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Congress set to trounce BJP, win big in Karnataka: Pre-poll survey

CNN-IBN
Apr 30, 2013 at 01:28pm IST

Bangalore: The Congress is on a comeback trail in Karnataka and all set to regain power in the state. According to a pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week in 294 locations of 75 constituencies spread across Karnataka a total of 4,198 people were interviewed and the results reveal that Congress is all set to decimate the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and storm the Vidhana Soudha with a clear majority.

With an overwhelming lead of almost 14 percentage points in vote share over the BJP, the Congress (37 per cent vote share) is likely to secure 117-129 seats in the 224-member Assembly. According to the CSDS pre-poll survey the BJP will secure just 23 per cent of votes and win 39-49 seats, a huge fall from its heyday of 2008 when Karnataka become India's first southern state to have a BJP government.

Former Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, who quit the BJP and formed Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), is expected to hit his former party hard, looking set to secure seven per cent of the votes, while the Janata Dal Secular (JDS), with 20 per cent votes, will bag 34-44 seats, according to the survey. The other smaller parties and independents are likely to secure 13 per cent of the votes and win 14-22 seats.

While the Congress was the biggest party in terms of vote share in 2008 with 35 per cent, and the BJP came second with 34 per cent, the latter won more seats than the former to form the government. But the scenario in 2013 is completely different, with the Congress likely to gain two percentage points, but the BJP set to suffer a major jolt by losing 11 percentage points in vote share to slump to 23 per cent - and losing power in the process.

The JDS is also likely to gain one per cent in vote share to move to 20 per cent in 2013, while the Yeddyurappa-led KJP, which did not exist in 2008, will secure seven per cent of the votes. Other smaller parties and independents are set to corner 13 per cent of the votes, up one per cent.

A look at the different regions shows that the Congress is comfortably ahead in most of them, whereas the BJP and the JDS are involved in a close race to determine who will take the second spot. Five years ago, most people liked both the BJP and Yedyurappa, but in 2013 most people dislike them.

In Hyderabad Karnataka with 31 seats, the Congress has consolidated its lead over the BJP while the JDS has been on a downslide. The Congress looks set to recover and lead the BJP in Mumbai Karnataka which accounts for 50 seats whereas in Coastal Karntaka (21 seats) it is a close race between the two principal rivals with the JDS also improving its prospects.

Central Karnataka (35 seats) is also likely to see a Congress triumph as the BJP's base in the region has been dented by the KJP. In Southern Karnataka (51 seats) it is close race between the JDS and Congress while Bangalore (36 seats) is backing the Congress as the BJP's fortunes take a dip while the JDS is also making some gains.

Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur and Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad and Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga and Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu.

In fact the BJP is down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008 with the Congress reaping the benefits. There is a strong anti-incumbency against the present government with 57 per cent of the respondents are against the BJP getting another chance to rule the state.

The BJP government has been assessed to be worse than the Congress-led Central government. But there is some hope for the BJP as its MLAs have been assessed better than the state government.

In another major revelation, Yeddyurappa's government has been rated slightly better than Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar's governments. Ironically Yeddyurappa was forced to quit following allegations of massive corruption.

Even though the Congress is way ahead of its rivals, its leaders are trailing in the chief ministership race which is led by HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS. Kumaraswamy is backed by 18 per cent of the respondents while KJP chief Yeddyurappa is second with 10 per cent of the votes and Siddaramaiah is the most popular of all Congress leaders with nine per cent.

Caste is set to play a major role with Vokkaligas overwhelmingly rooting for Kumaraswamy and Lingayats backing Yeddyurappa. Kumaraswamy is also viewed as the best chief minister ever across all age groups while SM Krishna is a close second and Yeddyurappa third.

In case of a hung Assembly most prefer a Congress-JDS alliance with JDS voters being overwhelmingly is favour of doing so.

Most of the respondents also say that the Congress provided the best governance out of all governments in last 15 years and satisfaction with the UPA government and Manmohan Singh is also fairly high.

Elections to the 224-member Assembly will take place in a single phase on May 5 and the counting is on May 8.

Vote share projection
Congress
37%
BJP
23%
KJP
7%
JDS
20%
Others
13%


Seat projection
Congress
117-129
BJP
39-49
JDS
34-44
Others
14-22


Survey details
Time period of fieldwork
10-17th April, 2013
Number of Assembly Constituencies
75
Number of Polling Stations
294
Total respondents
4198


Sample Profile
Actual share in total population
Share in Pre-poll Survey sample
Women
49
47
Urban
39
36
SC
16
23
ST
7
8
Muslim
12
11
Hindu
84
86
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for actual share of Women and Urban in total population of Karnataka are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for actual share of SC, ST, Muslim and Hindu are from Census 2001.


Estimated vote-shares – Cong improves & leads, JDS also gains, KJP enters, BJP slumps
Party
2008 Actual Result
2013 Pre-poll Estimate
Change since 2008
Congress (Cong)
35
37
+2
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
34
23
-11
Janata Dal Secular (JDS)
19
20
+1
Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP)
-
7
+7
Others
12
13
+1
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Others include other parties and independents. KJP was not in the fray in 2008.


Cong voters seemed to be slightly surer about their preference than BJP & JDS during the pre-poll survey
All
Cong voters
BJP voters
JDS voters
Will vote for the same party on voting day
67
73
70
67
Vote may change on voting day
23
20
23
26
Can’t say/No response
10
7
7
7
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


The Regional picture according to the Survey
Hyderabad Karnataka (31)
Cong consolidates lead over BJP; JDS down
Mumbai Karnataka (50)
Cong looks set to recover and lead BJP
Coastal Karntaka (21)
Close race between BJP and Cong; JDS improves
Central Karnataka (35)
Cong likely to emerge on top; BJP base dented by KJP
Southern Karnataka (51)
Close race between JDS and Cong
Bangalore (36)
Cong ahead; BJP slumps; JDS gains
Note: Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region; Hyderabad Karnataka includes Gulbarga, Yadgir, Bidar, Raichur, Koppal districts; Mumbai Karnataka includes Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gadag, Dharwad, Haveri districts; Central Karnataka includes Bellary, Chitradurga, Davangere, Shimoga, Chikmagalur districts; Coastal Karnataka includes Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada, Kodagu districts; Southern Karnataka includesTumkur, Chikkballapur, Kolar, Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Chamrajnagar districts; Bangalore includes Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural, Ramanagaram districts.


BJP down across all key socio-economic categories compared to 2008
Categories
LIKELY CHANGES SINCE 2008
CONG
BJP
JDS
Voters aged 18-35 years
Up & leading
Down
Up
Urban
Up & leading
Down
Same
Rural
Up & leading
Down
Same
Women
Up & leading
Down
Same
Rich & middle class
Up & leading
Down
Same
Lower class & poor
Same but leading
Down
Up
College educated
Up & leading
Down
Up
Lingayats
Up
Down but leading
Down
Vokkaligas
Down
Down
Up & leading
OBCs
Same but leading
Down
Same
SCs
Same but leading
Down
Same
Muslims
Same but leading
Down
Down
Note: Same means same as 2008, Down means down compared to 2008, Up means up compared to 2008; leading means ahead of all the other parties


Strong anti-incumbency against the BJP government
Should the State BJP Govt. get another chance?
Yes
21
No
57
No opinion
22
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


BJP State govt. assessed worse than Cong-led Central govt.
Overall satisfaction with..
BJP State govt.
Cong-led Central govt.
Fully satisfied
14
13
Somewhat satisfied
38
47
Somewhat dissatisfied
11
9
Fully dissatisfied
22
11
Can’t say/No response
15
20
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Some hope for BJP - Party MLAs assessed better than the State govt.
Overall satisfaction with..
BJP MLAs
BJP State govt.
Fully satisfied
24
14
Somewhat satisfied
47
38
Somewhat dissatisfied
9
11
Fully dissatisfied
13
22
Can’t say/No response
8
15
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Report card of BJP State government’s work: Mixed assessment
Improved
Remained same
Worsened
Condition of roads
35
37
+2
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
50
28
20
Condition of Government hospitals
33
42
22
Supply of electricity
26
35
36
Irrigation facilities
27
37
+1
Condition of Government schools
44
35
16
Supply of drinking water
32
35
28
Public transport
42
31
23
Condition of law and order
21
35
27
Religious harmony
25
32
23
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response.


Increased
Remained same
Decreased
Prices of essential commodities
81
12
6
Corruption
69
17
9
Employment opportunities
20
35
34
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response.


Satisfaction with BJP chief ministers not too high; Yeddyurappa’s govt rated slightly better than Gowda’s and Shettar’s
Satisfaction with different BJP governments over the last five years
B S Yeddyurappa’s government
Sadananda Gowda’s government
Jagadish Shettar’s government
Fully Satisfied
22
12
14
Somewhat satisfied
32
36
33
Somewhat dissatisfied
16
23
19
Fully dissatisfied
22
19
22
Can’t say/No response
8
10
12
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Kumaraswamy most preferred Chief Minister followed by Yeddyurappa; Siddaramaiah most popular of all Cong leaders
Chief Minister Preference
2008
2009
2013
H D Kumaraswamy
20
19
18
B S Yeddyurappa
30
33
10
Siddaramaiah
4
4
9
S M Krishna
15
15
8
Jagadish Shettar
0
0
6
CSadananda Gowda
0
0
3
Dharam Singh
4
8
1
Mallikarjuna Kharge
7
9
1
Others
10
5
8
Don’t know/No response
10
6
36
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Figures for 2008 are from a Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Karnataka Assembly election. Sample size for the 2008 survey was 6041. Figures for 2009 are from National Election Study conducted by CSDS during the Lok Sabha polls. Sample size for 2009 was 2120. All responses are spontaneous and to an open ended question.


Kumaraswamy also viewed as best chief minister ever, across age groups; Hegde’s name taken more by older voters than younger ones.
Best CM in Karnataka’s history
All
18-35 yrs
36-45 yrs
Above 45 yrs
H D Kumaraswamy
15
16
15
14
S M Krishna
14
16
13
13
B S Yeddyurappa
8
8
8
9
Ramakrishna Hegde
7
6
7
8
S Nijalingappa
4
3
5
3
Devraj Urs
3
4
2
3
S Bangarappa
3
3
3
2
Others
16
15
16
17
Can’t say/No response
30
29
32
30
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Most say Congress provided best governance out of all governments in last 15 years
Best governance in last 15 years provided by…
Congress govt (1999-06)
40
JDS govt (2006-07)
24
BJP govt (2007-13)
20
All equally good/bad
8
Can’t say/No response
8
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Satisfaction with UPA government and Manmohan Singh fairly high
UPA govt’s performance
Manmohan Singh’s performance as PM
Fully satisfied
13
20
Somewhat satisfied
47
43
Somewhat dissatisfied
9
6
Fully dissatisfied
11
10
Can’t say/No response
21
21
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Corruption most important voting issue, but majority still undecided or did not give an opinion
Key issue for voters when they go out to vote
Corruption of State govt/BJP
9
Price rise
7
Water problem
4
Support for parties
4
State govt’s performance
3
State’s development
3
Condition of roads
2
Jobs
2
Good candidate
1
Electricity
1
Other smaller issues
9
Can’t say/No response
55
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. All responses are spontaneous and to an open ended question


Central and State government both seen as being Corrupt
Corruption assessment of governments
BJP State govt of Shettar
UPA Central govt of Manmohan
Very corrupt
17
20
Somewhat corrupt
47
46
Not at all corrupt
15
15
Can’t say/No response
21
20
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Most prefer Cong-JDS alliance in case of Hung Assembly; JDS voters particularly so
Preferred alliance in event of hung assembly
All
Cong voters
BJP voters
JDS voters
Cong-JDS
41
53
18
58
BJP-JDS
15
5
33
14
Cong-BJP
5
6
8
2
Other combinations
23
19
28
16
Don’t know/Can’t say
16
17
13
10
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents gave some other party’s name or gave no response


Five years ago most people liked both BJP and Yedyurappa; five years later most people dislike them
Opinion on BJP and Yeddyurappa
2008
2013
I like both the BJP and Yeddyurappa
34
15
I like BJP, I don’t like Yeddyurappa
9
20
I don’t like BJP, I like Yeddyurappa
9
10
I don’t like both BJP and Yeddyurappa
16
31
Can’t say/No response
31
24
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100. Figures for 2008 are from a Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Karnataka Assembly election. Sample size for the 2008 survey was 6041.


Opinion on Yeddyurappa and his removal – BJP supporters more upset with Yeddyurappa’s removal than others
Statements
All
BJP supporters
Agree
Disagree
Agree
Disagree
BJP’s Central leadership did the right thing by forcing Yeddyurappa to step down as CM
59
27
58
35
The repeated change of CMs in Karnataka over the last five years has been in the interest of the State
40
43
46
46
Karnataka BJP has become a less corrupt party after Yeddyurappa’s exit
42
39
46
43
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents could not say or gave no response


Most respondents say Yeddyurappa betrayed the BJP; however BJP supporters divided on the issue
Yeddyurappa betrayed by BJP?
All
BJP supporters
Yes, he was betrayed by his party
32
42
No, it was he who betrayed the BJP
43
41
Can’t say/No response
25
18
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100


BJP seen as being most corrupt, nepotistic and faction ridden of all parties
Which party is..
Cong
BJP
JDS
More corrupt?
18
53
4
More nepotistic?
17
41
14
More faction ridden?
16
34
14
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents said all three, none of the three or could not say or gave no response.


Party seen as being best for governance tasks
Which party is..
Cong
BJP
JDS
Best for State’s development (responses of all respondents)
33
25
19
Best for curbing illegal mining (responses of all respondents)
22
20
18
Best for religious harmony (responses of all respondents)
23
23
19
Best for protecting State’s interest in Cauvery dispute with Tamil Nadu (responses only of Southern Karnataka region )
21
15
26
Best for protecting State’s interest in border dispute with Maharashtra (responses only of Mumbai Karnataka region)
21
27
20
Best for Karnataka’s youth (responses only of youth 18-35)
27
17
22
Best for cities/towns (responses only of urban respondents)
24
21
19
Best for agriculture (responses only of farmers/agri workers)
17
17
30
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Rest of the respondents said all three, none of the three or could not say or gave no response.


KJP and BSR Congress: Spoilers or Serious contenders?
Perception regarding new parties
KJP
BSR Congress
Spoiler for main parties
23
14
Serious contender to main parties
30
20
Both
13
17
Neither
9
16
Can’t say/No response
26
32
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100; BSR Congress is short for Badavara Shramikara Raitha Congress


Opinion on migrants from other states
Opinion on migrants from other states
Migrants from other states pose danger to Karnataka’s culture
16
Migrants from other states affecting employment opportunities and busineses of local people
29
Migrants pose danger to both culture and employment
20
Migrants have had no adverse effect
20
Can’t say/ No response
15
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100.


Majority of Bangaloreans in favour of idea of a directly elected city mayor
Should Bangalore have a directly elected mayor?
Bangalore respondents
Yes
56
No
31
Can’t say
14
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100


Bangalore being pampered or ignored?
Karnataka government gives…
Bangalore respondents
Rest of Karnataka respondents
Too much attention to Bangalore
24
24
Sufficient attention to Bangalore
46
32
Less than needed attention to Bangalore
17
5
Can’t say/No response
14
39
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100


Traffic congestion is Bangalore’s most important problem say most respondents
Bangalore’s main problems
Bangalore respondents
Rest of Karnataka respondents
Traffic congestion
40
33
Pollution
17
11
Unplanned growth of city
12
5
Crime
8
13
Lack of access to drinking water
8
4
High cost of living
6
4
Frequent power cuts
3
2
Can’t say/No response
5
28
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100


Development of Bangalore has improved in last five years say most Bangaloreans
In last five years, development of Bangalore region has..
Bangalore respodnents
Improved
49
Remained same
24
Worsened
13
Can’t say/No response
14
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100


Cong seen as Best for towns and cities both in Bangalore and Rest of Urban Karnataka
Which party is Best for cities/towns
Bangalore
Urban Karnataka
Cong
25
24
BJP
23
19
JDS
20
20
All
12
11
None
7
7
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100; rest could not say or gave no response

Methodology for Karnataka Pre Poll Survey April 2013

The findings presented here are based on a Pre-Poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, in Karnataka. A total of 4,198 persons were interviewed between 10th and 17th April, 2013, in 294 locations in 75 constituencies spread across the state. The Assembly Constituencies were selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size Method. Four polling stations within each sampled constituency were selected using the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) technique. The respondents were also selected using the SRS method from the most updated electoral rolls of the selected polling stations. Keeping in mind, the probability of non completion of interviews amongst all the selected respondents the technique of over sampling of respondents was adopted. Out of the 300 polling stations selected randomly, the survey could be conducted in 294, and of the 10,500 sampled respondents, 4,198 could be interviewed within the stipulated time

Survey details
Time period of fieldwork
10th-17th April, 2013
Number of Assembly Constituencies
75
Number of Polling Stations where survey was conducted
294
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)
4198

The interviews were conducted by specially trained field investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Kannada. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. All voting questions were asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box. The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of the state. The over-representation of SCs was taken into account while doing the final analysis.


Sample Profile
Actual share in total population
Share in Pre-poll Survey sample
Women
49
47
Urban
39
36
SC
16
23
ST
7
8
Muslim
12
11
Hindu
84
86
Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for actual share of Women and Urban in total population of Karnataka are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for actual share of SC, ST, Muslim and Hindu are from Census 2001.


The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Prof. Sandeep Shastri and Ms Reetika Syal (Jain University, Bangalore) with Dr Veena Devi, Dr Harish Ramaswamy and Dr Mavinakulli. The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi which included Anuradha Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Nitin Mehta and Shreyas Sardesai. Prof. Suhas Palshikar gave his inputs and suggestions. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey. It will be useful to note that the pre poll survey was conducted about a week prior to the release of the final list of contesting candidates by the Election Commission. It was also held about a week before the start of the main election campaigning in the State and nearly three weeks before actual voting.

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