Alliances to decide shape of 15th Lok Sabha

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General Elections 2009 will be all about stitching the right alliances or finding post-poll friends.

In a debate on CNN-IBN’s network CNBC TV-18, Karan Thapar asked the main players - the Congress, the BJP and the Left – to list their friends and give a perspective on what the 15th Lok Sabha will look like.

Karan Thapar: Kapil Sibal, who will be the allies who will put you into power?

Kapil Sibal: Both our present and erstwhile allies, the NCP - who are with us – the National Conference and Mamata (Banerjee).

Karan Thapar: What about the Left? Will you reach out to Sitaram Yechury or will that distance be unbridgeable?

Kapil Sibal: It depends on the numbers, if we are less than 272, we will have to look for others.

Karan Thapar: Will you look to the Left?

Kapil Sibal: i might look to the right. (points towards BJP’s Arun Jaitley, laughs)

Karan Thapar: You might look to Arun Jaitley?

Kapil Sibal: (laughs) I might just look anywhere.

Karan Thapar: Arun Jaitley, beyond the Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal, the JD(U) and the INLD, who are the other parties who might help the BJP?

Arun Jaitley: we have alliances in UP and Assam, you have missed that out.

Karan Thapar: The party in Assam has not joined NDA.

Arun Jaitley: We have an electoral alliance with them. And do not forget the Third front - of which you suggested that Sitaram (Yechury) might become the finance minister and there was a scare of CPM controlling the finance ministry. After the past five years, I think there is huge potential for non-Congress and anti-Congress politics in this country. A number of parties are stationed in the parking lot. They are called Third Front and are seeking their future course of action depending on who has the numbers. I see potential in that position depending on what the numbers are

Karan Thapar: Name one or two of these parties who you think will come to you.

Arun Jaitley: I would be foolish to discuss my post-election strategy on television. I have given you a sufficient clue that the potent force of non-Congressism - the parties that are opposed to the Cong in their own particular states – are hardly likely to dilute their ideologies by joining a Congress coalition.

Karan Thapar: Sitaram Yechury, both of them on either side (Sibal and Jaitley) are determined to poach your friends before they put you into power. Are you scared the Third Front will fracture?

Sitaram Yechury: I am standing equidistant from Cong and BJP (points in the direction of Sibal and Jaitley). That's the distance we want to maintain to ensure a non-Congress alternative.

Karan Thapar: What's the distance between you and Mayawati?

Sitaram Yechury: We have said we will work together post elections. I agree with Kapil and Arun that the final act of the political theatre will be played out only after elections.

Karan Thapar: None of you are revealing who your allies will be and you are all confident that you will find them. Kapil Sibal, if the government you form is dependent on any of the following - Mayawati, Jayalalithaa, Lalu or the Left. What assurance can you give that it will survive for 18 months or even two years?

Kapil Sibal: When this government came to power five years back, there was a rumor that nakshatras (alignment of stars) were bad and that we would collapse in six months. But we've lasted five years.

Karan Thapar: Arun, your colleague Sushma Swaraj has admitted that the NDA won’t be able to form the government on their own. So clearly you will have to make promises. How stable will your alliance be?

Arun Jaitley: Sushma didn’t say what you are suggesting. Pst May 16, a few things definitely wont happen. Kapil and I won’t join hands, Sitaram and I wont join hands, BSP and SP won’t be on the same side, Mamata and Left wont be on the same side, Left-ADMK wont be on the same side. Rest, many possibilities are open. Sitaram heads a group of people, all who want to be part of the next government and so this is a question to be reserved till after May 16.

Karan Thapar: Metropolitan drawing rooms are saying that if Third Front forms a government, it will last only 18 months like the United Front. What can you say to make us believe you will last full five years?

Sitaram Yechury: For the United front, their inability was from the outside - from the Congress. What we aim for is a set of parties who want to be in government. The government will be formed by this set of people and it will be a non-Congress, secular government.

Karan Thapar: Will cong have any supporting role?

Sitaram Yechury: We are working for a non-Congress situation. A political battle has begun and I want to win it with a non-Congress secular government. I’m in the battle to win.

Karan Thapar: If you are defeated, Kapil Sibal, would you extend support to a Third Front government to keep Arun out?

Kapil Sibal: Whichever way the dice falls, Third Front can never form the government. They will need either the BJP’s support or the Congress support. They can never get the numbers. Therefore its theoretically possible to hope that somebody will support you.

Sitaram Yechury: When the 14th Lok Sabha ended, the sum total of MPs for both BJP and Congress was less than 272.

Kapil Sibal: The sum total of your MPs can never be more than the UPA as it exists. Today the Third Front if you count all of them has 78. From 78, if you expect 272, it’s just not going to happen.

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