Click to play videoCongress President Sonia Gandhi has begun meeting Congress MPs and state leaders to assess the mood within the party for possible General Elections in 2008. Sonia is also all set to hold a massive kisan rally in the Capital’s Ramlila Maidan on March 9. The Congress chief will then travel to Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh to spell out the party’s achievements.
One view emerging out of the Congress’ scheme of things is that the party should wait for another round of state elections later this year before making the final move – a decision that eventually can only be taken by the one person who counts in the Congress, party, President Sonia Gandhi.
It is clear that the Congress is feeling good about its populist Budget, so good that it wants early elections. However, public memory may not be long enough to let the party cash on it. Moreover, the Congress’ current allies have proved to be troublesome on more than one occasion. Early elections would definitely promise an interesting wait-and-watch situation.
Congress leaders say party cadres are euphoric over Chidambaram's Budget. Later in the year, the economy could begin to weaken and prices could rise, however, right now, the mood in the Congress is upbeat.
But is it the right time for Congress-led UPA to call a General Election? That was the topic of debate on CNN-IBN show Face The Nation. On the panel to debate the issue was Congress MP Rashid Alvi, Rajya Sabha MP & Editor-in-Chief of The Pioneer, Chandan Mitra and CPI-M leader Nilotpal Basu.
Budget to harvest votes?
Will Chidambaram’s populist Budget yield a rich harvest of votes? Congress MP Rashid Alvi said the Budget is being appreciated by every class in the country, but it doesn’t mean that there will be any mid-term poll.
“Elections will be held in due time and I think after one year. Mrs Gandhi met most of the MPs on Monday but she did not talk about the elections at all,” Alvi said.
He added that it is wrong to say that this kind of Budget was because of the General Elections. “The Budget is for the poor people, for the common man and this is in line with our slogan, Congress ka haath aam aadmi ke saath.”
Budget, a political manifesto
“Why did the Congress have to wait for four years before they announced this aam aadmi Budget? Farmers have been under loans and hundreds of farmers have committed suicide in Andhra Pradesh and Vidarbha,” Chandan Mitra said.
“It is ranked hypocrisy to say that the Congress has suddenly woken up to this and that this Budget has nothing to do with the elections. Of course, it has everything to do with elections. However, whether it is held this year or early next year, I think that depends more on the Left rather than the Congress itself,” he added.
In fact, Pranab Mukherjee had said in Parliament on Monday that he was seeking a consensus on the Indo-US nuclear deal.
However, the Left party said there is no question on the political consensus. So is the Left going to renew its threat of backing out of the Government and withdraw its support if the nuclear deal talks go ahead?
“At no point in time did we threaten the Government. We just said that the nuclear deal was against the very grain of the Common Minimum Programme to the extent that it subverted the very provision of adapting an independent foreign policy position,” explained Basu.
Basu added, “We heard from the Government on this deal when they were approaching the IAEA and they were supposed to come back and report the progress of the talks to the joint UPA-Left mechanism. The deal in the present form is not acceptable not only to us, but a majority of Parliament members.”
In fact, Basu asserted that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has also reiterated that US is not going to do anything in the international foray which contravenes the Hyde Act.
There is a feeling in the Congress camp that if they wait longer, price rice will set in, there could be a bad monsoon and these will have an adverse impact on the economy.
The Government has a high-spending Budget – sops to farmers, huge payouts to minorities, SC and STs. These will not be sustained once the economy begins to weaken.
Therefore, this is the time to go to the people with the promises the Government has made and not wait for the problems to start setting in.
“I can just assure you that there will be no mid-term people,” Alvi said and then added, “The Budget is not just for show. It is for the common man and we are going to implement it. By the month of June, FM has assured Parliament that all loans of farmers will be waived off. As far as the minorities are concerned, they are already with us. It is the first time that Rs 1000 crore has been allocated for the minorities”.
Political momentum seized?
The issues that the BJP was taking up like terrorism, minority appeasement and Ram Setu seem to be holding no water. With this Budget, has the Congress seized a certain political dynamism?
Chandan Mitra explained that the Congress has managed to seize the dynamism and the initiative only among the sections of media and the chattering classes.
“If you talk to farmers from Vidarbha, Bhartiya Kisan Union leaders from Western UP and from other affected areas, even Bundelkhand, which the Congress and particularly Rahul Gandhi has been trying to use as his springboard, you will realise that this rosy picture melts in no time,” he said.
“70 per cent of the farmers’ borrowings are from private sources and not nationalised or scheduled banks. As a result by June 30, when the picture actually becomes clear, the euphoria will simply evaporate and the Congress will be forced to rethink its plans,” Mitra added.
However, there is no getting away from the fact that this Budget was a political document. Analysts have pointed out Budgets can never win elections.
In 1979, Charan Singh lost elections even after presenting a highly populist Budget. In 1989, Congress was comprehensively beaten after two successive populist Budgets and in 2004, the BJP-led NDA lost elections after presenting the so-called people's Budget.
“We are not claiming that this Budget is for the purpose to win elections. It is in fact a position that we have taken. We say that elections will be held in proper time after one and a half year,” reiterated Alvi.
If it is not about elections, then why are there no measures in the Budget that spur growth? Why are the industry leaders complaining and why are the stock markets crashing? Why is the Congress simply handing out sops?
“As far as the stock markets are concerned, there are different reasons. It is not in India alone, it is all over the world. Considering overall growth, in the Budget, 15 per cent money is allocated for health and more than 20 per cent is allocated to education. However, the Opposition is not talking about this,” Alvi argued.
Two days after the Budget, Sonia Gandhi has embarked on a tour of states and she is meeting state leaders. Is there a thought behind Congress’ new move?
Defending the Congress stance, Alvi said, “If we will not hold public rallies, then what will we do? We will definitely tell our people what we have done for them in the last four years. Budget is also very important. We have done a lot for farmers, minorities and the poor. For every labourer we have guaranteed Rs 30,000 insurance. It has never happened in the history of this country. We are bound to tell them that we have done so much for them,” Alvi said.
Congress, a formidable force?
Is the Congress led UPA now acquiring a certain hegemonic position within the political landscape? By getting the aam aadmi by its side, it is becoming a formidable force to deal with?
“Firstly, I don’t think anybody in their right minds has ever suggested that the Congress party is a walkover. It is the biggest political party in the country spread across the entire country, ruled almost 45 out of 60 years since Independence. It is thus a formidable force,” Mitra said.
“As far as getting the aam aadmi on board, there is no evidence whatsoever. In 2007 alone, Congress party lost power in Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. So, where is the aam aadmi routing for the Congress? After June 30, when the hollowness of the Budget will be revealed to the farmers, the Congress will be compelled to sing a different tune,” Mitra added.
Identity crisis for the Left
With the present state of affairs, is the Left facing an identity crisis? It hates the Congress but it hates the BJP even more. If Congress with this kind of a Budget goes to the people, and comes back with support in greater numbers, will it support the Government then?
“I am little amused with the kind of statements here. Which Budget in this country in all these years has not been political?” Basu asked.
“From where you generate your income and where you spend is essentially a political call,” Basu added.
But Is it not time for the Left to clear its position vis-a-vis the Congress?
“We have made it clear that we have fundamental differences with the Congress and hence we are neither a part of the Government nor the coalition itself,” explained Basu.
“We are thoroughly opposed to the BJP also. We want to evolve a third alternative, which in policy terms will demarcate itself from both the Congress and the BJP. As far as the Budget is concerned, though we feel that there are certain positive steps in the Budget, but overall the FM has lost a huge scope in making the budget an aam aadmi’s Budget,” he said.
Not saying whether the Left is friends or enemies of the Congress party, Basu said, “We are independent political forces.”
Results of the Question of the day: Is it the right time for Congress-led UPA to call a General Election?
Yes: 88 per cent
No: 12 per cent
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