India and Pakistan: a new over in the offing?

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Even gods have their moments of doubt- of coming up against seemingly insurmountable odds. And it would seem Cricket, one of the subcontinents most venerated gods may have met such a match in the current India-Pakistan détente. Politicians in Pakistan and cricket lovers in India alike have decried the IPL auction that rejected every Pakistani player up for bids- outraged that team owners were unable to overcome visa fears and security risks to transcend borders."Cricket, after all, " wrote in one agitated viewer, "has no political boundaries." But it does. And to assume that it should be able to overlook them would be to give the sport a much greater leadership role in solving bilateral problems than it deserves, or indeed should aspire to. Why blame commercially driven team owners if the math of India-Pakistan relations adds up to a big zero right now?

Fortunately for those disappointed fans, there are several signs that India and Pakistan may be padding up for a new round of engagement- that could possibly change the atmospherics in time for IPL-4. Last week Foreign Minister SM Krishna picked up the phone to dial his Pakistani counterpart SM Qureshi, to greet him for the New Year and to push for progress in the Mumbai attack investigations. That's something he didn't do just two months ago when the two were in the same city of Port of Spain for the Commonwealth in November, and they were staying in hotels across the road from each

other.

The two foreign ministers are going to be in the same city this week as well, when they meet at the Afghan donors conference in London, and are likely to talk about more than the region's problems. Another sign is the flurry in track-2 initiatives between activists, aided by two major newspapers on both sides of the border. And finally- a new line is expected after the exit of National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, a man known for tough talking on Pakistan- replaced by a diplomat known for his ability to talk to the Pakistani leadership, former Foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon.

In the 14 months that have transpired since the dialogue process was suspended after the Mumbai attacks, other factors have come into play - In India, a growing belief that not talking to Pakistan is not necessarily a bad thing. A year without any major terror attacks has been seen as proof that the 'value-add' benefit of talking is not that high. In Pakistan, there's a similar fatigue- and also a certain smugness that talks will be a US-aided process, particularly given the growing dependence the Obama administration has shown on Islamabad as it tries to solve the Af-Pak tangle. Both Qureshi and Krishna separately stated that there would be no point in meeting for the sake of a 'photo-op' alone.

The one upside of not talking this past year, though, is that when the two sides do finally resume dialogue, they don't have to return to the old dialogue, and can instead revise the process. The 8-pronged Composite dialogue is not dead as much as has passed its expiration date. The benefits accrued from nearly 5 rounds and a decade of engagement notwithstanding, it is time to graduate to the next stage- where the two countries put aside the issues that they have made some progress on: Siachen, Sir Creek,Wullar/Tulbul, economic cooperation, and friendly exchanges in various fields, that can all be solved in due course. That leaves confidence building measures, Jammu and Kashmir, and terrorism and drug trafficking.

In short: Kashmir and Terror.

Any new engagement the two sides embark on can start chipping at the two core issues that bedevil relations the most. On Kashmir, both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and former President Musharraf have admitted they came close to a "non-territorial" solution through the back-channel by 2006, when Pakistan's domestic politics stalled them. The withdrawal of Army battalions from the valley this January, and initiating of talks with Hurriyat leaders show that the process, atleast for India continues to be worked on. On terror, it will be important to follow the trial of the Mumbai attack suspects- but any real crackdown will only come when Pakistan sees that the terror groups it raised to attack India are the same ones that threaten Pakistan today.

In the interim- violence levels will continue to rise with every fresh initiative for dialogue- perhaps the best indicators of a move towards talks is the recent rash of border fire exchanged, infiltration attempts, and the resurgence of planned attacks in the valley. During the Lal Chowk siege,according to tapes broadcast on CNN-IBN, militants were even told by their handlers that their mission was to 'breathe life into the dead of horse of the insurgency'.

In a nutshell- the road ahead for policy makers and negotiators thinking of reviving India-Pakistan dialogue is daunting: from muted public support (except in matters of cricket), to the complicated contours of the new process, to the almost-certain risk of fresh terror attacks being planned on targets in India.

To those who call that task impossible, the year 2010 has already wrought one foreign policy miracle: the turnaround in the relationship between India and Bangladesh. In just over a year the Dhaka-Delhi equation has gone from acrimony to accord. Not long ago Bangladesh was blamed for harbouring the ULFA top leadership and helping Jehadi groups plan terror attacks in India, a country on the perennial brink of martial law. Most of all, it was a country with a deep distrust of India. The change this month was more than astounding- as the two sides agreed to a slew of transit-trade routes through Bangladesh, a billion-dollar credit line from India, ceding of 111 Bangladeshi enclaves held by India for decades, rounded off with a clear statement from Sheikh Hasina that anti-Indian terror will not be tolerated on Bangladeshi soil. Coming as it does after the handing over of ULFA leader Rajakhowa, it's a statement New Delhi has reason to take seriously.

To even the most optimistic peacenik or fan of the subcontinent's favourite game, a similar turnaround in relations with Pakistan is unlikely. And yet much is possible if the leadership on both sides heed the words of a man connected to another famous sport- American basketball coach John Wood, who simply said, "Never let what you cannot do interfere with what you can."