Thailand Blog: Trouble in the land of smiles

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Here I am in gay Pattaya, two hours by road from Bangkok, blinking at the neon lights as I nurse the effects of a potent sambuka, and the notion that my vacation will remain unaffected by the ongoing political upheaval in Bangkok.

However, no stranger to sudden changes in fortune, I wasn't too surprised when Pattaya's Central Mall - where I was watching Russell Crowe's rendering of Robin Hood - echoed with the announcement that the mall is being evacuated. A manager at the cinema advises my husband and myself to remain in our hotel for the rest of the day, assuring us we can resume the movie as soon as the situation in Bangkok returns to normal. Apparently, fires in the capital don't leave too many cities around untouched.

Today (Wednesday, May 19) itself, Bangkok has been imposed with curfew from 8 pm till 6 am, following the army's crackdown on the Red Shirt protestors. The Thai Stock Exchange, and many public and government buildings have been set on fire by violent protestors, as also one of Bangkok's largest malls Central Mall (a branch of the same one I was at), reportedly up in flames.

Today, five people, including an Italian journalist, have died, bringing up the toll since protests began in March to more than 40 dead. The images we're seeing on television of smoke billowing out of Bangkok's financial district point to the delicate and precarious situation in the capital now. While the government agencies point out the crisis is nearing its end, analysts feel the mopping up exercise for the army, law enforcement and indeed, Thailand embattled prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the chief target of the protests, could be messy and take weeks.

In the immediate term, armed Red Shirt protestors are still roaming the streets, and there could be many more law and order problems overnight, as also for the next couple of days, as crowds continue to run amok and enter into confrontations with the army, which maintains it has used lethal force for self-defence alone, a claim contested by Red Shirt protestors.

The tougher problem facing the government is in the long-term, namely, its ability to address the grievances of the Red Shirts. The protestors, mostly from the rural and urban poor, are supporters of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shanwatra, and believe the current prime minister does not hold the mandate to work for the country's majority.

They believe the current government is an illegitimate one, the Prime Minister having come to power via a court decision, and not through polls. They reject the judiciary, law enforcement, and believe that civil war is the only option to integrate themselves in the system.

While Shinawatra, now reportedly in Dubai, has spoken out that he is not the obstacle in talks between protestors and the government, it stands to reason that he, one of the most divisive forces in Thailand's recent political history, is hitting back even in absence.

Shinawatra, a business tycoon who has come to power time and again despite allegations of putting numerous public and private business enterprises in the hands of family members, he continues to orchestrate plunging the capital into chaos with the rural majority behind him. Significantly, the King, a greatly revered figure in Thailand across social and political ranks, has kept mum on Shinawatra.

The current protest, one of the longest, is only a recurring one. In April last year, the same protest ground parts of Bangkok to a halt for a few days. Then, protest leaders were let off on bail, and the government gave assurances of recognising the grievance of the Red Shirts, integrating their wishes into the system, and promising reform.

However, over the last year, political analysts say there has been no real move towards any kind of reform or redressal. Moreover, in prosecuting those responsible for the current protests, many feel the government needs to tread carefully in recognising the difference between political offensive and criminal wrongdoing. The government's handling of this 'victimised' section of the population in the long-term could dictate future negotiations between the groups, and consequently, government stability in the future.

For Thailand itself, whose economy, south-east Asia's second largest, is driven by tourism (6 per cent of the economy) and import/export trade, the cost of these protests is already great. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has already issued an advisory to his countrymen to avoid the country till the situation normalises. Millions of airline and hotel cancellations have already severely affected related big and small businesses all over the country. In Pattaya, Bangkok, and Hua Hin where I visited, hotel and bar owners, transport operators, all tell me they have never had it so bad. The volatile exchange rate that changes almost daily, and uncharacteristically dull streets are proof enough. The Thai people know an urgent and permanent solution in the eyes of the world is expedient if the 'Land of Smiles' is to get back on its feet.