CNN-IBN-HINDU EXIT POLL | ASSAM
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Assam exit polls: Hung House ahead
Published on Mon, Apr 10, 2006 at 20:28, Updated on Thu, May 11, 2006 at 07:33 in Nation » India section
Tags: Assembly Polls, Assam , New Delhi
New Delhi: The Congress is headed to lose majority in the Assam Assembly and is hanging on to power by the skin of the teeth at the end of the just-concluded Assembly elections.
The CNN-IBN-Hindu exit poll, however, predicted that the ruling party is still likely to emerge the single largest party with a splintered Opposition failing to halt its return to power.
According to the projections of the exit poll, 52-60 seats are going to the kitty of the ruling party while the seat share of the AGP, the main opposition party, has been pegged at 25-31. The BJP seems to be finishing a poor third with 10-15 seats.
In the outgoing House, the Congress had 71 seats as against AGP’s 20 and BJP’s 8. Both the CPI and CPI-M had drawn blank in the 2001 Assembly elections while as many as 27 seats were with other parties and independents (19).
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The exit poll, whose results were announced hours after the second and last phase of elections concluded in Assam on Monday evening, showed an 8% vote swing against the Congress, while the AGP seems to have fared slightly better as compared to the last elections held in 2001.
The BJP buttressed its vote share by just about 2 per cent. But both the parties fell far short when these vote shares boiled down to seats. Even with their combined strength, the two parties seem to have failed to stop Congress' march to power.
Interestingly, the total strength of all the small parties seems to stand slightly ahead of AGP in the seat distribution. These parties include the CPI-M, ASDC, the minority-sponsored Assam United Democratic Front, the Nationalist Congress Party, CPI, Bodoland People's Progressive Front and the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led AGP(Progressive).
The exit poll, conducted by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies, surveyed over 7, 000 people at 260 locations spread over 65 constituencies before and immediately after the polling.
The exit poll projected a 31 per cent vote share for the Congress while the AGP bagged 22 per cent of the total votes. The BJP trailed at the third position with 11 per cent vote share.
The maximum vote share of 36 per cent has, however, gone to the smaller parties, which is a gain of about 6 per cent from that of 2001.
In the leadership race, Tarun Gogoi seems to have come out unscathed with the largest 33 per cent popular vote share while AGP president Brindaban Goswami finished a close second with 31 per cent votes.
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