul has been a bit of a political butterfly, almost flitting in and out of the heat and dust of politics. He is now being asked to prove that he is indeed ready for a long haul, ready to be a 24x7 neta and not a distant, inaccessible figure. Modi too, is being challenged to acknowledge his failure to control the Gujarat violence of 2002. He has tried to recast his image as a growth oriented chief minister but the baggage of not having done enough to stop the killings of Muslims in the riots remains a black spot that cannot be erased only through well packaged sadbhavana yatras.
Both Rahul and Modi are also change agents within their own party, challenging the existing status quo. In a party notoriously resistant to change, Rahul is attempting to 'democratise' the Congress by opening it up to a new, more youthful leadership. Unfortunately, 'the poison of power', as he described it, has so deeply coursed through the veins of the grand old party that Rahul has found it difficult to translate his good intentions into any radical overhaul of the party structures yet.
Modi wants reform from within too. In a party wedded to the notion of 'collective leadership' and which is still controlled by an extra-constitutional RSS, Modi's individualistic, near-dictatorial style of functioning is looked at with suspicion and even with fear by his detractors within the Sangh Parivar. In Gujarat, Modi has succeeded in virtually wiping out the traditional Sangh leadership in the state but to effect a similar transformation in the balance of power between Nagpur and the parliamentary wing of the BJP may prove a shade more difficult.
There are other parallels too. Both Modi and Rahul are leaders in the age of coalition politics, and are now confronted with the prospect of the increasingly shrinking social and geographical bases of the so-called 'national' parties. As Rahul found out last year, Uttar Pradesh has moved well beyond any emotional attachment to the Nehru-Gandhi family; the newly assertive caste groups want a larger slice of the 'power' cake and are not dependent on old style patron-client relations. Modi too has to live with the reality that in states like Bihar with a large Muslim population, regional satraps like a Nitish Kumar are unwilling to publicly share a platform with him. Modi at least has proved himself as the supreme leader of his home state; Rahul's vote catching abilities remain largely untested.
Which is also perhaps why the pundits who are pitching the next elections as Rahul versus Modi have got both their maths and chemistry wrong. In a highly competitive and diverse political space, the arithmetic will tell you that the next election will be won by whoever is able to aggregate the maximum number of potential kingmakers - Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, Jayalalithaa, Pawar, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish, even a Jagan - under one large tent. The chemistry will convince you that that most of these regional players have no fixed loyalties and a number of them will be ready to mix with any combine that gives them a shot at power sharing.
What Rahul's ascent and Modi's likely emergence can do though is enthuse the rank and file of their respective parties. The Congress party organisation has only one glue that holds it together: The First Family. What to an outsider is evidence of 'chamchagiri' is seen by the party worker as the very basis of his existence in the Congress fold. The BJP, too, desperately needs a charismatic face to boost the morale of its cadres. A Rajnath Singh as party president can only be the result of a desperate compromise formula; only a Modi-like figure can give the BJP a sense of self-belief that it sorely lacks at the moment.
Rahul versus Modi will, therefore, be a sell-out battle for the Congress and the BJP loyalists. For the rest of India, be prepared for a surprise political grand slam contender.
More about Rajdeep SardesaiRajdeep Sardesai is the Editor-in-Chief, IBN18 Network, that includes CNN-IBN, IBN 7 and IBN Lokmat. He comes with 22 years of journalistic experience during which he has covered some of the biggest stories in India and the world. Prior to setting up the IBN network, he was the Managing Editor of both NDTV 24X7 and NDTV India and was responsible for overseeing the news policy for both the channels. He has also worked with The Times of India for six years and was the city editor of its Mumbai edition at the age of 26. During the last 22 years, he has covered major national and international stories, specialising in national politics. He has won numerous other awards for journalistic excellence, including the prestigious Padma Shri for journalism in 2008, the International Broadcasters Award for coverage of the 2002 Gujarat riots and the Ramnath Goenka Excellence in Journalism Award for 2007. He has won the Asian Television Award for best talk show for the Big Fight on two occasions and his current flagship show on CNN-IBN, India at 9, has been awarded the best news show at the Asian awards for the last two years. He has been News Anchor of the year at the Indian Television Academy for seven of the last eight years and won more than 50 awards in this period. He has also been the President of the Editors Guild of India, the only television journalist to hold the post and was chosen a Global leader for tomorrow by the world economic forum in 2000. An alumni of St Xavier's College, Mumbai, he has done his Masters and LLB from Oxford University and has also played first class cricket for the Oxford University team. He has contributed to several books and writes a fortnightly column that appears in seven newspapers.
- + The striking similarities of Modi and Indira's politics
- + AAP and the business of Delhi-centric news
- + Both 1984, 2002 a blot but conviction better in Gujarat
- + Cometh the anti-establishment neta
- + Can Arvind Kejriwal avoid a repeat of the 1989 VP Singh phenomena?
- + India is changing and it's in the positive direction
- + Arvind Kejriwal-AAP success has many lessons for Rahul Gandhi
- + Kejriwal and Modi: Agents of change promising too much, too soon
- + Don't ban opinion polls, but bring in a code of conduct for pollsters