Click to play videoNew Delhi: The ruling Congress seems to be ahead of the SAD-BJP combine in Punjab less than three weeks before the assembly elections,
The findings of the HT-CNN-IBN poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggest that the Congress enjoyed a 5 points lead over its traditional rival the Akali-BJP alliance at the starting point of this race.
If the Assembly election was held in the second week of January, the Congress would have secured about 41 percent votes while the Akali-BJP combine was likely to get about 36 percent votes.
This suggests a significant reversal in political fortunes. The State of the Nation Survey held in January 2006 had found people quite dissatisfied with the Congress government and Chief Minister Amarinder Singh with a dismal popularity rating.
60 per cent approval for govt
In January 2006, the opinion about the performance of the state government was equally divided, but now 60 percent voters seemed satisfied with the performance of the state government, while only 35 percent felt dissatisfied with the performance of the state government.
Amarinder’s popularity has also shot up in the last one year from only 18 percent during January 2006 to 38 percent in the recent survey. He has caught up with the senior Akali leader Prakash Singh Badal in the popularity rating.
It seems there has been some shift in the support base of the political parties since the last assembly elections. While the Congress is doing better among all sections of the minority Hindu community, in relative terms it enjoys less of an advantage in this section than it did in 2002.
Congress would be worried about not getting as much of an advantage among the Hindu dalit votes as it used to have. The Akalis, as always, enjoy the support of the Jat Sikh community, the heart of Punjab politics. But the Congress appears to have a bigger slice of Jat Sikh votes than the Akalis would have expected.
The Congress enjoys a lead among the Khatri Sikhs and equals the Akalis in the Sikh OBC vote. While some of this may be credited to Aamrinder’s policy on agricultural price, some of the credit may go to the popularity of Manmohan Singh, the first Sikh Prime Minister of the country.
Punjab: Vote share of Parties | |
| Party | Projected vote % |
| Congress | 41 |
| Akali Dal-BJP | 36 |
| BSP | 05 |
| Others | 18 |
Though Congress has an edge over the Akali-BJP combine in terms of popular support, but when asked if the ruling party be given another chance, people of Punjab seems to be more or less equally divided. That puts a question mark on the ability of the Congress to convert this initial advantage into an electoral victory. The battle for Punjab is far from over yet.
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