IBNLive.com: Breaking news from India

Sanjay Jha

Jhakas

Sanjay Jha

An avid cricket fan, Sanjay Jha's life has been a veritable journey starting at Bishop’s School and Fergusson College in Pune, winding through XLRI, Jamshedpur, a coveted stint with a multinational bank and on to Dale Carnegie, before cricket stumped him in 2000. He launched CricketNext.com, now a part of Web 18 family, in Mumbai. By his own admission Jha is no 'fence-sitter' and loves to write with malice towards one and all.

RSS

Ads by Google

Font Size A+A-

The World Is Not Flat, Mr Friedman!

Tuesday , October 21, 2008 at 11 : 50


Email PrintBlog
Ads by Google

What's good for the US is good for the New York Stock Exchange. But what's good for the New York Stock Exchange might not be good for the United States.

William Martin , Jr ( 1906-1998)

Chairman, US Federal Reserve System

Morgan Stanley had just completed a whirlwind road-show across India, ensnaring giddy-headed investors into buying its much-hyped IPO for a mutual fund, marketed with such deceptive strategy, that the gullible greedy lot had thought they had bought into an emerging Reliance share. Some of India's leading hot-shot merchant bankers had duplicitously allowed a false notion to pervasively prevail that Morgan Stanley was like glittering gold; an investment that was a roadmap to El Dorado. That was 1994-95.

As I write this column, Morgan Stanley is close to being permanently vanquished, its stock tumbling dramatically, leaving it to Mitsubishi bank for a complete buy-out. Even in those heady days, when working with a blue-blooded investment bank was considered a career pinnacle, one suspected something rather extraordinarily strange about this sublime , sacrosanct breed called investment bankers.

"What do you think, should we invest in this chaalu ( fast) stock or just ignore it?", asked the foreign-educated, market savvy, media-obsessed portfolio manager for a global asset management firm. Outside, a rotund, gold-plated spectacle-wearing burly man with a grin wide enough to accommodate the Grand Canyon waited anxiously. The concerned stock was seen as the then Ipod of the emerging portfolio; the broker had some strong insider information on a proposed bonus issue straight from the horses' mouth.

We shrugged our shoulders; after all, it was the chief investment officer who had to take the final call; the rest of us were mere signatories on pre-printed forms. A dart -board stood framed disconsolately on the blank white walls opposite the CIOs desk. " Let's take a shot. If it hits the bull's eye, we buy full quantum. If we score under 8, we pick up half the recommended allocation. If it's less, we give it the thumbs down". He took the sharp-pointed dart in his hand, and taking aim glided it towards the bull's eye.

In all fairness, I do not know whether he finally executed that transaction based on the result of his Robin Hood aim, but that was the style , mood and attitude that prevailed. Equity research did not mean plant visits, extensive deliberations with production staff, interacting with the firms' suppliers and dealers, analyzing industry trends. Or assessing customer feedback. Most decisions were a function of secondary published research, subjective calls, insider trading , business networking, and confidential invitations to promoter boardrooms.

I met a well known head hunter recently by sheer accident at a private gathering, and asked her; " So what do you think of the current global mess? I guess it exposes the over-rated over-paid over-promoted tribe of "I" bankers. The I, Me, Myself lot who cannot see beyond their annual bonuses and extravagant off-sites, and yet appear so pious about stakeholder interests". Her reply stunned me.

"Oh , come on ! It's not their fault. They are greedy. It's the regulators to blame". Of course, it is also a system failure, borne out of regulator apathy, thanks to America's passionate embrace of pure market capitalism, but isn't the regulator and the government today working over-time to bail-out the speculative deals, innovative derivatives, subsidize the hefty pay packets of investment dudes and crony brokers, to preserve sanity on Wall Street. As a disgruntled friend told me " The next time you hear these guys saying they are bullish on TV channels, all you will think of is that they are all bull". Welcome to the world of cowboy capitalism!

Of course, the commercial and investment bankers can always justify that the CDS ( credit default swaps) was a breakthrough product, meant to create a new derivatives market, and free up capital for more structured lending. Ultimately, it would have meant higher ROI for both customers and investors. But surely, investment bankers were not expected to be so stupidly naïve about the over-all exposures multiplying through a vicious chain of internecine investments , which portended a huge systemic risk. Even a high school student could have predicted a certain bloodbath , if just one variable----home loan defaults , began to escalate. After all, they were sub-prime by definition, weren't they? That is exactly what transpired.

Which brings me to Mr Friedman. Perhaps that is what Thomas Friedman meant when he said The World is Flat, his much touted international bestseller, titled with an appropriate catch-phrase for grabbing eyeballs, based as it is on a factual fabrication. As central banks all over the world converge to salvage the US financial mess and their own ( check the speed with which RBI has swung into action) , it's repercussions being felt world-wide, maybe this is the "level-playing field" that Mr Friedman postulated on in his book, which at best, can now be called pulp fiction.

The Wall Street fiasco which has led to the investment banks tumbling in a calamitous heap, best explains why Friedman's book is based on fragile assumptions of continuous world-wide prosperity, over-dependence on technological innovations, connectivity and mathematical programming. In the 1930s , the Great Depression was a function of the stock-markets tumbling on speculative investments; almost 80 years later , it is a similar chain of avaricious events that has led to the big bubble burst. What goes round, comes round and around, Mr Friedman. And that can only happen if the world is round. Not flat. Galileo can rest in peace, even as Mr Friedman scripts another bestseller in his quiet backyard.

But perhaps Mr Friedman biggest blunder in his entire book which wants us to believe that the world is flat, is because his world conveniently does not include Africa, calculatedly forgetting the dark continent of the world. Because Africa is HIV/aids infected, suffers regular epidemics, starvation levels are shockingly high, ethnic genocide continues, politically irrelevant, and economically bankrupt. It has no "value added proposition", perhaps.

Friedman also fails to explain a peculiar trait of Indian IT industry; which is that the Indian IT behemoths who have created huge market capitalization and global brands , and have been given special status through tax sops by the Finance Ministry , still remain unaffordable for India's domestic corporate sector , and new entrepreneurs in the SME segment . Why? Because it is so obsessed with profiteering motive alone , Friedman's value-creation is based on pure commercial considerations and has nothing coherent in terms of terms of larger social responsibilities, that may require lesser operating margins. Isn't it therefore a peculiar paradox that the global investment bankers are now looking at government charity for a survival lifeline ? It is what I would call as " reverse nationalization".

Friedman should have maybe dug deeper than merely confabulate with IT honchos to find out why, despite possessing the supposedly best minds of a new India in the knowledge sector, why is it that Bengaluru is today India's worst infrastructural mess? You will get a collective response-"It's the government, stupid! But I have another question to ask----"Why not use your creative intelligence to initiate change as opposed to lobbying in Delhi's corridors of power for tax benefits and other freebies? And by the way, has someone asked Corporate India as to where is their RTI Act? In fact, ironically enough, it is the central government which has made the gigantic step towards transparency, but besides tall talk on ethical standards, India Inc. can still hide behind fudged numbers, through an accountant's artifice.

Perhaps Mr Friedman will be best advised to look inwards and introspect on a simple maxim which applies to investment bankers today; surely, if stock market experts were so expert they would be buying stocks, not selling advice. If New Orleans itself is so far removed from Manhattan, Mr Friedman, don't you think it has been rather presumptuous on your part to hard-sell to us all that the world is flat?

Yesterday, I was out for a weekend dinner, and ordered a delicious baked chocolate fondant for dessert, which on just a slight pierce, melted prodigiously into a circular pool. It reminded me of Morgan Stanley. It was a Japanese restaurant.

Posted by Sanjay Jha |9 comments

Total Comments: 9

CollapsePosted 2008-10-24 09:32:44 : By eshi

Dear Mr. Jha,

All of us intelligent, in hindsight! Ain't we?

Regards,
Eshi ...Reply

CollapsePosted 2008-10-22 19:18:28 : By subhaska788

Hi Sanjay,
I disagree with your arguments.Firstly when Friedman said the "world is flat" it is meant to say "IT is one of the enablers of a level playing field". Could you imagine a India being known in the nook and corner of the world say 15 years ago. I would say "No". All this has happened due to the IT revolution, which inturn has created the banking and the retail revolutions. As for Africa, bad politics has killed the entire continent(except SA and Egypt to some extent). Is it unfair to assume that the governemnt will try and improve their respective nations?
Secondly, the aim of private sector is profit maximization and just that. This motive allows job creation and thus resulting in widespread social development. The motive of the government is to create an ambience for private sector to thrive, to form the rules and regulations, to implement laws and of course to develop of society. The government, the organisations of the government have failed miserably in nation building. The governemnt can fudge the numbers much easier than the corporates. Do we know how much money was spent on building roads and how much was pocketed by contractors? No we dont. Do we know how much tax is ploughed back for the development of the country? "No" is the answer again.Then how is government transparent? Just because of RTI ? The effectiveness of RTI is for everyone to see. More than 50% of the cases are rejected. Of the remaining cases most of the replies are irresponsible.If corporates fudge data sonner or later there will be a case like that on Enron/Worldcom.Corporates are answerable to shareholders. The government is answerable to the people of the country(stakeholders). 60 years after Independence we still lack basic amenities and more than 30% of our population does not get a square meal in a day.Now can you tell me who has been more transparent, more effective and more responsible towards stakeholders? Whatever developement has heppened has been "in spite" of the government and not because of it. For Example: If Bangalore has bad roads, what can the IT sector do? All they can do is to lobby, to protest etc, which they did. But finally the act of building roads solely rests with government authorities. If you remember Narayan Murthy, Azim Premji and their ilk had threatened to move out of Bangalore if adequate infrastructure was not put in place.The government did not act inspite of these threats.And now the result is for everyone to see.
Secondly, see Mumbai. The city is in shambles. Here also the buck rests solely with BMC/Maha government.People have done their bit protesting, corporates have done their bit by paying the taxes. What can you expect them to do? Start building roads tomorrow? Then why have a government in the first place?Thirdly, I guess you have not ventured to see the IT companies working for Indian clients. There are a lot of Indian companies who have gone the IT way thanks to Indian IT companies.
Eg: SBI, BOI, ICICI, HDFC, Future Group, L&T, XEROX India, Reliance etc.It is purely a matter of commercial affordability. If SME's can afford the costs, they will go the IT way. If they cannot, no one will plug them in for free. There is nothing called a free lunch. This is akin to communism, expecting everything to be free. Such an attitude of propped up social development is harmful to the nation. ...Reply

CollapsePosted 2008-10-22 16:16:54 : By rajenupinangadi

Sanjay Jha,
have you not overlooked the false sense of dejavu projected by UPA for its very survival along with the likes of lalu, mulayam and Karunanidhi.? Where is the 9 percent growth of the nation , that too all inclusive as told by our PM.? Our FM being the clever money lender that is his family trade,has effectively fooled the nation with P-notes, more the money defreezing the more is the wipe out of capital as seen in the last few days, as sensex and nifty is not for small investors,it is only for those with deep pockets who know the inside trading, government policies and can influence these policies.
The media with patent hate for NDA, more for BJP, made big hue and cry about India shining, the rule of kickbacks and UPA has kept India burning and seething in anger as capital investments are wiped off for the common man, the rich and powerful have withdrawn, are withdrawing even now, when the system pumps in money. ...Reply

CollapsePosted 2008-10-22 15:57:10 : By skimmy

Dear Sanjay

Freidman is not entirely wrong when he says world is flat. I don't understand your logic behind equating something like failure of financial markets triggered by rich and greedy people to integration of formerly isolated countries like India and China into the global economy on which his famous book is based.

When he says the world is flat, it means that trade and commerce of the world are interconnected than ever before such that geographical boundaries no longer are barriers for you to compete in the global market.

And why not? This had to happen, if you have observed the evolutions in communication technologies over last two decades, globalisation doesn't at all sound illogical. Now the trade and commerce can happen over the wire. Some of the technologies for you to look into

1) Tele/Video conferencing
2) Mobile Telephony
3) Internet
4) Telephony over internet (at zero cost)
5) Internet payment gateways

That's why the world is flat.

...Reply

CollapsePosted 2008-10-22 09:10:19 : By tanmoyratgmail

Dear Sanjay Jha,

I actually took the pain of registering, just so that I can reply to your post. Your article is published on 21st Oct 2008 and you mention that Morgan Stanley is being completely bought over by Mitsubishi Bank and that the company's future is in deep darkness.

Let me stop you from misguiding the readers- Morgan Stanley deal with M bank was a success and that's history (it happened 2 weeks back). Also M bank purchased a 21% stake in the company for 9Bn$ - NOT the whole company. It may sound like a big surprise (to you since you are not so well informed) - but the stock has been steadily going up (and not Down) for the last 2 weeks. It will continue to do so ...because M-bank bought the Morgan stanley stock at a premium! (I think that's not a sign 'The End', is it? )

And for heaven's sake please first read the book before spicing up your article by misquoting the title of the book. I don't even want to get into the flaws of the arguments that you have presented in your article. They are so miserable and far off from the reality that I would probably have to planet Mars and let my intellect die for the rest of my life- in order to find a justifying reply.

I think IBNlive would be better off with keeping Mr Jha in the Sports column and use his creative masala over there.

Regards,
Tanmoy ...Reply

DISCLAIMER
The views/ideas/opinions expressed in this section of the website www.ibnlive.com / www.ibnpolitics.com are solely those of the writer/author and not of Web18 Software Services Limited (Web18) or of IBN18 Broadcast Limited (IBN18). The statements made by the writer/author have not been verified in any manner by Web18 and/or IBN18. Web18 and/or IBN18 shall not be responsible for or liable in any manner whatsoever for the views/ideas/opinions expressed by the writer/author of this section.

About Us | Disclaimer | Careers @ IBN | RSS | Podcast | Contact Us | Feedback | Advertise With Us | Connect.in.com

© 2010 IBNLive.com India. All Rights Reserved. A Web18 Venture

CNN name, logo and all associated elements ® and © 2009 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. CNN and the CNN logo are registered marks of Cable News Network, LP LLLP, displayed with permission. Use of the CNN name and/or logo on or as part of CNN-IBN does not derogate from the intellectual property rights of Cable News Network in respect of them.