Is UPA looking for early polls? CNN-IBN's National Bureau Chief Bhupendra Chaubey joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Is Congress/Rahul Gandhi ready to call early polls? What should be their strategy if they do so? Will they keep their present allies again? Or they will be some new additions? What will be the result for UPA if they call elections now? Asked by: V.Meenakshi Chennai
CNN-IBN's National Bureau Chief Bhupendra Chaubey joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
A. If UPA goes in for polls right now, I think Congress tally will be less than 140. If they go in for polls as per scheduled, I think they will manage round 160. That's the only change. Rest is going to be split between the regional parties.
Q. Will UPA have any into advantage going early? Asked by: Sandeep
A. No, going in for polls early, won't translate into advantage for UPA. It may translate into advantage for some allies though.
Q. My feeling is that, unless forced deep by some critical ally of UPA, the won't choose election at all till it completes its term. At the same time giving more time to BJP means they will be much more organized to fight than the immediate future. In this scenario, what is your take, sir? Asked by: Madhu K. Nair,
A. BJP will decide I think by April end who its PM candidate is going to be. Most likely it will be Narendra Modi. SP's calculation is that with Modi, there will be a polarisation of minority votes. And minorities in UP will vote for him en-bloc.
Q. If Mulayam's party is second best in UP who will be no. 1 Asked by: Manish Sharma
A. His rival, the BSP.
Q. Hi Bhupendra..Look why can't these policy decisions be looked in isolation and separately from the elections?..Do you really think yourself personally that these policies / policy decisions are going to hurt people more than they benefit? Asked by: JK
A. I do believe JK that governments and political parties by their very nature, never take policy measures without factoring in their political impact. In an election year, governments usually tend to provide that extra push which they don't manage otherwise.
Q. Why not make Rahul Gandhi the PM and undertake all these measures under him so that it gives an advantage when he seeks a mandate for UPA III? Your thoughts? Asked by: Manish Sharma
A. Rahul Gandhi for all practical purposes has been appointed as the PM candidate. Don't think he will be officially declared as one. But elections will be fought under his leadership, there is no doubt about that.
Q. IS UPA prepared for early polls? Are they prepared to face all diktats of the opposition prevailing now? Will they perform farely if they call early elections? How about their alliance response? Asked by: V.Bhaskar Chennai
A. Hi Bhaskar, UPA's position is like caught between a rock and a hard plate. What do you do when you are trying to beat anti-incumbency, price rise, corruption and lack of decision making all combined into one. Congress on its own, won't go in for early polls.
Q. Is it about early polls or is the overdrive simply because they rightly think that they have messed up so bad that it will need almost 1 year of clean up to stand a chance in 2014? Asked by: Shekar
A. Congress on its own doesn't want to push in with early polls. Problem is with the allies. Do the allies want to go in for polls or not. Decision will be enforced by the allies and not the congress.
Q. Hello sir...how is the scenario in UP now? Who will do well? How is anti-incumbency against SP? Asked by: sunny
A. In a strange irony of sorts, SP is placed exactly where BSP was placed in 2009. Then Mayawati was enjoying a full majority govt in UP and perception was that she will get at least 40 seats. Look at what happened. Now Mulayam is in full majority govt, but I suspect he may well turn out to be second best party in UP.
Q. UPA has nothing worthwhile to showcase, it has mismanaged almost everything. How will early polls suit them? Asked by: Rakesh Katyal
A. Rakesh, UPA wont go in for polls its own self. What it will do is that it will wait to see whether allies can be managed upto a point. Frankly, at the moment, it doesn't have a problem as far as allies like NC, NCP or DMK are concerned. It's main problem is with parties like BSP and SP, which have a very unpredictable nature.
Q. What is your gut feeling onto when the elections will be held? Asked by: Rahul
A. My own sense is that elections will not be held this year. They will at best, be held beginning of next year. Congress certainly won't do anything to aggravate matters at its own end.
Q. Does UPA has prepared well for early polls? Support from SP to be withdrawn as per reports will they call for early polls. If so will they retain their position as they did in 2009? Asked by: V.Nandakumar, Chennai
A. Nandakumar, frankly, elections can't be forced just by SP. It will require a coordinated effort from parties like SP, BJD, Trinamool, and even BSP. Calculation is that if you allow congress to continue post implementation of populist policies, then you give them a chance to consolidate.
Q. After budget is what the likely call govt will take on early polls? Asked by: Prithviraj Chavan
A. Hi Prithvi, the govt on its own would like to complete its full tenure. Problem is with allies. SP threatening to bring down the govt. So govt would like to go all out in implementing few populist measures before being forced to bite the bullet.
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