Click to play videoNew Delhi: The Congress is headed to lose majority in the Assam Assembly and is hanging on to power by the skin of the teeth at the end of the just-concluded Assembly elections.
The CNN-IBN-Hindu exit poll, however, predicted that the ruling party is still likely to emerge the single largest party with a splintered Opposition failing to halt its return to power.
According to the projections of the exit poll, 52-60 seats are going to the kitty of the ruling party while the seat share of the AGP, the main opposition party, has been pegged at 25-31. The BJP seems to be finishing a poor third with 10-15 seats.
In the outgoing House, the Congress had 71 seats as against AGP’s 20 and BJP’s 8. Both the CPI and CPI-M had drawn blank in the 2001 Assembly elections while as many as 27 seats were with other parties and independents (19).
TOP FOUR LEADERS OF ASSAM | ||||||||||||||||
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The exit poll, whose results were announced hours after the second and last phase of elections concluded in Assam on Monday evening, showed an 8% vote swing against the Congress, while the AGP seems to have fared slightly better as compared to the last elections held in 2001.
The BJP buttressed its vote share by just about 2 per cent. But both the parties fell far short when these vote shares boiled down to seats. Even with their combined strength, the two parties seem to have failed to stop Congress' march to power.
Interestingly, the total strength of all the small parties seems to stand slightly ahead of AGP in the seat distribution. These parties include the CPI-M, ASDC, the minority-sponsored Assam United Democratic Front, the Nationalist Congress Party, CPI, Bodoland People's Progressive Front and the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led AGP(Progressive).
The exit poll, conducted by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies, surveyed over 7, 000 people at 260 locations spread over 65 constituencies before and immediately after the polling.
The exit poll projected a 31 per cent vote share for the Congress while the AGP bagged 22 per cent of the total votes. The BJP trailed at the third position with 11 per cent vote share.
The maximum vote share of 36 per cent has, however, gone to the smaller parties, which is a gain of about 6 per cent from that of 2001.
In the leadership race, Tarun Gogoi seems to have come out unscathed with the largest 33 per cent popular vote share while AGP president Brindaban Goswami finished a close second with 31 per cent votes.
Former Assam chief minister and the leader of breakaway AGP, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta -- once a popular face of regionalism in the state -- fared poorly with just 4 per cent people approving him as their choice for leadership.
Sarbananda Sonowal, a young AGP MP and the man who fought and won a prolonged legal battle against the Centre in the Supreme Court to get the controversial IM(DT) Act repealed, emerged as a potential future leader with 1 per cent of the people surveyed naming him as a popular choice for chief ministership.
While the first three -- Gogoi, Goswami and Mahanta -- have been projected as chief ministerial candidates of their respective parties, Sonowal seems to have emerged as a choice for those who didn't favour any of the three.
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi also scored high in the performance scale, with as many as 42 per cent people approving the performance of his government while 25 per cent of those polled said they think an AGP government would be better for the state.
A high 28 per cent, however, thought it hardly makes any difference to them whether the state has a Congress or an AGP government.
On the infrastructure front, the Tarun Gogoi Government scored high on roads, power, school education and law and order while those who polled gave him a thumbs-down on drinking water and health.
After decades of loyalty, the Muslims seem to have ditched the Congress party this time around with a high 21 per cent negative swing in the vote share. The AGP, too, has lost one per cent of its loyal Muslim voters.
This huge Muslim vote share has swung in favour of other parties and the minority-sponsored Assam United Democratic Front seems to have bagged the highest share of this swing vote.
The survey shows a huge setback for Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, former Assam chief minister and a popular leader of the Assam Movement, who seems to have lost 77 per cent approval among AGP supporters and 78 per cent overall following his expulsion from the party, which followed the formation of his breakaway party -- the AGP (Progressive).
Next page: CNN-IBN-Hindu exit poll: Complete results
Assam seat projections
Exit Poll projections for Assam Assembly | |
Party | Projected Seats |
| Congress | 52-60 |
| AGP+ | 25-31 |
| BJP | 10-15 |
| Others | 28-35 |
Total Seats: 126 | |
Assam vote share
Exit Poll projections for Assam Assembly | |
Party | Projected Vote Share |
| Congress | 31 |
| AGP+ | 22 |
| BJP | 11 |
| Others | 36 |
Assam vote swing
Exit Poll projections for Assam Assembly | |
Party | Swing from 2001 polls |
| Congress | -8.75 |
| AGP+ | + 0.9 |
| BJP | +1.7 |
| Others | + 6.1 |
Assam Government performance
Exit Poll projections for Assam Assembly Which government was better? | |
Candidate | Percentage |
| Congress | 42 |
| AGP | 25 |
| No difference | 28 |
| Rest No opinion | |
Performance of State Govt
Performance of the State government | |
Issues | |
| Roads | + |
| Electricity | + |
| Drinking Water | -- |
| School education | + |
| Govt. hospitals | --- |
| Law and order | + |
Support for Mahanta expulsion
Support for Mahanta’s Expulsion | |
| All | 78 |
| AGP supporters | 77 |
Muslim Vote
The Muslim Vote | ||
2006 | Change from 2001 | |
| Congress | 38 | -21 |
| AGP+ | 13 | - 1 |
| BJP | 2 | No difference |
| Others | 47 | +22 |
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