ibnlive » Chat

4 pm Dec 17, 2012

Final phase of the Gujarat elections

Can Narendra Modi better the tally of 2007 in 2012? Here's your chance to know what the political pundits think.
35 questions answered
  • with all the firing and crossfiring of Politicians verbally ,Gujarat must be heaving a sigh of relief ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar This crossfire actually happens to be a healthy part of democracy and it helps all of us to view and review our ideas of good politics, good governance and good leadership.
  • Has the election commission been an effective agency as an INDEPENDENT one in Conduct of the elections ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Absolutely! Over the years, the efficiency, effectiveness and independence of the ECI has certainly increased to ensure greater legitimacy for the election process.
  • Will the results of Gujarat state alone or the results of Gujarat and HP states have any impact on survival of UPA 2 at the centre ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Not really. These election outcomes will add to the already ongoing calculations for next elections, but nothing more dramatic than that!
  • It was Presidential style of election in Gujarat is an observation. Is this OK in Democracy ?? Should not the members of the winning party decide on the leader after the election results as mentioned by congress ?/ Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar It was presidential only in part--ie, only BJP had made it clear as to who will lead their government. When one leader puts the focus on him or her, it is better described as a plebisciary election--meaning election that has been transformed into an plebiscite on a leader.
  • 115 and above - - only then victory is creditworthy say some. what is your observations on this ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Nothing much on this till the 20th!
  • in the event of Amit Shah succeding will it reflect the mandate against terror groups,whatever may be the means ?/ Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar In elections, it sometimes does happen that persons accused of various offences get elected. That should not prejudice the judicial process. Charges against him are pretty serious and deserve impartial judicial examination.
  • Does Modi really enjoy edge in this elections? Asked by: Kartik
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Our post poll survey results will be announced today evening so better watch the programmes on CNN for that!
  • what does higher women voters signifies today ? Asked by: mukesh
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar In many parts of India, women turnout is higher than men turn out. So, I would not read much into it in terms of effect on election outcome. It indicates the integration of women voters into the political process better than in the past.
  • Why do everyone keep mentioning caste configuration in Gujarat? Especially in tha case that Modi hasnot talked about in. Should Modi be praised at least in this aspect ? Asked by: Abhinav
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar It is not necessary that someone has to talk caste. Caste in most parts of India continues to influence voters' choice because caste is a socially relevant factor shaping people's identities and interests. In Gujarat too, the same applies and therefore, one keeps mentioning caste as a crucial factor--by the way, it is caste blocs rather than individual castes.
  • In the event of a resounding victory or a victory with better margins, are we to believe that people can be so easily hoodwinked in believing that all is well in Gujarat?..or is it because the opposition has done nothing to instill confidence in the people?..are we such a lame population? Asked by: JK
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Supposing that BJP wins again, it would mean many things--a) Modi has been able to popularize his idea of Gujarati asmita and Hindu nationalism; b) Congress has not been able to organizationally compete with BJP; c) Congress in Gujarat does not have a leader of the stature and competence of Modi; d) relatively speaking BJP government has done a satisfactory job in the state --...etc. Therefore, it would not be just hoodwinking, it would also not mean a mandate to exclude communities from governance.
  • Sir Creek in rann of kutch was a subject of heated exchanges . To which parties advantage will the subject go,in as far as improving vote counts. Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Such controversies often tend to have very limited effect; however, given BJP's and Modi's propensity to play up emotional issues, it might have some benefit for them.
  • Do you think that we should stop raising minority and majority bogie in elections ? In the light of the Modiji's slogan that he respects 6 crore gujaratis equally Asked by: G. Ramadas
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Modiji's slogan apart, data shows that Muslims of Gujarat are ghettoised, more backward and somewhat frightened. Therefore, the issue is more than a divide between majority and minority--it is an issue of broader idea of inclusive governance and development.
  • Post Gujarat Victory does BJP have the courage to take Modi out of Gujarat for Election Campaign in Karnataka to Save BJP image there ?? Asked by: VoiceofIndians
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Modi has already been campaigned in other states and he surely will be projected as a major leader of the party .
  • Do you think that Narmada water has reached most of Gujarat ? Asked by: G. Ramadas
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar This is a contentious issue and even within Gujarat, there are areas that still do not receive water. Water being a precious resource, it is always less equitably shared and rural areas get less water everywhere, Gujarat is no exception.
  • What was the prime issue in the Election this time. Where they different for the 1st phase and the final phase Asked by: Narayan
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar No difference phase wise. The issues were Modi's style of leadership and BJP government's record of development which critics pointed out to be somewhat lopsided.
  • can congress and gpp make an alliance govt after 20th? Asked by: avishek
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar If their combined tally is more than 91!
  • Will modi's PM credentials be damaged if he gets slender majority? Asked by: Kartik
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Most certainly.
  • Do you agree Modi is stuborn on denying democratic represeentation for Muslims in Gujarat by totally ignoring them not even single seat out of 182? Asked by: Syed
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Modi's and BJP's record about treatment of the Muslim community has been a topic of hot debate. The issue is not just non-representation but that of non-justice to those affected by the violence of 2002 and a lack of remorse for what happened then.
  • Would Modi's style of functioning / propaganda be acceptable to the BJP's Central leadership?..specially when they have been trying their best to appear more secular then they are..will it be back to the Hindutva agenda? Asked by: JK
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar BJP's central leadership is currently devoid of agenda and is mostly clueless. Therefore, they --at least some of them--may think that Modi is their saviour. We must also remember that the BJP is a party that basically believes in exclusionary politics. In that there is no difference between the party in general and Modi's politics.
  • Will you agree Modi is a lifetime PM Candidate joining Advani's club ? Asked by: VoiceofIndians
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar That would be a harsh assessment! But if Modi does not rectify his image--and quickly and honestly--I am afraid, your assessment may prove right.
  • What actually makes a political leader ? Ability to bring about tangible development and human progress or ability to whip up rhetorics and rouse raw passions, however crude they maybe ? Asked by: Shirish
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Leaders who live off emotions are called demagogues and they do not sustain popularity without wedging conflicts. Better leaders always rely more on consensus, development and plurality.
  • Last time also Media predicted a rout for Modiji in Sourashtra. What happened was the opposite. Do you think this time also in Sourashtra, Modiji will be able to win handsomely ? Asked by: G. Ramadas
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Nobody is predicting a rout in Sourashtra, but wait till the evening for a reporting on the post poll carried after the first phase.
  • Is it right high turnout leads to Anti-incumbency in Gujarat ? Asked by: Hari
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar High turnout does not indicate a tide against the ruling party --in fact it depends on the context as to what turnout figures really mean.
  • Do you think there is a tidal wave in favour of Narendrabhai and do you think he will be able to win 170 seats Asked by: G. Ramadas
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar No projections during this chat!
  • what if Modi wins around 135-140 seat.. what it means for him and for the congress party which would remain power less for 22 years Asked by: shivang
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Congress is already weak, so it would grow weaker in Gujarat. For Modi, it would be a certification for his personalized power.
  • As of now both phases has seen higher voter turn out. Will this reflect a stronger polarisation or fragmentation of Votes ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar No particular fixed rule about how turnout behaves. Turnout is a result of higher mobilization of voters by contending parties.
  • Do you agree Modi should keep his tails in tact post Gujarat Victory. Because in Karnataka BJP is almost ready to lose their grounds even victorious Modi cant save them ? Asked by: VoiceofIndians
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Gujarat and Karnataka are two different stories. In Gujarat, Modi is the undisputed leader of the party and a victory at this stage will make him more self centered. Humility is certainly not among his virtues.
  • why congress used different strategy in Guj election, this strategy may give some result ? Asked by: Hari
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Congress was mostly without a strategy. Congress was also without leader and agenda.
  • Do you think hatred amonsgst musilms for Modi has rescinded? Asked by: Kartik
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Don't know if Muslims hate or fear Modi. But over the period of time, it is possible that a small section among Muslims would be ready to do business with BJP.
  • Keshubhai Patel be a real dent in Narendra Modi's campaingn? Asked by: Raj Khare
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Keshubhai does carry influence but Modi's rhetoric is unlikely to be very much dented by him.
  • If modi loses then what will happen to bjp's chances in 2014? Asked by: avishek
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar A big if...but no indications as of now in that direction.
  • Shooting of a MLA of Panchmahal on election day. IS violence gaining entry to gujarat ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Such stray violence need not define the election process. More than violence, it is the culture of silence and fear that might be worrying for people of the state.
  • This phase a more important one to MODI has come after the visit of Int.Minister of PAK. His utterances caused an uproar and BJP made a lot of noise on it.Will it have any swing effect for BJP ? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar There was little time left for BJP to capitalize on that.
  • Going in an official car in convoy with his supporters to cast his vote has made Congress file a complaint against Narendra MODI will this have any serious consequences ?? Asked by: sundar1950in
  • Dear Sir, Great Pleasure to be chatting with you. Will Narendra Modi emulate himself - get more than 117 of last time. One gets to think - mainly from the media that - win he will for sure - no of seats lesser Asked by: Narayan
  • Prof Suhas Palshikar Seats prediction is always a tough job and I ordinarily do not go into that. Real issue is not the number of seats, but what Modi plans ahead--in terms of his new agenda or redefining his leadership.

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Prof Suhas Palshikar
Director, Lokniti Research Programme, CSDS