5 pm Dec 18, 2012
CNN-IBN post poll findings: Modi set to retain power in Gujarat and dead heat in Himachal Pradesh
Join Suhas Palshikar of CSDS in a webchat on what to expect in the states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as we all await the results on 20th.
28 questions answered
- What is the % of Muslims (Minorities) voted for BJP? Is there an incirease? If so is it not high time for Congress to shut its mouth regarding Godhra? Asked by: Raghavan
- what does the survey find. Is there a swing in favour of Modi or is the swing against the Congress. What are the reasons for the Swing either way Asked by: Narayan
- Prof Suhas Palshikar The post poll survey indicates that Modi's popularity is very much in tact. While final reports from those areas where voting took place on 17th are yet awaited, we can safely say that Modi is the most popular leader in Gujarat today and this does not involve any great swing either way.
- Sir, Would be interesting know what was the sample size taken for this survey. Also, what is the confidence level for the result Asked by: Narayan
- Prof Suhas Palshikar We went to the same sample that we had taken for the pre poll. For actual rate of achievement in places where voting ended only on 17th, we do not have final figures as yet--or post poll in those areas would end only tonight. For the areas of first phase of voting, the achieved sample size was 1800 from 120 locations ( polling station areas). We do not expect a variation of more than 3 percent because our sample is fairly representative in terms of women, SCT/ST etc--parameters for which there is a test based on actual census figurs.
- Will it be a big morale boost for Congress if it manages a win in Himachal.Will it give a chance to the Congress party to make it a point that they are back on track? Asked by: Ankit
- I guess Gujarat is a foregone conclusion but on which party do you put your money in Himachal Pradesh? Asked by: Ankit
- Prof Suhas Palshikar In the case of Himachal, I would rather save my money than put it on any party! Our survey shows that both have almost equal chance--with a difference on one percent in favour of the Congress. While a substantial section wants BJP back in power, to balance that finding, we also have a finding that Virbhadra Singh is the most popular leader in the state.
- I voted and knew the young generation between 18-40 are with Modi and you can say out of 10 9 guys are voted and 7 for Modi? So what do you say about seats? Our project 135 to 140 for BJP? And i m interested about HP as i visited in May and there were 6 like BJP and 4 congress? what will be the result over there? Asked by: Atir
- Prof Suhas Palshikar It is very difficult to counter personal impressions. What you are reporting are basically personal impressions and social science and election polling have for quite some time, adopted more rigorous methods for making estimates of this sort. Having said that, one would agree that in Gujarat, BJP is in a comfortable position. yet, it would be unlikely that BJP would end up getting something like 70 percent vote as you estimate. Particularly in HP, both around end October and now after the election, we found that both Congress and BJP are almost equally poised.
- A Big Modi win would make Nitish Rethink on Modi as PM idea? Asked by: KS Prasad
- Prof Suhas Palshikar Not necessarily. One, leaders from other states too have huge popularity in their states. Two, outside one's own state, most of these leaders including Modi have limited popularity. Three, in a coalition format, Prime Minster will be elected on the basis of acceptability among partners and Modi has yet to gain that. So, Nitish Kumar may not support Modi just because he has proven his popularity in Gujarat.
- Sir, do you think that the points of development and growth are now palatable to middle class and BPL people? Do consider precedent of 2004 debacle of NDA's India Shining campaign! Asked by: Sharik Laliwala
- Prof Suhas Palshikar Growth and Development are indeed ideas with broad appeal. The trouble is that parties need to explain what they mean by these ideas and where they start for implementing them. A survey after 2004 showed that not just the poor but even middle class voters felt that new economic policies benefitted only the rich. Such impression is to the disadvantage of the parties in power. After that, as MP and Chhattisgarh have shown development with a focus on rural development and poverty alleviation appeals to the voters better. IN the INdia Shining campaign, the disaffection caused by the pro-rich image was neglected and BJP had to pay its price.
- Can Modi polarize Hindus across India to counter act the polarization of muslims against him if he moves to center? Asked by: IBN Viewer
- Prof Suhas Palshikar The BJP tried to bring Hindus together in the period of 1989-96. That did not work. Therefore, it is unlikely that Modi would be able to do that now. He may not try that. Instead, he would try combining the Hindutva appeal with a claim as to how he developed Gujarat. Secondly, while in Gujarat, Muslims have desisted from voting for BJP since 2002, it is wrong to say that Muslims voted as a vote bank across the country. Their vote varies state-wise and in some cases even within the state a more nuanced vote takes place by Muslims. This is true of many other communities/caste blocs also.
- Extrapolating the results, and the fact the average Indian is dissatisfied by the Congress govt at the Center, if BJP does project Modi as the PM candidate, what are it's chances of victory in 2014?? As opposed to going into the elections with no clear candidate? Asked by: Kart
- Prof Suhas Palshikar Assuming that your other claims are accurate--that people are dissatisfied with Congress generally, it would still be tough for BJP to win with Modi as the leader. Modi is undoubtedly popular in Gujarat but his popularity in other states and his acceptability to BJP's partners is yet untested.
- Why does media keep harping on factor tht Modi is not acceptable to other parties?.Shiv Sena,Akalis and Jayalalitha seem to have no prob with him.Naveen Patnaik also has never raised any concerns.So tht leaves only JD(U). Asked by: IBN Viewer
- How much of a bearing will the Gujarat polls have on the fate of the nation leading into the general elections in 2014??... Asked by: Pratik
- Prof Suhas Palshikar For next Lok Sabha elections, Gujarat would have limited relevance--this is a state where BJP anyway is very strong and so winning it does not add any thing new to BJP's strength. One factor of course becomes pertinent and that is Modi's imminent entry into national level politics.
- You in response to another question in an earlier chat the BJP will win reduce majority. Have you changed your view? Asked by: Manish Sharma
- Prof Suhas Palshikar As of now, I have data only from the first phase areas and it indicates that BJP is comfortably onto the road to victory. As for seats, we at the CSDS do not do seat projections. Professor Rajeeva Karnadikar, who is an expert in statistical modelling, does that. We would know about full post poll outcomes only tomorrow.
- So who are the parties Modi is not acceptable to? I only find JD(U) and maybe TDP(though tht might change as he is desperate in AP).Who else? Asked by: IBN Viewer
- Prof Suhas Palshikar Trinmool if it joins NDA besides JDU and TDP again, if it joins NDA. The issue is that many parties may not publicly declare their views on Modi but when it comes to negotiating with BJP, the issue of NDA leadership may arise. Secondly, for BJP to be able to form a government, it would be necessary to attract more partners rather than being smug about Modi's acceptability to some of its existing partners.
- But Modi (all demons aside) does have the image of being incorruptible, dedicated... as opposed to the present UPA govt which is plagued by economic and fiscal paralysis... not to mention the plethora of corruption cases that are discovered monthly... Do you believe that the BJP, with Modi at the helm, will still find it hard to topple this apathetic govt? Asked by: Kart
- do you think schemes like adahar and direct cash transfer, and free smart phones will be a game changer for congress in 2014? Asked by: Sumit Ahlawat
- Prof Suhas Palshikar The Congress surely hopes it to be so--last time around in 2009, the Congress went to polls with NREGA and few other schemes. Cash Transfers can certainly potentially change the scenario--if implemented effectively. One must also remember that in 2009, a more robust economy was an additional factor, something that is not on Congress' side this time.
- Modi's main support base is the urban middle classes and the youth. Post delimitation, the urban seats have gone up in Gujarat. Is this one of the reasons for the expected margin of Modi's victory? If yes, do you see this benefiting him on the national stage also? Asked by: Svetaketu
- Prof Suhas Palshikar A) Number of fully or mostly urban seats in Gujarat is still not more than half. B) Modi's popularity actually cuts across locality, though in urban areas he is more popular. C) At the all India level, this becomes less pertinent because there the party's organizational strength in each state will matter more.
- The Congress has 11 MP's from Gujrat. If they lose them they could be in trouble. Asked by: Manish Sharma
- Prof Suhas Palshikar In principle, yes. But last time, Gujarat voted slightly differently in Assembly (2007) and Lok Sabha ( 2009). When elections are very close to each other the effect is more palpable. In some states, like Karnatka, we also witness a growing tendency of voting to different parties in LS and Assembly. But broadly, you are right-- Congress MPs from Gujarat would find it difficult to get reelected.
- What do you the perceive the BJP stategy will be in 2014?..Will they project Modi as their leader against his Congress counterpart Rahul Gandhi??.. Asked by: Pratik
- Also, there is an obvious dearth of leaders at the national level. I would wager that 2014 might just become a battle of individual personalities. Would you agree with that assessment?? Judging the current crop of candidates across the spectrum; Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam, Chidambaram, Mayawati, Sushma, Jaitley and Modi... the choice, for any discerning, forward-looking, development-oriented citizen, is quite clear. Asked by: Kart
- Prof Suhas Palshikar I am sure there are many candidates for top position in 2014. But our elections are not presidential elections and PM is decided through parliamentary majority which itself may be based on coalitions. Citizens do have a somewhat broad choice with many contenders for top position. I am not sure that the choice is obvious--everyone will have their own political and ideological considerations in preferring one over the other.
- Modi’s relevance in Gujarat v/s Modi’s relevance in National Politics….do you think Modi will want to leave Gujarat and try and become one of the leaders in BJP or would prefer being the king here in gujarat… Asked by: JK
- There are many regional parties and respective leaders quite popular in state but not able to make national like Nitish, Karunanidhi,Mulayam, Jayalaitha, Mamata etc but do you think Modi has advantage as he comes from a national party with sound ideological base? Asked by: Anvesh
- Can Narendra Modi relate to the youth of the Nation as Rahul Gandhi can?.. Asked by: Pratik
- As a follow up to my question on Hindu mobilization.Isn't it correct tht Modi can mobilize even more effectively than wht happened in 89-96 because the medium has changed.He can and does reach out to millions using media which was not there in 89-96.Internet,3D etc.Also urban India has increased from 89-96 and Urban India is perfect for the Modi effect? Asked by: IBN Viewer
- Prof Suhas Palshikar In the first place the appeal of Hindutva today is not as strong as it was in early 90s. Secondly, there is a vast India beyond cities and beyond internet. That India is less interested in Hindutva. So, Modi will have to redefine himself if he wants to move onto the national stage.
- What's the role of middle class in Modi's win? Asked by: Tapan Mishra
- Does he not have opposition from within the BJP?..you think that he is capable of acting against dissent on the national level? Asked by: JK
- from your answers its clear Gujarat is for BJP but Modi Mantra may not work in 2014 general election. As Ambanis, Tata,Amitab Bachan or many national icons give arguments in favor of Modi, Will it have any impact on youth of India? Asked by: Aravind
- rath Yatra / babri Masjid incident got the BJP from 2 seats to 80...Do you think Modi victory in gujarat can become another such incident for the BJP...Will it really help if Modi gets to the centre? Asked by: JK
Hosted byProf Suhas Palshikar
Director, Lokniti Research Programme, CSDS
More chats with:Prof Suhas Palshikar
Director, Lokniti Research Programme, CSDS