Why Naveen Patnaik's the frontrunner

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The break-up of the BJD-BJP alliance has led to a lot of speculation on whether this will be a boon or bane for Naveen Patnaik and his party. Many political commentators and journalists have expressed that this gamble may well prove to be costly for Patnaik and bring him down after 10 years of ruling the state. The outcome will be clear in less than two months whether this may well be the case or if he will come out even more triumphant. While I will stay clear of speculating on which way it is likely to go, what I certainly do feel is that Patnaik's BJD has a clear edge over competition. My conviction is based on four matter of facts.

First and foremost, the people of Orissa are more likely to go with a party which throws up a clear leader. From a voter's perspective, it is important to know who you are voting for and if a political party is elected to power, who will be its chief ministerial candidate. Unlike the BJD where Naveen Patnaik is the undisputed supremo, both the Congress and BJP clearly do not have this advantage. This is not to say that the Congress has no leaders but it is a party which does not pose a unified front. If the Congress can come together as a unit and project a single leader, they will most certainly stand to benefit. But the factions and internal squabbles will serve as a hindrance for this grand old party. Though there have been widespread changes in the Congress Party's state leadership three months before the state goes to polls, it is amply clear that the party is unwilling to vest control in a single individual. While K P Singh Deo has been chosen to head the Pradesh Congress Committee, three working presidents have been appointed to aid and advise him. Besides, two other leaders Ramachandra Ulaka & Srikanta Jena have been given charge of the Congress Legislature Party and the State Election Campaign Committee respectively. Since the central leadership found it difficult to completely get rid of J B Patnaik, they made him a permanent invitee to the Congress Working Committee. Maybe the party felt that no single person has the ability to stem the tide in its favour or it could well be an exercise to appease a few other factions while making a big change at the top. Whatever be the reason, if the state Congress workers are not up in arms against Mr Singh Deo's appointment, it is only because they are aware that K P has the blessings of 10, Janpath. While Mr. Singh Deo's supporters may well argue that his clean image and his proximity to the high command will open doors for him in the state, he is too much of a gentleman to find his feet in a party which boasts of several wily, crafty state leaders out to swallow each other. If you ask Mr. Singhdeo privately, he will confess that he was much more at ease being the I&B Minister at the Centre in the Narasimha Rao government than he is, in his home state - at his current position.

Unlike the Congress, the BJP doesn't suffer from a problem of plenty. Quite the contrary, the party may struggle to find one clear leader with a mass base across the state. While its former President Jual Oram's support is confined to the tribal belt of Sundargarh, the popularity of its other leaders doesn't transcend beyond their constituencies. Lately, a few disgruntled leaders who have joined the party like Bijaya Mahapatra & Dilip Ray have done so not because of any ideological reasons but because they have a personal axe to grind. Both were tall leaders of the BJD who went into oblivion after being marginalised by Naveen Patnaik. Since they are both new entrants, they are unlikely to be given the charge to lead the party.

Secondly, the BJD being a single leader party has inherent advantages: more disciplined, quicker decisions, the party revolves around one individual and thus is more committed to fighting as a unit.

The leader's personal image significantly affects the party's image. Since Naveen's own image is clean, the party basks in his reflected glory. Even his detractors find it difficult to question his personal image but argue that he turns a blind eye when it comes to his trusted aides. It is widely believed that some of the ministers in the BJD government known to be close to Patnaik are not exactly free of corruption. The CM is accused of looking the other way when it comes to his near and dear ones.

My third reason can be attributed to the BJD's populist scheme announced last year of providing 25 kg of rice to all families below poverty line at a subsidised rate of Rs 2 per kg. In a state where the poor constitute almost half the population, announcing this more than six months ahead of the state polls is likely to reap rich dividends for the party. It is not just the announcement of the scheme, Naveen Patnaik has taken a step further. He and his advisors have realised that the success of such a scheme depended on its implementation and thus made the District Collectors accountable for it.

Last, but not the least, the legacy of Biju Patnaik also works in Naveen's favour. The former was seen in the state as not just a state political figure but a tall leader who played a large role in national politics. And not just outside the state. Very few state leaders can boast of being recognised internationally. Biju Patnaik is perhaps the only state chief minister to have been conferred the highest civilian award by a foreign nation. When Sukarno became President, the Indonesian government conferred the title "Bhoomiputra" on Patnaik and gave him honorary citizenship. He remained close to Indonesian leaders and Sukarno's daughter was even named on Patnaik's suggestion. As the son of such a legendary figure who was known more as a statesman than a politician, Naveen Patnaik has an edge over other chief ministerial aspirants from both the Congress & BJP. He may lack the charisma of his father, but by virtue of being his son is enough to endear himself to the people of Orissa.

Yes, the BJP will cry foul over being "betrayed by Patnaik" and how he dumped them when it suited him after an alliance of eleven years. While some voters may lap it up, most others may not give a damn. The BJP has only Hindutva to bank on to stir up support from a section of the population. This time they don't even have the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the stalwart who the people of Orissa looked up to. Though L K Advani & Narendra Modi have announced that they will campaign in the state, how much of a difference will that add to the sagging fortunes of the BJP remains to be seen.

Net-net, while the Congress is expected to gain from its past performance and the BJP has very little scope of making a difference, the BJD is best positioned to reap the maximum returns in elections 2009. And the reason is not because of the party or its ideology but one individual - Naveen Patnaik.