New Delhi: After Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee's withdrawal from the UPA-II, the two big players of Uttar Pradesh - Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, each of which have over 20 MPs, could prove to be a life-saver for the government. But analysts say that Mamata's prediction that this government will last just three to six months, may not be completely wrong.
With Mamata Banerjee deciding to part ways, all eyes are on the two leaders - Mulayam and Mayawati - supporting the government from outside.
With Mamata withdrawing support, the UPA is down from 273 MPs to 254, that is 18 short of the half way mark. The UPA needs the outside support of the BSP with 21 and the SP with 22 along with Lalu's RJD to cross the half way mark comfortably.
"We will decide the next course of action later, our support is not linked to the Trinamool Congress," Samajwadi Party leader Ram Gopal Yadav said.
But with Mulayam making his intentions of not joining the government clear, the question remains whether the UPA minus Mamata will be a stable government. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the main opposition party at the moment is playing the wait and watch game, but early elections for some now appear a distinct possibility.
For the Congress, after having bitten the bullet, it would be difficult to take a U-turn. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P Chidambaram are reportedly against any rollback. Perhaps the biggest political crisis of UPA's eight-year tenure would require mediation and negotiation at the highest level.
As for Mamata Banerjee, after having bitten dust during the President polls, the TMC leader has struck back within a month. Early elections work to her advantage. After her exit, it all boils down to how Maya and Mulayam play their cards.
The number game after TMC's withdrawal:
Half way mark: 271
UPA'S strength in Lok Sabha without TMC: 254
UPA (273) - TMC(19) = 254
UPA(273) - TMC(19) + BSP(21) + RJD(4) = 279
The support of the SP(22) to the UPA remains uncertain.
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