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Congress defeat in 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Nagaland and Tripura inevitable: Sanjoy Hazarika

IBNLive.com
Mar 01, 2013 at 06:54pm IST

North-East Expert Sanjoy Hazarika joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the significance of the North-East poll results.

Q. Is the Sangma magic over for good in Meghalaya? Asked by: Tanuj

Congress defeat in 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Nagaland and Tripura inevitable: Sanjoy Hazarika

Sanjoy Hazarika joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the significance of the North-East poll results.

A. Well, one Sangma succeeds another. PA Sangma took the voters for granted in Garo hills and the results reflect on their record and how the public view their work.

Q. How would you explain the utter lack of anti-incumbency in Nagaland and Tripura? Asked by: Prabal

A. Tripura: People voted for peace and stability - as the Manik Sarkar government was seen as having ended the insurgency and moved modestly forward on infrastructure projects. Sustainability is the key here now. Also the Congress had no leader worth the name - the main crowd puller was a scion of the erstwhile royal family but he was given no official role or post. People can't trust a party which can't trust its own major campaigners. I doubt also if Rahul Gandhi's bombastic claim that the Congress would toss the CPI-M into the sea went down well: it boomeranged.

Q. Incumbents have been re-elected in all 3 states. in Meghalaya it may be due to fractured opposition. but in Nagaland and Tripura has congress become so in-effective? Asked by: Sathyaki

A. Congress in Nagaland had four contenders for the job, they did not present a united front (sic) and lacked conviction; in addition, in Tripura, as I have said in an earlier post, they had no leader worth the name who could match the CPI-M track record or its consistency. People nowadays are rarely swayed by public oratory or major promises: they judge parties and candidates on the basis of elections. IN many ways, national parties like Congress and BJP become regional parties in such contests with local issues, image, community support and party mobilization as much as performance dominating and influencing votes.

Q. If the Megahalaya like trend continues at national level where the fight is congress vs the rest, incumbent may hit a hatrick in 2014? Asked by: Sathyaki

A. There are a significant number of states under the control of non-Congress and non-BJP parties. From east to west, north to south, this is the story -- Samajwadi Party, Akali Dal, AIADMK, BKD, NPF etc. These would have a great influence on the 2014 results, its too early to call though I would wager that the Congress would lose a number of the seats it is holding.

Q. What does North-East poll results mean for Congress? Asked by: KK

A. That they don't have any local leaders of any substance and stature in most of the states of the region and that this bodes ill for the part in the 2014 elections for the Lok Sabha as they need to find winning candidates. Also that young members of First Families at the central or local levels may not swing the state elections if they have nothing to show for a track record, either by working in a public office or working in the state. So called charisma and family connections don't work beyond a point: people want their problems understood and resolved as all elections are becoming more and more 'local'.

Q. What is the message from Electorate? Asked by: leena

A. That media coverage doesn't mean that you've got the votes and that crown princes without a record of actually delivering on promises and holding public office can draw crowds without winning their confidence or votes

Q. Which politicians corrupt more in Meghalaya, Garos or Khasis? Asked by: R. Hajong

A. All parties.

Q. Can these results have an impact on the polls in Assam? Asked by: Prafulla Gogoi

A. The Assam state elections are still nearly four years away. Issues like demands for peace so that people can live in security, farmers' rights, land alienation, lack of communal peace and basic governance -- health, education and delivery of services will count more.

Q. What impact will it have on Lok Sabha election next year? Asked by: KK

A. As I've said earlier, it stresses a growing trend -- that regional parties and non-'national'parties like Samajwadi, BSP, DMK, AIADMK etc will have major roles in the next elections. Question will be who will they align with or which of the big parties will tie up with them. Also that all elections are increasingly becoming local with local issues and leaders pulling votes and crowds.

Q. BJP opens its account in Nagaland by winning one assembly seat. Your views. Asked by: Sonia

A. In Nagaland and other Hill states of NE, they will be one-seat party! Better to invest those huge funds elsewhere where they are taken more seriously as where they have an understanding of basic issues.

Q. Is the Congress defeat next year in Nagaland and Tripura inevitable? Asked by: merekum

A. Yes.

Q. Why Is Left wining in Tripura? Asked by: KK

A. As I've said before, peace and security, stability and some development. Also a total lack of Congress leadership. in other states: 1. stability concern in Meghalaya and 2. in Nagaland a lack of public expectations from any party as well as a sense that Chief Minister Nephiu Rio can push the peace process and some development work forward. A pity that no woman candidate won in Nagaland though.

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