Cong, BJP neck and neck in key states

MARATHON SESSION: CNN-IBN's editor-in-chief Rajdeep Sardesai analsyes poll results for next three days.

                      

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The Congress is ahead in the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, Assam, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. The BJP is leading in Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, projects a CNN-IBN analysis of the general elections. The exhaustive analysis, which is based on surveys conducted by the CSDS, will be carried out over three days till counting of votes on May 16.

CHHATTISGARH FINAL VERDICT

• Advantage BJP: new government likely to get a bonus

• As in 2004, the BJP has built upon its narrow victory in the assembly elections

• Congress would have to struggle to retain a few pockets

LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM IN CHHATTISGARH

• Raman Singh: 42 percent

• Ajit Jogi: 20 percent

• Dilip Singh Judev: 4 percent

• V C Shukla: 2 percent

X-FACTORS/ KEY POINTS CHHATTISGARH

• Voting decision driven by assessment of state government

• Raman Singh government enjoys public approval

• Congress lacks a face and an organization

• Salwa Judum is not an electoral issue

JHARKHAND FINAL VERDICT

LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF JHARKHAND

• Babulal Marandi: 34 percent

• Arjun Munda: 13 percent

• Shibu Soren: 10 percent

• Madhu Koda: 7 percent

X FACTORS: JHARKHAND

• While JMM manages to retain its vote share, the Congress loses significantly from 2004

• BJP enjoys a clear lead over UPA except amongst Adivasis and Muslims

• BJP seen to be better for providing stable government in Jharkhand

KERALA FINAL VERDICT

• Small lead for UDF, could lead to major reversal for LDF in terms of seats

LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF KERALA

• V S Achuthanandan: 34 percent

• Oommen Chandy: 20 percent

• A K Antony: 6 percent

• Pinyari Vijyann: 1 percent

X-FACTORS: KERALA

• LDF did not succeed in swinging Muslim votes

• Majority disapproved of LDF’s alliance with Madani

• More than 4 out of 5 voters had heard about corruption charges against Vijayan

• LDF retained its core ( Ezhava , Dalits and poor) votes but failed to add on new sections

• Three-fourth had heard about Indo-us nuclear deal and half of them said that it affected their decision

• Decline in BJP votes could help the UDF

FINAL VERDICT ASSAM

• Congress ahead in a fragmented verdict

X-FACTORS: ASSAM

• No strong anti-incumbency mood against the Congress government

• AUDF secures a majority of Muslim vote, especially among Bengali speaking Muslims.

• Congress makes up by regaining part of its traditional votes among Assamese Hindus and adivasis

• AGP-BJP alliance did not cause friction, but failed to create a momentum

FINAL VERDICT GUJARAT

• Advantage BJP but may not sweep as it did in the assembly elections

Who is the leader in Gujarat most preferred to be the Prime Minister

• Manmohan Singh: 14 percent

• Narendra Modi 17 percent

• Sonia Gandhi 17 percent