Click to play videoNew Delhi: The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is gaining in the Lok Sabha elections because of the DMK’s good performance in Tamil Nadu. UPA leader Congress may improve its performance in Uttar Pradesh but in that state the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) would emerge as the leading party, predicts a CNN-IBN post-poll analysis.
The Left Front’s seats would drop marginally in West Bengal and in Punjab the Congress would recover from the defeat in 2004 and 2007.
A CNN-IBN post-poll analysis projects that Congress and its allies are likely to get between 210 and 225 seats.
The BJP and its allies are likely to get between 180 and 195 seats. The Third Front is likely to 95-110 seats and the Fourth Front’s tally is likely to be 25-35 seats. ‘Others’ are projected to get between 15-20 seats. The analysis is based on voting in states on Wednesday and is a revised version of the projections made earlier.
UTTAR PRADESH FINAL VERDICT
- BSP has advantage in a multi-polar contest
- Samajwadi Party drops; national parties get boost
- BJP and Congress have better chances of converting their votes into seats
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE PM
- Mayawati: 17 percent
- Sonia Gandhi: 13 percent
- Mulayam Singh Yadav: 11percent
- L K Advani: 11 percent
- Manmohan Singh: 10 percent
- Rahul Gandhi: 9 percent
X FACTORS: UTTAR PRADESH
- Congress makes major gains among Brahmins and Muslims, has better chances of converting votes into seats
- The BJP regains after assembly elections, alliance with the RLD working in Western Uttar Pradesh
- SP suffers serious erosion among Muslims and upper castes, it has reached a vulnerability zone
TAMIL NADU FINAL VERDICT
- Clear lead for DMK-led alliance, could even be a sweep
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE THE CM
- Karunanidhi: 40 percent
- Jayalalitha: 34 percent
- Vijayakantha: 12 percent
X FACTORS TAMIL NADU
- Very high turnout in the state
- Strong pro-LTTE sentiment in the state
- DMK alliance leads across all sections of society
- DMK alliance has bigger lead in rural than in urban areas
WEST BENGAL FINAL VERDICT
- Left Front’s margins drop significantly, enters vulnerable zone
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE THE CM
- Budhdhadeb Bhattachrya: 32 percent
- Mamata Banerjee: 18 percent
X FACTORS WEST BENGAL
- Congress-TMC gains from both, Left Front and BJP
- Congress-TMC secures majority Muslim votes
- Left leads lower in rural than in urban areas
- Left leads among rural poor, though less than before
PUNJAB FINAL VERDICT
- Advantage Congress, set to recover from the defeat in 2004 and 2007
X FACTORS PUNJAB
- Anti-incumbent sentiment across the state
- Congress has recovered from the loss in assembly election in 2007
POST-POLL REPORT ON UTTAR PRADESH
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 18 | +6 |
| BJP+RLD | 22 | -4 |
| SP | 24 | -3 |
| BSP | 28 | +3 |
| Others | 8 | -2 |
Notes: These estimates and other data here are based on a post-poll survey of 1,991 respondents carried out in the state as a part of the National Election Study. The voting preference reported by the respondents has been adjusted to conform to the known demographic profile of the state and to account for past patterns of under or over reporting. In the last election the BJP and RLD contested separately, and the RLD was an ally of the SP. The Vote change in this context is calculated by merging the individual vote for the BJP and RLD for 2004; while the swing for SP is calculated from the individual vote of the party. Estimated Vote Shares are in percent, while Swings are in percentage points. | ||
POST-POLL REPORT ON WEST BENGAL
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES (IN %) | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress+TMC | 41 | +5 |
| Left | 46 | -5 |
| Others | 13 | 0 |
Notes: These estimates and other data here are based on a post-poll survey of 1,603 respondents carried out in the state as a part of the National Election Study. The voting preference reported by the respondents has been adjusted to conform to the known demographic profile of the state and to account for past patterns of under or over reporting. In the last election the TMC was in alliance with BJP contested separately. Estimated Vote Shares are in percent, while Swings are in percentage points. ‘Others’ include the BJP, Independents and other smaller parties. | ||
POST-POLL REPORT ON TRIPURA
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 26 | +12 |
| Left Front | 63 | -6 |
| BJP | 2 | -6 |
| Others | 9 | 0 |
Notes: These estimates and other data here are based on a post-poll survey of 998 respondents carried out in the state as a part of the National Election Study. Estimated Vote Shares are in percent, while Swings are in percentage points. | ||
POST-POLL REPORT ON MANIPUR
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 44 | +29 |
| BJP | 8 | -13 |
| Left Front | 14 | +4 |
| MPP | 11 | +4 |
| Others | 23 | -24 |
Note: NCP is not in alliance with the Congress in 2009, and therefore its vote share has been deducted from UPA in 2004. | ||
MIZORAM
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | |
| Estimated Vote Share (2009) | |
| Congress | 67 |
| MNF supported Independent | 27 |
| Others | 6 |
HIMACHAL PRADESH
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 47 | -5 |
| BJP | 49 | +7 |
| Others | 4 | -2 |
UTTRAKHAND
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 40 | +2 |
| BJP | 35 | -6 |
| BSP | 10 | +3 |
| Others | 15 | +1 |
PUNJAB
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| Congress | 47 | +13 |
| NDA | 40 | -5 |
| Others | 13 | -8 |
| ‘Others’ include BSP. | ||
TAMIL NADU
VOTE SHARE AND VOTE CHANGE ESTIMATES | ||
| Estimated Vote Share | Swing from 2004 | |
| DMK+Cong | 47 | -10 |
| AIADMK+ | 34 | - 1 |
| DMDK | 10 | +10 |
| Others | 9 | +1 |
Note: All figures in percent. The voting preference reported by the respondents has been adjusted to conform to the known demographic profile of the state and to account for past patterns of under or over reporting. The composition of the DMK led alliance and AIADMK led alliance has changed radically since 2004. But for the purpose of calculating swings, the alliance of 2004 has been compared with the alliance of 2009. | ||
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