On Thursday in Karnataka (which saw the emergence of India's first prime minister whom nobody had heard of before) they announced the Third Front, a bland amalgamation of a cold broth consisting of multiple ingredients. I will leave the perfunctory and predictable analysis of this complex combine to conventional journalistic processes, and instead get straight down to bare facts----the naked truth:
1) The Third Front, remarkably enough, has found a common platform with just one month to go for the national elections. This is not just opportunistic, it is sheer desperation. These are political parties who are left-overs from failed alliances, and who are singularly drifting on their own life-boats. For instance, barring their tender gender, disproportionate assets and sheer unpredictability, what is the common thread between Madam Jaya and Madam Maya; please search me for answers.
2) The Third Front has no ideological basis whatsoever; nothing. Just what does a capitalist Chandrababu Naidu have to do with the Nano-bashers in CPM/CPI is anybody's guess.
3) The only common angst that they all share is: anti-BJP (mostly), and anti-Congress (somewhat). Now that is hardly the kind of alternative India needs at the moment; just plain opposition without any serious counter-agenda.
4) Their most significant asset is a certain Mayawati, whose only goal in life is to use the caste arithmetic in UP to muster up enough seats to proclaim herself as the consensus candidate for prime ministership. Mayawati knows as much about the nuclear deal as she knows of JP Morgan's credit default swaps, despite the queen-maker Mishraji, the classic Brahmin Chanakya by her side. Huge risk, that no one in the Third Front should ever take, especially a certain Mr Erdudite-Know-it-All Mr Karat. Moreover, outside of UP, her influence is as shallow as my triceps compared to John Abraham's. Everyone from Sharad Pawar to Mayawati is hoping for that divine dame luck that befell the sleepy giant called Deve Gowda.
5) The CPM is the prime mover of this crazy concoction, as they fear a perceptible threat of obsolescence in Elections 2009. The Congress has rightly unleashed the vitriolic, shrill, unstoppable Mamata Bannerjee on CPM in West Bengal, where after Nandigram and Singur, the CPM faces its litmus test. Also, in their only other remaining turf, Kerala, the Marxists are likely to experience some serious whirlwind too, blowing their house-tops.
6) The Third Front will hope to increase its aggregate scorecard (reading 84 based on 2004 results) through the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the BSP in UP. If the Congress-SP ties fail in Uttar Pradesh, the BSP might easily double its score to 38-40. The Tamil vote is as unpredictable as Jayalalithaa's mercurial mood swings, but she should be expected to benefit from the zero status of the last rout. Andhra assumes maximum significance as that is a head-on contest with the Congress, and will impact the Congress more than anyone else. But even assuming Naidu creates a mini-wave riding on anti-incumbency and the Satyam issue, a landslide looks unlikely. And the BJP will take a long time to create a Karnataka of AP.
7) Based on (6) above, the Third Front can at best muster 120, and maybe 130 with Naveen Patnaik's BJD, assuming CPM holds fort (most unlikely). Its more realistic number would be 110-115.
8) Thus, Mayawati technically has no hope of occupying Race Course Road, as the moment the Third Front looks wobbly, its constituents will be sourced, serenaded and solicited by the Congress-UPA or the BJP-NDA. The BJD, AIADMK, TRS, TDP may all choose a convenient bed-mate from amongst them.
9) Elections is a zero-sum game; someone's gain is someone's loss. The Third Front numerically will not be force enough to weaken BOTH the national parties and their coalition partners significantly, to be termed as an "alternative" as they are currently hoarsely shouting about. At the most, they will increase their tally by another 35-40 seats, hurting minorly either the BJP or Congress coalitions, but not both. Thus, given the Third Front's 2004 low base, its role is essentially marginal despite India's dubious chessboard of national politics, playing out post-elections, which means disaffected parties like the NCP playing T20 cricket for instant slam-bang results.
10) I think the Congress, unlike the last time, should see the Third Front as a blessing in disguise. The NDA's former partners, the TDP, BJD and AIADMK, in three crucial states have walked away from the saffron party, severely damaging its alliance hopes and any thoughts of striking a homerun in the 100 odd seats that these states add up to, which will determine the next government.
MY VERDICT
The Third Front will end up helping Congress-UPA.
BJP stands to lose big-time.
The Third Front will see a marginal improvement, but aggregate will not exceed 130, far away from the half-way mark.
The Third Front is more like a regional party itself, and lacks a national representation.
The Congress must strike a deal with the Samajwadi Party in UP to take advantage of a weak BJP, and threaten Mayawati on her home pitch.
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The party which has been in power for almost 50 years (i.e congress)says that the bjp hates poor people and lots of such utterances, Mr. Rahul Gandhi proudly says that his party is pro-poor on the face value it looks like the congress party in general and rahul gandhi in particular are very concerned about the poor, it is not the bjp which is responsible for the growth in poverty because it ruled for a very short period of time, it is the misrule and inappropriate policies of the congress party in its 50 years reign which is solely responsible for this pathetic situation, the congress party should be very proud of Mr. Rahul Gandhi who along with Mr. David miliband (a senior minister of U.K)went on a POVERTY TOURISM in Mr. Rahuls constituency few months ago, this clearly shows who is promoting poverty. The congress has no right to talk about poverty because it has won many elections on THE SLOGAN GARIBI HATAO but it now seems that the congress is just contended with small dosage of poverty tourism in rae bareli and amethi. Just helping a few kalavati, leelavati or mayawati will not eradicate poverty it can at the most called as political symbolism, there are millions in this country who are very fortunate if they get one square meal and millions forego even that due to lack of money, the congress party if it is serious about poverty eradication should do some thing which is visible to all just slogans cant remove poverty, people like Ms. Mayawati who calls herself DALIT KE BETI (IN REALITY CROREPAT(N)I) should be exposed thoroughly, on the one side she pays income tax for more than Rs.26 crores per annum and shamelessly tell the people that the money are from poor peoples donations(it is corruption money because its not the poor peoples contributions as she makes everybody believe its actually the people whom she favours in getting lucrative posts, contracts etc, etc) Mr. Rahul gandhi for past 5 years visited only one constituency the most and that is rae bareli, if he wants to be a national leader he should understand that rae bareli is one of the 543 constituencies in INDIA and if we wants to be a national leader then just visiting only one constituency will not be enough, for becoming a PRIME MINISTER a person has to take into consideration the whole country and its problems. Another major hungamma is regarding youth just being young is not a factor at all youth should also consist of experience and brains to run such a huge country age should not be the sole criteria for a persons qualification or disqualification, youth with experience, brains, guts, out-of-the box thinking, patience to listen to others as well, courage to face oppositions from both within and outside, ability to communicate with people in a very simple format, be down to earth, respect for all including opponents. Mr. Rahul Gandhi possesses some qualities listed above but still has a long way to go before becoming eligible for P.M. ...Reply
The minority community big and small have always been a major voting block in several constituencies of our country both in the lok sabha and state elections, till a few years back they were mostly voting en-block to the congress party but due to various major and minor reasons the minority community started voting to various regional parties like the S.P,BSP,RJD,LJP,NCP,CPI,CPI(M),DMK,TDP,BJD. But have the minority communities ever realised any benefit by voting to such motely groups of regional parties?, the answer is a BIG NO, these SO CALLED TORCH BEARERS OF SECULARISM IS BY NO MEANS SECULAR they are neither interested in the welfare of the minority community nor they will ever like the minority community to improve either socially or economically, these regional parties want the minority community to be their permanent vote bank and these small parties are becoming so overconfident due to the assured vote bank of the minority communities that they have started realising that just by lip service and false hopes they are permanently assured of the minority vote bank, the minority communities should understand that the regional parties are just CONNING AND FOOLING them and are more interested in theri votes and less interested in their causes of social or economic development. The minority communities should understand that most of these REGIONAL BOSSESS ARE mostly FROM THE MAJORITY COMMUNITY ARE NEVER LOYAL TO THEIR OWN COMMUNITY then HOW CAN THEY BE LOYAL TO THE MINORITY COMMUNITY, they just change the cap on their heads TO FOOL THE MINORITY COMMUNITY INTO GIVING THEIR VOTES TO THEIR PARTIES, the REGIONAL PARTIES HAVE DONE MORE DAMAGE TO THE MINORITY COMMUNITIES. Its high time that the minority community realise the power of their votes and TOTALLY STOP VOTING TO THE REGIONAL PARTIES and instead they have two options first is THEY FORM THEIR OWN PARTY AT NATIONAL LEVEL AND FIELD CANDIDATES FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE COMMUNITIES, but since its too late for 2009 elections what the minority communities can do is to field their own candidates as independents in as many constituencies as possible throughout the country and cast their votes to them or they they can GIVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO THE NATIONAL PARTIES LIKE THE CONGRESS . Its high time the minority communities understand the meaning and the power of their votes and they SHOULD ENSURE THAT THEY NEVER EVER VOTE FOR THE NARROW MINDED AND SELFISH REGIONAL PARTIES. ...Reply
The communist are totally bankrupt of ideas but yet they claim to have a mind fertile
with ideas(mostly for destabilizing the country and destroying the livelihood of ordinary people)
The COMMUNISTS are the SHAKUNI IN MODERN DAY POLITICS and they are more interested in creating and thriving on confusion, they believe only in their stability and not that of the country or economy or its people. The communist are more loyal towards their god fathers in china and their only wish is to fulfill the wishes of their Chinese bosses and there are lot of proof for these loyalty the most recent one was the oppositions to the indo-u.s nuclear deal, their anti-nationalism doesnât end there the naxalites and their activity through out the country has the covert blessings of these people, they dream of making India into a communist country like Nepal both through their brand of politics (confusion and uncertainty) and also by violence in the garb of social justice through naxalism, where people can afford to a prolonged armed struggle (i.e they can afford a gun to take innocent lives but cannot afford a bun to eat.) The communist are one of the most SINISTER PARTY in our country and their brand of politics is to MAKE THE POOR EVEN POORER by grabbing his lively hood, there are several instances in the country where even a good and efficient company have been forced to go bankrupt due to the whims and fancies of these communists their track record in the last 50-60 years will show that the number of companies going bankrupt or shutting down due to the economic or trade union policy of the communists (especially in states under their rule) will far out number the opening of a new venture. Even the definition for SECULARISM in our country is not what it should be, ideally secularism means that all the religion and its followers should be treated equally without any favour or any extra benefits, but in our country SECULARISM MEANS BASHING THE HINDUS BY ALL WAYS AND MEANS AND APPEASING THE MINORITY COMMUNITY(READ MUSLIMS) TO ANY EXTENT with all kind of political, economic and other ways and means so as to garner their votes, all the major parties are (mis)using these minority appeasement policies in the garb of secularism, the communists are in the fore front in minority appeasement and they consider themselves as torch bearers of secularism their brand of secularism means that if someone even talks about the genuine requirements of hindus they are branded as communal, the communist party has been getting elected for more than 35 years in west Bengal mainly by allowing ILLEGAL BANGLADESHI MIGRANTS to settle down in various parts of west Bengal, if states like Tamil nadu has 53 lakhs bogus voters then imagine(there could be more than a crore bogus voters in west bengal itself) how much bogus and illegal voters may be there in states like west Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir etc. On the one side the third front shows that they are united but see how these people especially the communists are begging, haggling, threatening their counter parts in Andhra, Tamil nadu for a few extra seats. In the same way the communists call varun Gandhi by lot of names due to his recent utterances and are also very happy regarding varun being booked under NSA but the same people support a person called maudany (in kerala) who is a terrorist, traitor and a well known anti-national element but these people are begging for his support for getting a few Muslim votes this shows the extent to which these communists have stooped down to, all of us know very well how they behaved with parents of the martyr commando MAJOR.SANDEEP UNIKRISHNAN and what words they used, that is their true colour and behaviour. The comunists very loudly talk about the godhra incident but do they talk in the same way about the violence, murder, rape, destruction of property in NANDIGRAM (west Bengal).The communists are never in favour of democracy they talk a lot about going to the peoples court and all such things but if you closely watch most of their so called national leaders are from rajya sabha no one has the guts to fight from lok sabha and most of them in their entire lives have been a politician without the mass base or grass root support but still they claim to be national leaders. COMMUNISTS ARE THE BIGGEST CHEATERS OF POOR PEOPLE. So the people in KERALA, WEST BENGAL, TRIPURA should VOTE OUT THESE PEOPLE WHO THRIVE ON POOR PEOPLES BLOOD. The third front is an anti-people,anti-national conglomeration which is more expert in poverty elevation(more poverty) led by the SHAKUNIS OF MODERN INDIA THE COMMUNISTS.These parties only ideology is more poverty more strenght,these mushrooms will vanish if the poverty is reduced.
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The biggest mistake the congress is doing is that it thinks it can ride on lalu again after the elections but in reality lalu will be very lucky if he wins 5-7 seats in bihar and paswan will find it very difficult to win his own seat. congress on its own can win more seats than lalu and paswan put together, lalu will be a liability so it will be good for congress if it removes him and paswan from the cabinet so other allies will not take congress for granted.
Even in maharashtra its ally the ncp will try to win more seats with the help of congress but will secretly try to queer the pitch for congress in most of the seats, in short the congress should not take the ncp for granted as an ally and it should be always watchful, it will be better for congress to contest all the seats in maharashtra as there is a good chance in winning many more seats than with a coalition partner like ncp which is growingly becoming totally unreliable.
Even in u.p the congress should field its local candidates instead of erstwhile cricketers or cine actors(outsiders) because local candidate have the home advantage and so people will be more interested if a local candidate is fielded and since a local candidate is always in touch with the constituency it will be liked by the people than some one who if he/she is an outsider will not always be there to redress the grievance of the people.The congress in u.p should field candidates in all the 80 constituency whether it wins or looses is a different thing but unless the party doesnât field in all constituencies it will not be able to gain back its focus(from the people view point) and only then can the congress contain the S.P IN U.P TO A WIN IN ONLY 10-15 SEATS, if mayawati (bsp) can field a candidate in almost all the 542 constituency why not a national party like the congress do the same,it is high time that the congress learnt the realty about the opportunistic allies, if it needs to survive it will have to swallow the bitter pill of fighting the elections on its own only then can the congress taste the sweet success. The congress should not live in a fools paradise that the allies who have deserted them will come back and that too so easily and the people like lalu Prasad yadav who are singing praises for ms. Sonia Gandhi and Prime minister Dr.manmohan singh should not be taken on face value they only do glib talk to show that they are very loyal to both but the reality is contrary to it. The congress can survive in the so called cow belt or hindi heartland only it ensures that the allies who have betrayed them should be vanquished. Even in the southern state of Tamil nadu the congress should demand at least 20 parliamentary seats because it has nothing to loose in bargain because in T.N the government is surviving only with the support of the congress and it should be a major factor in bargaining for more seats. The congress should be more assertive over its allies only then can it gain the upper hand and respect among both the people and the allies.
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One is anti-social(lawloo)and the other is anti-national(moolahyum ,aamur gang)both are destroying the country the only difference is the BIHARI BUFOON is destroying the state of bihar by all possible means and even after leaving THE UPA HE SHAMELESSLY CLINGS ON TO THE POST OF RAILWAY MINISTER, the other more dangerous moolahyum and his dalal(for all season and reasons) general secretary of the the CYCLE PARTY in ULTA PULTA PRADESH(where mayas illusionary elephant is all over the place)are anti-nationals they are elected by people of india but their loyalty is solely to the dubai-karachi based TRAITOR AND TERRORIST THE COWARD DAA-WOOD, the maratha manus Mr. shared power who is aspiring to be p.m of india is also a sincere partner of THE DAA-WOOD,if such people continue to be leaders and win election after election, then i hope and pray to GOD TO SAVE THIS COUNTRY from such people. Media should not be just onlookers to this circus they are for the people and not for politicians and that too to such traitors, in fact the regional parties are a direct threat to the countryâs existence and its integrity people and media should be vigilant other wise in a few years our country will also face the possibility of dis-integration like the erstwhile soviet union our enemies across the boders are doing this from outside and these motley groups of regional parties are doing the same from within the country, its time people choose the national parties (EITHER BJP OR CONGRESS). ...Reply
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