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36 HOURS TO GO FOR TRUST VOTE

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All hands on deck, UPA tries to keep Govt afloat

TimePublished on Mon, Jul 21, 2008 at 00:10, Updated on Mon, Jul 21, 2008 at 08:23 in India section

A CLOSE CALL: Manmohan Singh will be the sixth Prime Minister since 1979 to face a trust vote in Parliament.

A CLOSE CALL: Manmohan Singh will be the sixth Prime Minister since 1979 to face a trust vote in Parliament.


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New Delhi: In a dramatic Sunday of negotiations and alignments the going got tough for the UPA after two MPs of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) decided to vote against the Government. CNN-IBN projection shows 267 MPs will vote for the Government and 269 against, which makes UPA now four short of the halfway mark.

The final day before the trust vote left the UPA Government tense, anxious and still firefighting. It was a Sunday of stunning turnarounds when loss and gain followed each other like wave upon wave.

The first blow came early when RLD's Ajit Singh, widely expected to vote for the UPA, suddenly switched sides and decided to go with BSP supremo and UP Chief Minister Mayawati. He gets three-four cabinet posts, a favourable seat sharing agreement with the BSP and in the process redefined the political map in Uttar Pradesh.

The second blow came from the JD(S). Again, it was Mayawati who met Deve Gowda on Sunday afternoon and weaned him away from the Congress.

“We will all come together to topple the Government and that is our one-point agenda,” Mayawati said.

The six seats, which the Congress was banking on could prove to be critical for the Government's survival. Meanwhile, Ajit Singh and Deve Gowda are now clearly looking at political careers beyond the 14th Lok Sabha.

But all is not lost for the Government. Good news came form Jharkhand Mukti Morcha supremo Shibu Soren who drove to UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi's residence with his four MPs.

Chief Minister of Jharkhand Madhu Koda soon followed and after a 90-minute meeting, Soren settled for a cabinet berth, a MOS post and the deputy chief minister's post for his younger son. For the Congress Soren’s demands at this point seemed like small change for a Government battling to survive.

Good news for the UPA is also expected from Omar Abdullah's National Conference. It is widely expected that he would vote for the UPA as the nuclear debate unfolds in Parliament on Monday.

The crisis managers of the UPA have one more night to salvage support, the fight is to either win over Independents and the other undecided MPs or get them to abstain. Now every vote counts and every MP is worth his weight in gold and more.

The trust vote, which former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee lost in 1999, was thought to be the closest parliamentary battle ever. Now this trust vote is promising to be a replay of that dramatic confidence vote. But whatever be the outcome, Indian politics will never be the same again.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS

bulletTrust vote motion is moved as soon as the Lok Sabha meets at 11 am. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to speak first, LK Advani to respond.

bullet CNN-IBN projection: Government little behind in the race for MPs, 267 favour the deal while 269 are against it.
bulletThe five undecided MPs will play a crucial role. The list includes three Independents, one from Mizo National Front and Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress.
bulletAbstentions can be helpful for the UPA. Five BJP MPs didn't turn up at the NDA dinner.
bulletThe actual vote takes place on Tuesday, anytime between 8 and 10 pm.

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