Click to play videoFor the last four days, the Capital has been waking up to wet, cold and gloomy mornings. On Tuesday, temperatures dropped to an uncomfortable 13 degrees, unusual for this time of the year. It's a scene repeated through North India. A western disturbance, says the weatherman, is creating unexpected rain, hail and snow. So there's rain where shouldn't be rain but there's no snow where there should be snow. On Tuesday, there was rain and hail in Delhi, record snowfall in Shimla, heavy rain across Punjab but no snow in Srinagar.
As North India succumbs to weather games, on India 360 we asked if the unpredictable weather would hit India's economy?
To discuss the question on the expert panel were Climate and Energy Campaigner with Greenpeace India, K Srinivas and Food Policy Analyst, Devinder Sharma. The show was conducted by Sagarika Ghose.
The larger picture
Just when everybody was about to put away their winter clothing and prepare for summer, freak weather across North India has taken people by surprise. Is the sudden change in weather part of a larger pattern of climate change and it becoming much more extreme across the world?
“Definitely. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report has collaborated what we have been witnessing around us. There are several examples. For example the Mumbai floods last year. Then, floods in Rajasthan. Areas that usually don’t have floods witnessed floods. Areas where it doesn’t usually snow, had snow this time. These are all indications of climate change settling in. We need to combat the change and reduce temperatures because that’s something that causes such climatic changes,” said K Srinivas.
But when the deserts flood and rivers run dry, how will it impact the Indian economy?
“The climate change across the world will impact India but the reality is that India is not waking up to it. We say that man is responsible but through what? It’s through industrialisation. On one hand we have big plans for industrialisation and on the other hand we want to combat global warming. We can’t have both at the same time. We need to be clear about what kind of industrialisation we want. We are happy about new models of cars coming into the market but do we care about whether it will add to the global temperature?” said Devinder Sharma.
Facing the brunt of freak weather
It is inevitably the poor who are suffering because when there are unseasonal weather conditions, they are the ones who have to move around into make-shift huts.
There are cases where climate change has had significant impact on the rural economy. For example, in Anantpur district in western Andhra Pradesh, a district infamous for farmers suicides, there is a significant link behind the deaths of many farmers and climate change.
“In areas like AP and in the case of rain-fed areas of the country, which is 70 per cent of India, we have to look at it in a different perspective. In the last 40 years, areas which are rain-deficient, like the dry lands of AP, we have grown crops which require double the amount of water. In Punjab, which has 99.9 per cent assured irrigation, we grow high-yielding variety which requires less water than in AP. So you go deeper and deeper into the ground in search of water. Therefore, the farmers may not be suffering because of climate change,” said Devinder Sharma.
Given the present weather conditions in North India, how will affect the production of wheat?
“In this case the way it is being projected, it is just because the import lobby is very keen on showing that there is going to be a short fall of wheat so we will need to import some. But there is no immediate impact on wheat production,” explained Devinder Sharma.
Blast from the past
Throwing light on the decline of the civilizations of Mohenjodaro and Angkor Wat, Sharma spoke about a book that explained that climate change was responsible for their dying out. Are we headed towards such a civilisational collapse?
“I personally believe so. I would not completely agree with Devinder that it is only because of our cropping pattern that we are overusing water. Precipitation levels are also changing and that will have a great impact on the flow of water into rivers and rainfall. It’s a combination of factors that affects water flow. As far as the rain-fed south Indian rivers are concerned, precipitation is a problem. In North India, it’s a combination of changes in levels of precipitation and retreat and melting of glaciers,” said K Srinivas.
“Yes, the book says that one day New York can also look like Mohenjodaro. If we do not look at what we need to do to combat the issue, we are headed for a crisis,” said Devinder Sharma.
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