Click to play videoNew Delhi: It's been a bad week for the UPA as far as the polls are concerned and cracks that are beginning to show in the alliances. Key ally PMK walked out of the party and tied up with J Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. Meanwhile, in the north, Lalu Prasad's RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP and Samajwadi Party have got together and formed a front within a front.
This brings us to the question that was asked on CNN-IBN's Weekend Edition with Rajdeep Sardesai: UPA or NDA, who is ahead in the alliance game?
On the panel of experts to answer the question were MP and Congress Spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi; BJP election strategist Sudheendra Kulkarni; Editor-in-Chief of Outlook magazine Vinod Mehta; Deputy Editor the The Hindu Vidya Subrahmaniam; and the Editor of Thuglak Cho Ramaswamy.
Abhishek Manu Singhvi opened the debate by agreeing that the UPA may have lost an ally, the PMK, but the NDA is at a bigger loss right now.
"We are solid. The NDA is down from 23 to seven, whereas we have all our core allies with us. The LJP and the RJD have specifically said that they are part of the alliance. The Samajwadi Party was never formally a part of the alliance in the first place, but they are supporting us,” Singhvi said.
He explained the impression that the UPA was disintegrating is because the allowance of the seat formula of RJD-LJP and the PMK walk-out took place on the same day, but that has now been forgotten.
"There is no permanent rupture unlike what the NDA has had with the BJD in Orissa, unlike what they have had with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. The PMK has gone not because of some coalition breach but because of a regional difference and they could well come back post the polls," he added.
The BJD has walked out of the NDA and now Nitish Kumar is reportedly giving signals that he is upset over Varun Gandhi's statements – something which could be worrying for the NDA.
Kulkarni brushed this aside saying that in the last few months, the NDA had in fact managed to garner new alliances like the AGP in Assam, Ajit Singh's party in Uttar Pradesh and Om Prakash Chautala in Haryana.
"At the moment the momentum shift is with us. The point is that in 2009, the pre-poll alliance which emerges as number one is the one which will most probably form the government in the country and the UPA has disappeared," he stated.
Pre-poll churning
Some believe that the real Third Front will emerge after the elections and that they are just biding their time at the moment and then will decide as per the numbers they get in the polls.
To which Vidya Subhramaniam said, "The feature of this particular election is that everyone wants to keep their options open. The Congress in every state is still deciding between the two major parties and similarly the regional players are also looking at where they can get the kind of ministership or the deputy prime ministership that they are looking for."
Subhramaniam said that she thought the Congress had shot itself in the foot. "The Congress party itself has to first get a particular number of seats to be in the race and also they need a strong pre-poll alliance."
Vinod Mehta said that whatever had happened in this week to the UPA defied all political logic to him. "There is a triangular contest in Bihar and a quadrangular contest in Uttar Pradesh. This will simply help Congress' adversaries."
Singhvi explained that both the major parties – the Congress and BJP – this election round have had a problem with seat adjustments. "This is very different from saying that we have ruptured alliances. Seat adjustments does not mean that we cannot fight elections together. Seat adjustments are our sovereign decision. I want to ask one question – wherever the seats come, are you going to count the LJP, RJD and the Samajwadi with the NDA or with the UPA?"
He said that Congress’ seat adjustments have failed whereas its alliances remain. However, with the NDA, their major alliances have failed.
Cho Ramaswamy stepped in at this point saying that the present situation was in favour of the BJP.
"The BJP at least has some states with it like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and in Bihar they have Nitish Kumar and in Uttar Pradesh they have Ajit Singh and are better placed than the Congress in that state. For the Congress, apart from Andhra Pradesh and maybe Karnataka, I cannot see where it is that they will perform well."
He said that one thing was certain and that all these parties were depending on post-poll alliances.
The final word was that the real battle in these elections will start after the counting day, which is May 16.
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