ibnlive » Chat

4 pm Mar 19, 2014

2014 Lok Sabha poll trends

Most political parties have come out with their candidates list. Join a live web chat with Lokniti national coordinator Sandeep Shastri on the 2014 Lok Sabha election trends.
23 questions answered
  • Delhi loksabha elections: In Delhi assembly seats AAP had fielded mostly AAM Admi which was USP of the party. Dont you think they will pay the price of having most of loksabha candiates in delhi like celebrities Asked by: Anshul
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Anshul, during the Delhi Assembly elections, most AAP candidates were new faces not well known in the political domain. For the Lok Sabha poll, AAP has taken the decision to field some `high profile` candidates. This has surely led to criticism that KHAS AADMI is getting preference. However, must also point out that as the person has gain greater visibility it tends to attract `celebrities` . Further, given the expanse of a Lok Sabha seat and the focus of the lower house of Parliament, there may be a need to field candidates who can play a pivotal role at the national stage.
  • The entire election is fought over Gujrat Model of Development. I saw NDTV Ravish Kumar report on Gujrat. It showed development in few pockets just like any other state. The people in this country did nt knew that politicians rallies feed was sponsored by political party. There is no cross check no reporting on Gujrat Model Of Development. Why?? Asked by: Venkatesh
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Venkatesh, one healthy development is that there is an open debate now in the society and in the media on the issue. This I am sure will result in a more informed debate
  • Does this election not strange ? The party in power is no where. And the congress is not exposing targeting BJP especially its PM candidate as fearlessly as AAP. At least in Media it looks like fight between AAP and BJP. As a 17 year old boy I wish to know AAP prospects. It has given tickets in Bihar where it has no organistaion. What AAP wants to gain? Asked by: Venkatesh
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Vekatesh, as a young 17 year old I salute your keen interest in politics. You are spot on target when you say that the ruling Congress does not seem to display the energy and enthusiasm a Lok Sabha election campaign warrants. AAP's gaining visibility is because it has taken on the BJP/NDA and its Prime Ministerial candidate. Now gaining visibility need not necessarily translate itself into securing votes and more importantly crossing a threshold of votes that are needed to win. Our past Tracker Poll showed that the AAP has gained electoral salience in Delhi, Haryana and parts of Western UP. We will need to wait to see whether there is any change shown in the next Tracker Poll
  • Hi Sir, Good Afternoon, Almost all the polls and surveys indicating, BJP's bellwether will continue till tha last phase of election. Based on the surveys conducted by your team and other agencies,and announcement of the candidates,we can reach our own conclusions that BJP is in driver seat. Please don't compare the surveys gave BJP ahead in 2004 elections and we all know what happened. Asked by: Jagannath Pujar Bangalore
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Jagannath you are right about 2004. We constantly make the point that the Tracker Poll projects the national mood at a given point of time. Yes candidates and nature of campaign can make some difference
  • Sandeep ji- Why is AAP getting so much coverage considering that no gives them a chance of winning more than 5 seats? In contrast there is hardly any news of whats happening in comparatively bigger parties like BSP or for that matter in TDP, YSR etc. Asked by: S Chaturvedi
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Chaturvedi, your concern is expressed by many. AAP gaining media space may be linked to its rise to prominence being linked to Delhi. Further, its strategy of taking on the apparent principal front runner - the BJP and its Prime Ministerial candidate may also contribute to the same. TDP and YSR Congress are in a direct contest in Seemandhra and are likely to share the seats in that region, which could well be a significant number.
  • Mr Shastri, the fact that a lot of prominent Congress leaders are hesitant to contest the elections indicates the mood within the ruling party... Would you agree? Asked by: Sanam A Khan
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Very much so Sanam. The hesitancy seen in the delay in announcing names for crucial seats and shift of candidates is an indication of the way the Congress is approaching the polls.
  • Dr Shastri, has the announcement of candidates till now provided any indication of a gain for UPA or NDA? Asked by: Vaishnavi Hiremath
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri It is not yet clear Vaishnavi.... must add that in key places there seems to be some rumblings.... for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and for the Congress in Karnataka are clear cases in point
  • Sandeep ji- Do u think Congress and other challengers have been able to put up worthy candidates to stop BJP whereas BJP has done too much reshuffle and experiments? Asked by: S Chaturvedi
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Chaturvedi ji.... on the contrary the Congress has tried to do some reshuffling.... many would say that the stamp of Rahul is clearly visible in the lists.... All major players are carefully looking at their rivals lists when deciding their own.
  • With candidate lists coming out, don't you think that the extreme Modi Wave has started to thin? BJP still seem favorites but the gap might be dwindling? Isn't it? When is the next IBN Election tracker coming up? Asked by: Sourav
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri The next Tracker is due this month end. It would give us an indicator as to whether the BJP has peaked and has begun declining or is on the rise. Critical will be how UP and Bihar votes as these seem to be the swing states this time around. In MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh the BJP appears to have reached a peak...
  • Sir-Do you think Trouble within Shivsena is going to hurt NDA in the state as several of its leaders joining Congress-NCP? Asked by: KS Prasad
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri This is the first LS poll in the post Bal Thackeray phase. The unhappiness seems to be closely linked to the leadership style. It will definitely impact on the alliance. Also remember that the Congress NCP is facing a double anti incumbency - ten years of UPA and 15 years of the State Congress-NCP government
  • I find BJP fielding it's prominent faces from tough constituencies. Congress leaders reluctant to even contest from their bastions. is it a sign of things to come? Will the BJP win 235-240 seats on it's own? Asked by: Manish Sharma
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Manish. have responded to this issue in my earlier answer. Our previous Tracker did project 215-235 seats for the NDA. Reaching 240 for the BJP may be tough given its support base being limited to North and West India. It would need to strike important alliances in South and East India
  • Recently two of the channels aired the opinion polls, where I observed several descrepencies the way they presented thei results. Further they have not posted their findings and metholdogies on thier respective webs as CNN-IBN did. As a statistician, computer scientistst and to some extent social scienits I understood they might have surveyed mimimum sample size and with the historical data/vote trends might have extrapolated the findings, Sir you may say they have their own methodoliges, but this may not be true? any comments please and we are eagery awaiting for your next poll tracker if this may be held in next few weeks time Asked by: PrasadKDV
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Prasad you were right in anticipating that I would not comment on others methodology. We are clear in terms of projecting our methodology for choosing sample and also for making the analysis. Our Tracker is due in the month end
  • Sir. How is the DMDK-BJP-MDMK-PMKIKK-Kongu alliance going to perform in Tamil Nadu especially after reports that Alagiri would support the alliance during 2014 LS polls?? Also how is Congress placed in TN after reports that they would fight alone in the State?? Asked by: Shiladitya Bose
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri The alliance that the BJP has stitched together in TN is interesting. DMK was trying for this alliance and did not succeed. This creates a three cornered contest. The Congress going it alone has never been good news for it
  • Which Political Party or Political Leader is going to be the Dark Horse or surprise element on 16th May 2014 ? Asked by: Aman Ujjwal
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Aman your guess is as good as mine!!! It depends on how close is the NDA to 272. If it is quite a distance then the non-Congress and non-BJP parties ( Third Front/ Federal Front) will be in the lime light. If the NDA is closer to 272, a few allies from the Third / Federal Front would be cultivated. SP, BSP, TMC, BJD and AIADMK will surely be key players then
  • Do you think Jagan will make a difference in Seemandhra? Asked by: Vinay
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Vinay our Tracker Poll showed that YSR Congress was leading the race in Seemandhra. Our next Tracker Poll will provide an indication of whether this trend continues or have the new emerging players made a difference
  • Will Elections be free and fair .What steps have been taken to ensure people satisfaction on election arrangements of conducting it in a democratic free and fair manner Asked by: rajeshpunwani
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Rajesh, the Election Commission has done a creditable job in ensuring a free and fair poll. There is a serious concern of the impact of money power in this election
  • Dr. Shastri- What percentage of the seats will change from forecasted numbers, based on quality of candidates, campaign effectiveness, local issues and what happens from now to respective election dates like controversy with Advani's seat etc.? I dont think, anyone would expect the Congress to do much better than predicted. But would be interesting to know how this will impact BJP - For them the difference between say a 175 and 200+ would be v.v. crucial Regards Asked by: Narayan, Chennai
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Narayan, the Tracker Poll indicated a momentum.... a serious mistake in candidate choice or in the campaign can cost a party seats... or else the momentum is built up on. The important question is whether the BJP has the political space to expand in areas it is seen to be doing well or has it already reached the peak. Critical will be its capacity to have an alliance either before or after the polls
  • What about a postPoll scene where Congress and AAp tied with 100+each?Will a newlook UPA3 is a possibility? Asked by: Shri Arvind Puranik
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Arvind if the AAP where to get 100 + seats like you suggest and if the Congress too gets in that range, your projection of UPA3 is possible. But there are two HUGE If's here!
  • The TINA factor will help Modi to gain 272+ seats and this would be a good thing. The Congress will be decimated and the other regional parties if at all they form a front with Congress support would put the country in Choas and we would go back to the stone ages and may be disintrigate. Asked by: AKS
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri AKS, I am not sure whether the TINA factor only helps BJP or can also help regional players. It is clear to make a bid for power BJP will have to bring in more parties into the NDA
  • Dear Dr.Sandeep, Please give your frank view on the number of seats which BJP will win this time. Nobody and I for sure will hold you against it. Afterall the best guess can also go wrong. Asked by: Anant
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Yes Anant, your guess is as good as mine. I would go with what we projected in the Tracker Poll earlier this month of a 100 seat difference between the NDA and UPA. Our next tracker at the end of the month will provide the latest mood.
  • When is the next IBN Election tracker coming up? Asked by: Manish Sharma
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri End of the month Manish
  • When are you going for next set of projections? Asked by: Sandeep
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri We hope to have our next projections in end March end - April beginning
  • How are the regional players going to spoil BJPs dreams? Asked by: Nav
  • Dr Sandeep Shastri Regional players especially in South and East India and the two batlle ground states of UP and Bihar are going to play a critical role. Given its limited presence in both the East and South (save Karnataka), the BJP will need to seriously look at regional allies here

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Dr Sandeep Shastri
Eminent educationist