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4 pm Oct 31, 2013

Will the four state Assembly Elections set the tone for Lok Sabha Polls?

CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS pre-poll surveys predict a BJP wave in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Delhi is staring at a possibility of hung assembly. What is the significance of the survey? Is it the end of road for Congress? Will it have a major impact on the coming Lok Sabha elections? Join a live web chat with Prof. Sandeep Shastri at 4 PM on Thursday.
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21 questions answered | No question pending
  • Do you see possibility of UPA3 led by congress with support from Thrid front to keep NDA out of power? Asked by: abc
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri ABC, it depends on the numbers and who gets how much. Remember, that UPA is in the alliance in power. If it falls short of a majority by a small margin, then some parties from the Third Front could help prop up the government. However, if the Third Front does reasonably well and the Congress (Not UPA) does badly, it could well lead to the non Congress UPA moving closer to the Third Front. It may then be politically prudent for the Congress to support a Third Front and bide its time, consolidate its strength before another election.
  • Do you think in view BJP should react less to attacks on NAMO on secular credentials and talk more and more on development price rise and solutions to people's problems? Asked by: abc
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri ABC, that is exactly what the BJP is focussing on. Steer the debate in the direction of Development, Impact of Price Rise rather than a focus on the controversies surrounding their Prime Ministerial candidate.
  • what will be d scenario in lok sabha polls in west bengal?... will it be TMC or left ?... or BJP will make itself count? Asked by: bishal
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri We have no tracker poll in WB now Bishal. The poll done a few months ago showed that the TMC was holding its ground A Lok Sabha elections several months from now could throw up many surprises. It would depend on the work and image of the state government in the next few months, the nature of alliances that develop in the state and nationally.
  • With so many corruption charges , the congress is starring down the barrel. With your predictions and the anti-incumbency mood of the central government, what will be the morale of the congress? Asked by: ganesh, Oman
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Ganesh, the trends as projected provide very little good news for the Congress. It surely is going to impact on their morale.
  • will AAP really do as well as projected in the absence of a cadre/organisation or is the media getting carried away ? Asked by: Madhusudan
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Madhusudan a lot of people thought the AAP is a media creation. The Delhi developments are proving other wise. They may no thave the conventional style cadre of the traditional parties but have a dedicated band of what they call volunteers who have helped the party gain greater visibility
  • Do u see a consolidated third front before 2014 elections? Asked by: BSG
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri If the Third Front is to learn from its experience of 1989 and 1996, it would be in their best interest to work out a visible and viable pre poll alliance. Also, to establish their credibility they would need to go to the voter as an alliance which is able to offer a credible alternative to the NDA and UPA.
  • If there is hung assembly in Delhi and AAP getting 20 seats then do you see possibility on re election in Delhi? Asked by: abc
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri ABC, an assembly in Delhi with no party with a majority will be a huge challenge. AAP has clearly stated that they will neither support the Congress or the BJP. It is difficult to imagine the BJP and Congress coming together. There could be several scenarios. It would also depend on how close is the largest party to the half way mark. Can they manage with independents. To respect the voter decision, we could well have a minority government, which if it happens, is likely to be short lived.
  • Delhi is split. MP and Chattisgarh indicate no anti incumbency factor. Rajasthan is going to be tough for Congress. Does this scene clearly indicate that state elections are local matters and factors of centre will not play a role in the selection for the state ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Sundar that is very interesting point you make. First, state elections in India are often fought on state issues and the performance, record and achievements of the state government matters. Secondly, if the record of the state government has not been very encouraging, the voters may look to a viable opposition at the state level. Thirdly, if the same party is in power at the Centre and the State, voters could assess the performance of the party when deciding.
  • The pattern as shown by survey is almost similar to what happened in December 2008, except for the Delhi and Rajastan results. Does this actually tell us something about the 2014 elections? Asked by: Krishnan
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Krishnan you are right in terms of the actual state assembly results. However, one important difference (and that is crucial) is that in December 2008 the rating of UPA I was not as low as the rsting of UPA II in October 2013.
  • IF the AAP does well, does it have any implications for the party system in India? Asked by: Krishnan
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri It surely does.... Delhi has traditionally been a two party state. Also, it would confirm the national trend of an authentic multi party system.
  • The Congress probably is the only national party now with bases all over the country,albeit low in some areas. Will this help in Congress continue to head UPA 3 in 2014 ?/ Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Many would agree with you Sundar that the Congress has a national presence... However it is struggling to establish that in two of the largest states of India - UP and Bihar. Among the so called `national` parties it may have the widest presence, will that translate into votes is a different question
  • What could be the SURPRISE in 2014 for public,which was indicated by the PM,when saying about his confidence of UPA 3 coming into position in 2014 ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Sundar your guess is as GOOD as mine!
  • The GE of 2014 being far away is it not right to ignore the findings of survey done now ? Electorates remember more of recent past events to decide on which side they would go.The so called swing of such voters being decisive to what level would the present indications point to a possible result in 2014 ?/ Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Sundar, you are right that the Tracker Poll and other Surveys are much before the GE of 2014. It would also be wrong to conclude that the Survey impacts on the final voter preference. What the Tracker Poll shows is the mood as it is today which could give an indication of the direction of the public sentiment
  • Will it be NaMo VS. RaGa or NaMo Vs. MMS in 2014 ?/ Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Sundar, it does not look to be a NaMo vs MMS. The Congress atleast is not pitching it that way. Given the extensive campaigns of the party Vice President, NAMO RAGA it could well be!
  • Is there a cohesiveness possible OUT OF IDEOLOGY in the attempted Third Front formation.? BIHAR,UP,Odisha,Tamilnadu,- looks like a strong challenger - will it work out ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri The Non BJP, Non Congress is trying to bring together those forces in the political arena which are uncomfortable aligning with either of the two `big` parties. Given the authentic multi party system we have, it would be wrong to write of the potential and capacity of the third front
  • Will Corruption remain a non-issue in GE 2014 ?? If so is it good for the country ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri If Tracker Poll has categorically demonstrated anything it is the impact of corruption as perceived by the people. It seems to be a huge factor in Delhi and in the assessment of the UPA II across the four states
  • Will congress retain it's Lok Sabah positions in the state of Haryana and AP ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri It is difficult to say sundar. Our last tracker poll showed that the Congress was on the backfoot in both states. In AP, a lot will depend on the way `Telangana` and its creation goes
  • All that a poll survey can show is a momentum trend ....BJP is having it in its side..Can this be read as an Anti congress trend which will carry till 2014... Modi then stands to benefit as he is consolidating the anti Congress trend Nationally .. Asked by: Jay
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri You are right Jay... the Tracker Poll tries to provide a feel of the public mood at a given point of time. The 2014 election is some time away and a range of political developments in this time could dramatically alter that mood
  • i am a BJP supporter. Slightly disappointed with the survey for Delhi. Do you think AAP will take outside support of BJP?. whom do you think AAP hates more, congress or the BJP?. kejriwal sid that harshwardhan is manmohan of BJP. does this tell you a lot? Asked by: anand
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri AAP had maintained that it is equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP. The survey shows that it seems to be cutting into the vote share of both parties in equal measure. Kejriwal has made it clear yesterday that AAP will not align with either part in the event of no one getting a majority
  • what about the fight bet NAMO & rahul gandhi? who is winning? Asked by: anand
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri For that you will need to wait for this evening's programme Anand. It specifically focuses on that issue
  • In the hindsight hasnt NaMo proven he is much smarter than the media percieved him to be??? He is actually bringing BJP to forefront and has sure helped Chances of BJP unlike people in the media wanted it to be Asked by: Jay
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Jay the positive momentum for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh is linked to the public perception of the good work done by the state government and the image of the Chief Minister. In Rajasthan too, the BJP Cm candidate is seen as a positive force. The Modi factor will truly be tested in the Lok Sabha poll