Click to play videoThe Congress is ahead in the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, Assam, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. The BJP is leading in Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, projects a CNN-IBN analysis of the general elections. The exhaustive analysis, which is based on surveys conducted by the CSDS, will be carried out over three days till counting of votes on May 16.
CHHATTISGARH FINAL VERDICT
- Advantage BJP: new government likely to get a bonus
- As in 2004, the BJP has built upon its narrow victory in the assembly elections
- Congress would have to struggle to retain a few pockets
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM IN CHHATTISGARH
- Raman Singh: 42 percent
- Ajit Jogi: 20 percent
- Dilip Singh Judev: 4 percent
- V C Shukla: 2 percent
X-FACTORS/ KEY POINTS CHHATTISGARH
- Voting decision driven by assessment of state government
- Raman Singh government enjoys public approval
- Congress lacks a face and an organization
- Salwa Judum is not an electoral issue
JHARKHAND FINAL VERDICT
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF JHARKHAND
- Babulal Marandi: 34 percent
- Arjun Munda: 13 percent
- Shibu Soren: 10 percent
- Madhu Koda: 7 percent
X FACTORS: JHARKHAND
- While JMM manages to retain its vote share, the Congress loses significantly from 2004
- BJP enjoys a clear lead over UPA except amongst Adivasis and Muslims
- BJP seen to be better for providing stable government in Jharkhand
KERALA FINAL VERDICT
- Small lead for UDF, could lead to major reversal for LDF in terms of seats
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF KERALA
- V S Achuthanandan: 34 percent
- Oommen Chandy: 20 percent
- A K Antony: 6 percent
- Pinyari Vijyann: 1 percent
X-FACTORS: KERALA
- LDF did not succeed in swinging Muslim votes
- Majority disapproved of LDF’s alliance with Madani
- More than 4 out of 5 voters had heard about corruption charges against Vijayan
- LDF retained its core ( Ezhava , Dalits and poor) votes but failed to add on new sections
- Three-fourth had heard about Indo-us nuclear deal and half of them said that it affected their decision
- Decline in BJP votes could help the UDF
FINAL VERDICT ASSAM
- Congress ahead in a fragmented verdict
X-FACTORS: ASSAM
- No strong anti-incumbency mood against the Congress government
- AUDF secures a majority of Muslim vote, especially among Bengali speaking Muslims.
- Congress makes up by regaining part of its traditional votes among Assamese Hindus and adivasis
- AGP-BJP alliance did not cause friction, but failed to create a momentum
FINAL VERDICT GUJARAT
- Advantage BJP but may not sweep as it did in the assembly elections
Who is the leader in Gujarat most preferred to be the Prime Minister
- Manmohan Singh: 14 percent
- Narendra Modi 17 percent
- Sonia Gandhi 17 percent
X FACTORS: GUJARAT
- Narendra Modi remains most popular state leader and most preferred choice for the PM
- Positive rating for BJP government helps the BJP retain an edge
- Context of national elections helps Congress recover some ground lost in assembly elections
- Congress' partial recovery among KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims)
FINAL VERDICT RAJASTHAN
- Congress leads, likely to improve upon the performance in assembly elections
X FACTORS: RAJASTHAN
- Congress gets a 'bonus' over its assembly performance
- Congress retains lead among dalit and Adivasi voters
- BJP regains Jat votes but Gujjars split equally
- BSP fails to cross the threshold of viability
FINAL VERDICT ANDHRA PRADESH
- Lok Sabha: Congress ahead of TDP and its allies but unlikely to repeat 2004
- Vidhan Sabha: Too close to call, keen contest between Congress and Grand alliance
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF ANDHRA
- YSR Reddy: 38 percent
- Chandrababu Naidu: 35 percent
- Chiranjeevi: 11 percent
X-FACTORS: ANDHRA
- Lok Sabha: Keen contest in Telangana, Congress ahead in rest of the state
- Congress retains Reddys, TDP retains Kammas, PRP gets majority of Kapu votes
- PRP damages both Congress and TDP equally
- TDP makes some inroads into Muslim votes after splitting with BJP
KARNATAKA FINAL VERDICT
- BJP retains upper hand, has consolidated its position since assembly polls
- Understanding between Congress and JDS could prevent BJP from encashing its honeymoon effect BJP retains upper hand, has consolidated its position since assembly polls
LEADER MOST PREFERRED TO BE CM OF KARNATAKA
- B S Yeddyurappa: 32 percent
- H D Kumaraswamy: 21 percent
- S M Krishna: 15 percent
- Dharm Singh: 8 percent
- Mallikarjuna Kharge: 8 percent
X-FACTORS: KARNATAKA
- No signs of anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP government
- BJP has expanded among rural areas and dalits , consolidated among Lingayats
- Yeduyerappa’s rating has gone up since assembly elections
- Vokkaligas remain fragmented between JDS and Congress with small share with BJP
- Majority of those who heard about attack on women at the pub disapproved of the act
- One-fourth of respondents believe that communal relations have worsened during last one year
- BJP has a clear lead over the Congress and Shivraj Singh Chauhan is a very popular choice for CM
MADHYA PRADESH FINAL VERDICT
X FACTORS: MADHYA PRADESH
- Situation same as in 2004, despite Congress and SP gains, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan's popularity driving the BJP
MAHARASHTRA FINAL VERDICT
- Strong undercurrent in favour of Congress-NCP
- BJP-Shiv Sena likely to lose substantial ground
LEADER MOST PREFERRED BY MAHARASHTRIAN AS PM
- Sharad Pawar: 14 percent
- LK Advani: 14 percent
- Sonia Gandhi: 12 percent
- Manmohan Singh: 12 percent
X FACTORS: MAHARASHTRA
- Sharad Pawar is the top choice for being the Prime Minister, which could be a pulling force for the Congress-NCP alliance
- BJP-Shiv Sena lose across the regions and castes, including among Upper Caste and Marathi speakers
- Congress-NCP consolidate their Maratha-Kunbi support
- Both the Congress and NCP successfully transferred their votes to their allies
- BSP makes marginal gains among Dalits (5 percentage points), but fails to make a dent in the state’s politics
- MNS dents BJP-SS in Mumbai-Thane but fails to make a difference outside
BIHAR FINAL VERDICT
NDA set to sweep Lok Sabha elections in Bihar
LEADER MOST PREFERRED AS CM OF BIHAR
- Nitish Kumar: 65 percent
- Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi: 22 percent
- Ram Vilas Paswan: 5 percent
X FACTORS: BIHAR
- Governance record and Nitish’s popularity gives NDA an overwhelming lead
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