Third Front on a back-foot

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On Thursday in Karnataka (which saw the emergence of India's first prime minister whom nobody had heard of before) they announced the Third Front, a bland amalgamation of a cold broth consisting of multiple ingredients. I will leave the perfunctory and predictable analysis of this complex combine to conventional journalistic processes, and instead get straight down to bare facts----the naked truth:

1) The Third Front, remarkably enough, has found a common platform with just one month to go for the national elections. This is not just opportunistic, it is sheer desperation. These are political parties who are left-overs from failed alliances, and who are singularly drifting on their own life-boats. For instance, barring their tender gender, disproportionate assets and sheer unpredictability, what is the common thread between Madam Jaya and Madam Maya; please search me for answers.

2) The Third Front has no ideological basis whatsoever; nothing. Just what does a capitalist Chandrababu Naidu have to do with the Nano-bashers in CPM/CPI is anybody's guess.

3) The only common angst that they all share is: anti-BJP (mostly), and anti-Congress (somewhat). Now that is hardly the kind of alternative India needs at the moment; just plain opposition without any serious counter-agenda.

4) Their most significant asset is a certain Mayawati, whose only goal in life is to use the caste arithmetic in UP to muster up enough seats to proclaim herself as the consensus candidate for prime ministership. Mayawati knows as much about the nuclear deal as she knows of JP Morgan's credit default swaps, despite the queen-maker Mishraji, the classic Brahmin Chanakya by her side. Huge risk, that no one in the Third Front should ever take, especially a certain Mr Erdudite-Know-it-All Mr Karat. Moreover, outside of UP, her influence is as shallow as my triceps compared to John Abraham's. Everyone from Sharad Pawar to Mayawati is hoping for that divine dame luck that befell the sleepy giant called Deve Gowda.

5) The CPM is the prime mover of this crazy concoction, as they fear a perceptible threat of obsolescence in Elections 2009. The Congress has rightly unleashed the vitriolic, shrill, unstoppable Mamata Bannerjee on CPM in West Bengal, where after Nandigram and Singur, the CPM faces its litmus test. Also, in their only other remaining turf, Kerala, the Marxists are likely to experience some serious whirlwind too, blowing their house-tops.

6) The Third Front will hope to increase its aggregate scorecard (reading 84 based on 2004 results) through the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the BSP in UP. If the Congress-SP ties fail in Uttar Pradesh, the BSP might easily double its score to 38-40. The Tamil vote is as unpredictable as Jayalalithaa's mercurial mood swings, but she should be expected to benefit from the zero status of the last rout. Andhra assumes maximum significance as that is a head-on contest with the Congress, and will impact the Congress more than anyone else. But even assuming Naidu creates a mini-wave riding on anti-incumbency and the Satyam issue, a landslide looks unlikely. And the BJP will take a long time to create a Karnataka of AP.

7) Based on (6) above, the Third Front can at best muster 120, and maybe 130 with Naveen Patnaik's BJD, assuming CPM holds fort (most unlikely). Its more realistic number would be 110-115.

8) Thus, Mayawati technically has no hope of occupying Race Course Road, as the moment the Third Front looks wobbly, its constituents will be sourced, serenaded and solicited by the Congress-UPA or the BJP-NDA. The BJD, AIADMK, TRS, TDP may all choose a convenient bed-mate from amongst them.

9) Elections is a zero-sum game; someone's gain is someone's loss. The Third Front numerically will not be force enough to weaken BOTH the national parties and their coalition partners significantly, to be termed as an "alternative" as they are currently hoarsely shouting about. At the most, they will increase their tally by another 35-40 seats, hurting minorly either the BJP or Congress coalitions, but not both. Thus, given the Third Front's 2004 low base, its role is essentially marginal despite India's dubious chessboard of national politics, playing out post-elections, which means disaffected parties like the NCP playing T20 cricket for instant slam-bang results.

10) I think the Congress, unlike the last time, should see the Third Front as a blessing in disguise. The NDA's former partners, the TDP, BJD and AIADMK, in three crucial states have walked away from the saffron party, severely damaging its alliance hopes and any thoughts of striking a homerun in the 100 odd seats that these states add up to, which will determine the next government.

MY VERDICT

The Third Front will end up helping Congress-UPA.

BJP stands to lose big-time.

The Third Front will see a marginal improvement, but aggregate will not exceed 130, far away from the half-way mark.

The Third Front is more like a regional party itself, and lacks a national representation.

The Congress must strike a deal with the Samajwadi Party in UP to take advantage of a weak BJP, and threaten Mayawati on her home pitch.