Lok Sabha '09: J vs K in Tamil Nadu

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In the 1960s Tamil Nadu politics was defined by a clash of ideologies, the Dravidian versus the Congressman was the principal driver in a political debate. One represented the aspirations for a regional power and the other hoped to keep the region part of a national ideology. The two ideologies found several faces and personalities to represent them, if the Dravidians had Anna the Congressmen had Kamaraj, but despite the existence of such strong personalities the clash was always one of ideologies and not of personalities.

Since the 1970s we saw the start of inter-Dravidian rivalry and the emergence of M.G.Ramachandran as a rival to Karunanidhi. The two were different faces of the same Dravidian ideology and hence the differentiator became the two personalities and not their ideologies. The end result was the beginning of an era where politics was defined by a clash of personalities. Issues, ideology and policies took a back seat. The electorate had swung several times on who did what to the other leader, who was the villain and who the hero.

The exit of MGR and then the entry of Jayalalithaa as his successor only made the bitter personality clash even more bitter. Since the 1990s the Jayalalithaa versus Karunanidhi battle has often taken politics in the state to unacceptable lows, vindictive political witch hunts are carried out by the personality in power and the people of the state stand a mute witness only to be forced to choose between two sides of the same coin every five years in their secret ballot.

2009 Lok Sabha is no different, it will be yet another J versus K election. It's a divide that's perhaps far deeper than the other J&K that we know, Jammu and Kashmir. Jayalalithaa 2009 is the opposition force hoping to gain from an anti-incumbency vote and she hopes that a sense of resentment over the severe power crisis in the state would turn into votes for her. She's ignored the BJP's call for an alliance and went Leftwards, that's because the Left is stronger than Hindutva in Tamil Nadu. She's now hoping that the Jumping Jack of Dravidian politics, PMK's Dr. Ramadoss would desert the UPA and arrive at her doorstep and that seems like a real possibility.

Karunanidhi, on the other hand, is recovering from a surgery on his lower back and also from the fiasco he created for himself in the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. He threatened to resign from power for the sake of Tamils, but time proved that those threats were empty. His family's rise is seen with repulsion both by the electorate and by several grassroot workers within the DMK. But what he has going for himself is an alliance. The Congress is the third force in Tamil Nadu and has traditionally proved to be the ally which tilts the scale in favour of one of the two Dravidian parties. This time Karunanidhi hopes the Congress would also rope in actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth and when that happens he would be heading a formidable electoral alliance.

The net result makes Tamil Nadu perhaps one of the critical states in these elections. The DMK Congress can not even dream of retaining the 39 seats they won last time. But they are hoping for atleast 25. The AIADMK hopes to demolish the DMK and as the voter decides that clash is yet again between J and K, anti-incumbency versus a strong electoral alliance.