Click to play videoBJP General Secretary and National Spokesperson Arun Jaitley addresses some critical questions like the issue of succession in the party leadership, his party’s stand on the Volcker report and Natwar Singh, on the nuclear deal and on Vande Mataram in an exclusive interview to Karan Thapar on Devil’s Advocate.
Karan Thapar: Hello and welcome to Devil’s Advocate. As the BJP prepares for its national executive on Thursday, how does it face up to the fact that national opinion polls are showing that its popularity is sharply falling? That’s the key question I shall put to the party’s General Secretary and National Spokesperson Arun Jaitley.
Mr Jaitley, two national opinion polls within a space of two weeks showing that even after 27 months of the general election, at a time when you should be benefiting from the incumbency of the government, the Congress is actually soaring in the polls and the BJP is sharply falling. Do you concede that you have a problem?
Arun Jaitley: Well, I am one of those who never rubbishes polls. Polls may not be accurate, or polls at a time when an election is not in the offing may not give you an accurate trend. But polls are always indicative. Both the polls, which I have seen, have broadly indicated that there is a four to six per cent voting difference between UPA and NDA, with NDA trailing behind. I have broadly two reactions to these polls.
The first, of course, I concede that there is a gap and the gap is in favour of the UPA. At the same time, there is an interesting paradox that the polls present. When individual questions are asked about issues on whether they have comfort level and satisfaction with regard to the performance of the government barring the issue of handling of foreign policy where normally the government of the day gets the benefit of doubt, on every other issue, people are completely dissatisfied with the government.
Karan Thapar: That’s only if you go by the CNN-IBN poll. But if you turn to the India Today poll, it shows that more people think that the Congress is able to handle problems in the country. They are more concerned about poverty and it is more secure in terms of giving a stable government. In other words, in all those issues, people have lost faith in the BJP party governance
Arun Jaitley: Let me respond to these two-three issues you have raised. Firstly, the handling of the economy has been disastrous. The government has been caught in contradictions between the Left and the UPA policies. No new policy initiatives are coming. The economy is on a roll at times with an eight per cent growth rate, essentially because it is entrepreneur-driven. Two, let’s see the handling of the security situation. If it’s not collapsing, it’s crumbling. Let’s see the ability to take decision and to enforce them. It’s a disastrous situation.
Karan Thapar: Granted. But you are not benefiting from these problems, that is the real thing. Despite the problems that you are accurately pointing out, CNN-IBN says if a poll was to be held today, the Congress would increase its tally by almost 100 seats and the BJP would go down to 82, your worst performance in 17 years.
Arun Jaitley: Let me tell you, I don’t go by these figures. But let’s keep the controversy of the figures apart – how much plus minus it is. The broad two indications, which are coming, show that there is a large-scale dissatisfaction with the handling of the governance as far as the UPA is concerned.
Karan Thapar: Quite right, but the BJP is not benefiting.
Arun Jaitley: Yet, you have a situation where the UPA may increase in numbers. It possibly could be that people feel in mid-term that the government must be given a chance. Or people feel some of the issues or the kind of issues that arise at the time of the polls, we really have not focused on the issues, which should have been focused.
Karan Thapar: Actually, the political logic in most countries is the other way around. Mid-term is when a government is at its lowest point in terms of its popularity, perhaps even its credibility. Mid-term is when an Opposition actually begins, not just to challenge, but surge ahead in the polls.
Arun Jaitley: Psephology is a strange paradox.
Karan Thapar: No, not psephology. It’s the case in any country in the world.
Arun Jaitley: In 2003 and right till January 2004, all polls indicated an NDA landslide. And the results five months later indicated something different. Therefore, when polls are held, people start focusing on the issues, they look for actual results. You can’t have such results where inflation is sky high, prices of essential commodities are going up, the security apparatus is crumbling and the people will be happy with the government?
Karan Thapar: But this is the exactly odd scenario that creates the problem for you. The government faces all the critical problems that you have mentioned and no one denies it. But rather than the BJP benefiting from it, rather than the BJP showing that suddenly its positioning itself as party for the future of the country in the next elections, you are being smashed in the polls and the government despite its problems is soaring.
Arun Jaitley: Therefore, we have to learn the lesson from this poll. As a BJP member and activist, I have no hesitation in admitting that the lesson for us from this poll is that people are dissatisfied with the government. Why should they not be leaning towards us?
Karan Thapar: What is the answer to that question?
Arun Jaitley: In case they are to lean towards us, we as an Opposition have a primary responsibility of focusing on the issues with which people are dissatisfied, one. Therefore, our intensity on the mismanagement of the economy, the farmers issue, the price rise issue, the security scenario, the weak leadership of the UPA, the contradictions within the UPA --- we have to highlight that as an effective Opposition, rather than every third day allow some irrelevant controversy within us to surface, which diverts popular opinion form the UPA failure.
Karan Thapar: So you accept by that answer that rather than concentrate on the problems of the government and actually expose them, you have fallen into the trap of irrelevant controversies to sidetrack and distract you?
Arun Jaitley: No.
Karan Thapar: You just said it!
Arun Jaitley: Yes, some of the issues which we have raised are very vital, but when we have somebody giving a dissident noise within the party -- we had this problem in 2004-05 -- we have tried to correct that discipline. Today, we have to really concentrate on all the issues on which the polls have indicated that there is a UPA failure.
Karan Thapar: But there you are not concentrating at the moment?
Arun Jaitley: Well, I won’t say we are not concentrating.
Karan Thapar: You are not concentrating effectively enough?
Arun Jaitley: No. We have not only to concentrate on these issues. We have to concentrate exclusively on these issues and not get sidetracked so the agenda does not have to get diverted.
Karan Thapar: Very well. We’ve moved quite happily from talking about the poll results that I described as a disaster and which you tried to defend --- naturally, you are the General Secretary of the party, you have to defend yourself --- into talking about the underlying problem. Let’s pause a moment and talk about it a little differently. Let me start by saying to you that the first problem that the BJP faces is today, you do not have a single undisputed leader who can challenge the Prime Minister and at the same time become a focal point of attention for the BJP in the press. Do you accept that it is the absence of a clear-cut leadership that is blunting your edge?
Arun Jaitley: No, I don’t think that’s a problem. To answer that question you have to allow me some time to explain to you why the BJP would be a little different from the other political parties in the country, which are emerging. Most political parties, barring the Left, are essentially either family-driven or personality-driven and some of them have a caste support case. Their succession lines are on the basis of families --- that’s true of most political parties. The BJP, on the other hand, is a more structured political party.
Karan Thapar: But you still don’t have a succession line and that’s the problem.
Arun Jaitley: The BJP is going through a process. We’ve had two senior leaders, Mr Vajpayee and Mr Advani.
Karan Thapar: Who will not leave and are clinging on to the detriment of succession.
Arun Jaitley: Let’s not get into the abstract issue of who will lead and who will not lead. Today, we have a situation where a generational change has been encouraged by these two in the party.
Karan Thapar: But that’s not happening. That’s the problem.
Arun Jaitley: Karan, at one level, it has happened. I’ll tell you the layer, where it has happened. Most of our chief ministers are either in their early-50s or mid-50s.
Karan Thapar: But none of your national leaders at the top have actually succeeded at that age.
Arun Jaitley: Our chief ministers are also important national leaders. Most of our party functionaries, among our presidents, out general secretaries and senior leaders are in the same age group. So on the contrary, instead of allowing a family member to come up as other political parties have, what these two have consciously done is to have encouraged a whole galaxy of a second-generation leadership to emerge.
Karan Thapar: I gave you a long time to answer that question, because it was only fair since I was accusing your party of not having an effective leader that you should answer it effectively. Let me now point out the real problem. Today, the India Today opinion poll suggests that the man who is perhaps the most popular choice to be the Prime Minister of the country is Atal Bihari Vajpayee. But in 2009, he’ll be 84 and far too old. There is no one else available. That is your problem.
Arun Jaitley: I don’t think that really is a problem.
Karan Thapar: It is, it is.
Arun Jaitley: Prior to 2004, unlike the Congress where the leadership belongs to a family…
Karan Thapar: No, don’t go to the Congress, talk about yourself.
Arun Jaitley: No. Let’s talk of others. Prior to 2004, did any poll give Dr Manmohan Singh a ghost of a chance? Prior to 1996, did any poll give Mr Gujral or Mr Deve Gowda a ghost of a chance?
Karan Thapar: But look at where Mr L K Advani, who has been home minister, who has been deputy prime minister, comes in. According to the CNN-IBN poll, 1.9 per cent of the country believe he will make a fitting PM. He is lower than Mayawati, he is lower than Mulayam Singh, he is lower than Rahul Gandhi.
Arun Jaitley: Well, in 2004 if you had sought a poll, perhaps the present Prime Minister would have got a 0.9 rating. But that doesn’t really answer the question.
Karan Thapar: But the present Prime Minister was at that point of time not considered a successor. Mr LK Advani is your only possibility as a successor.
Arun Jaitley: In a structured political party, going through a generational change where the senior leaders are consciously encouraging, a new generation is emerging …
Karan Thapar: They are not, that’s the problem. If they were, the whole situation would be different.
Arun Jaitley: The problem is not with the BJP, the problem is with the particular mindset in this case where people expect one person, perhaps on the basis of a family succession, to be the clear successor. We know who Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s successor will be.
Karan Thapar: No, you are deflecting the issue. Let’s not talk about the Congress, come back to your party.
Arun Jaitley: We know in various political parties across the country who the successors would be.
Karan Thapar: No Mr Jaitley, you are a very effective lawyer and a brilliant national spokesperson. You are deftly avoiding my question.
Arun Jaitley: I cannot give an answer that we will have somebody on the basis of family. All I can say is that a galaxy of leadership is emerging and one of them will be the first among equals.
Karan Thapar: One of them inevitably and eventually to sheer default would have to emerge as a leader and the party will fall away.
Arun Jaitley: In a structured party, it doesn’t happen by default, it happens by conscious choice.
Karan Thapar: It’s not happening by choice at the moment. That’s the problem. Let me tell you the real problem. Any party of governance that has lost an election can only bounce back at the next polls if it can throw up a leader who captures the imagination of the country and who has the capacity to reform and change the party. Tony Blair did it, Margaret Thatcher did it, David Cameron is trying to do it in Britain today. No one in the BJP is in that position today. That’s the critical problem of the BJP.
Arun Jaitley: I don’t think it will be a fair comparison between the two countries to make. You have a huge federal polity. You have the third, fourth and the eighth party in this country, which have an effective balancer’s role in deciding who comes to power. You have structured political parties.
Karan Thapar: That’s an irrelevant set of concerns. I’m talking about the leadership of a single party.
Arun Jaitley: You are governed by a mindset which thinks that the party will be entirely leader-driven. A party can be organisational-driven, a party can have a galaxy of leadership and one of them will become PM. After all, when Mr Blair became the leader …
Karan Thapar: There’s another alternative. A party can survive without an effective leader, gently but steadily sink in the polls and that’s the problem.
Now, the other problem is that you fail to embarrass the government despite the opportunities that have come your way. For example, during the Monsoon Session of Parliament, the whole Jaswant Singh episode damaged the credibility of your leader in the Rajya Sabha. It dented your party’s stand on national security. It made a mockery of your whole Bharat Suraksha Yatra. Do you accept that this sort of issues has actually cost the BJP opportunities?
Arun Jaitley: Well, a lot of Indian politics today is dictated day to day by what the news channels think is the agenda for the day. Mr Jaswant Singh has come out with a book, which is a serious publication. Now, in the book he has highlighted various factors. The media, unfortunately, picked up one issue and it dragged on for a couple of days. I do concede that the dragging of the issue really did not help us. That was neither the core of the BJP stand, nor the core of his book. But, unfortunately, that did happen and to that extent the agenda from those weaknesses of the government during that period got marginally diverted.
Karan Thapar: In fact in one of your press conferences before the Monsoon Session began, you said that the BJP will concentrate primarily on exposing the PM’s weakness of leadership on exposing problems of inflation and exposing problems of national security and in particular terror. Jaswant Singh so deflected you that those attacks that could have embarrassed the government never got made and the government escaped.
Arun Jaitley: Well, each one of those issues has been raised and raised very effectively in Parliament. You have had a debate on the Mumbai blasts. Now you can’t have five debates on the blasts.
Karan Thapar: But the government was never on the mat. You could have had the government on the mat, but you didn’t.
Arun Jaitley: I think on the security scenario and on the prices issue, farmer suicide issues, which have been raised by us at least twice in one month in Parliament, the government had a lot to answer which it didn’t.
Karan Thapar: Quite right. But the expectation of embarrassment that you had never materialised.
Arun Jaitley: I think, Karan, a little bit of it is also attributable to a fact that a debate like farmer suicides, a debate like price rise and Mumbai blasts does not find the same amount of coverage by the media which, say, issues like the mole could. That’s also a character people learn to live with. And one of the lessons is that we must concentrate on these issues and not allow those issues to occupy the centre stage.
Karan Thapar: Let’s talk another issue where, in fact, you got yourself deflected. The Natwar Singh episode. Rather than stand up for accountability, transparency and take a clear line of corruption, L K Advani declared Natwar Singh to be a scapegoat. Yashwant Sinha and Shatrughan Sinha went out of the way to befriend the man, making a complete mockery of your original position.
Arun Jaitley: I think there was a little confusion unnecessarily created on that issue. Even when Mr Advani made a statement, he didn’t defend Natwar Singh. He said that the Congress part of it should have been investigated. It’s only in that context that he used that expression.
Karan Thapar: But when you call a man a scapegoat, you are finding a form of defence.
Arun Jaitley: Thereafter, the party’s position was clarified after a complete discussion. I categorically said that this was half-an-inquiry and half-a-cover-up and that was clearly the BJP stand.
Karan Thapar: Let me quote to you from your own letter to the PM on November 3. “Your defence of an errant colleague has tarnished the quality of our democracy. Sri Natwar Singh today stands tainted and compromised. His credentials will always be suspect.” How come Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha and even L K Advani forgot that?
Arun Jaitley: Not on the Volcker issue, I’m afraid. On the Volcker issue, that continues to remain the stand of the BJP. Because Mr Yashwant Sinha on behalf of the party was handling the nuclear issue. Therefore, he was speaking to people who could support the BJP stand on the nuclear issue.
Karan Thapar: You know what you said to the PM? “I appeal to you, to rise above petty party political interests.” Arguably, the PM did. Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha reduced it to an issue of simple point scoring.
Arun Jaitley: Admittedly, the PM did not. The Prime Minister continued with him in the government. The PM has still not allowed a proper criminal investigation to find out the movement of money as far as the Volcker enquiry is concerned.
Karan Thapar: Who was point-scoring from the day the Pathak report came out? Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha and, possibly, L K Advani. They reduced an issue of corruption to a matter of scoring points.
Arun Jaitley: The Volcker issue was raised by the BJP. I, in particular, had raised it. And our party stand has been always clear as far as this issue is concerned. Please don’t confuse this issue with Mr Yashwant Sinha taking up the nuclear issue and seeking support from people who would support him on the nuclear issue.
Karan Thapar: Let’s take up the nuclear issue. You have brought it up twice. You were, in fact, the architects of the original change in the relationship with Washington. You wanted a deal like this. Instead of offering constructive support, you have metamorphosed into the most strident critics. This reversal of positions shows people that the BJP is neither consistent in its beliefs, nor does it stick about it.
Arun Jaitley: Let’s not get into responses only in the nature of sound bytes. Let’s look at the essence of the issue. Even though we wanted a proper deal with the United States, our deal envisaged India’s independent foreign policy not to be compromised with and India’s options and choices not to be restricted. And when in the final document as also in the discussions, which have been going on in the US, our party felt this was being done, Mr Yashwant Sinha and Mr Arun Shourie in Parliament very effectively raised the issue.
Karan Thapar: Effectively? Let me tell you where you ended up today by raising an issue of opposition for Opposition’s sake. You are in the company of the Samajwadi Party and the Communists, both of whom have a visceral hatred for the US because of its stand on terror and its commitment to a free market --- issues where you side with Washington.
Arun Jaitley: I think we disagree as far as the Left and Samajwadi Party is concerned on their attitude as far as the issues you have just mentioned.
Karan Thapar: You made common calls.
Arun Jaitley: No. Our approach has been guided essentially by India’s nationalist consideration. Theirs may have been guided by the traditional….
Karan Thapar: Yashwant Sinha looked as if he was a puppet for Amar Singh or Sitaram Yechury. That was the extent to which I think the BJP’s image was affected.
Arun Jaitley: Those who heard Mr Yashwant Sinha and Mr Arun Shourie’s speeches in Parliament will not share the perception that you are making.
Karan Thapar: Finally, today again simply to score points at the cost of the government, you have mandated that all schools in BJP-ruled states have to sing in a compulsory fashion Vande Mataram on September 7 completely forgetting that in 1999, when Kalyan Singh tried to do the same thing, L K Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee disagreed with the decision. The decision was revoked and Ravinder Shukla, the education minister responsible, was sacked.
Arun Jaitley: Let’s be clear on what was the background of the issue. Today, it is the UPA Government, which first decided that September 7 would be the centenary of the issue.
Karan Thapar: I’m simply asking you why are you reversing your stand?
Arun Jaitley: We are not reversing our position. We are opposed to any form of disrespect to a symbol of India’s national honour.
Karan Thapar: This is the interesting thing. Even on the issue what you actually are standing for, your own individuals are contradicting each other. Purushottam Ropala said that it won’t be compulsory in madrasas, so does V K Malhotra. But Ghanshyam Tiwari says it will be. Rajnath Singh says singing is compulsory. L K Advani says he is only concerned about no disrespect.
Arun Jaitley: I think hair-splitting is not what is required at the moment.
Karan Thapar: This is not hair-splitting, it is confusion in the ranks.
Arun Jaitley: The broad issue is, the BJP will not accept any disrespect to a symbol of India’s national honour. The others are willing to come under pressure from certain fundamentalist groups.
Karan Thapar: Let me put it this way. On all the four issues that I have discussed with you - Jaswant Singh, Natwar Singh, Vande Mataram and the nuclear deal --- you sought to embarrass the government, you ended up embarrassing yourself. That’s why you are sinking in the polls.
Arun Jaitley: I think on all the issues --- whether it is our stand on Volcker or it’s out stand on the nuclear deal or our stand on Vande Mataram --- a very large section of national opinion is going to support us.
Karan Thapar: Well, so you hope but the polls suggest otherwise. Mr Jaitley, a pleasure talking to you.
Arun Jaitley: Thank you.
(For updates you can share with your friends, follow IBNLive on Facebook, Twitter and Google+)
displayed with permission. Use of the CNN name and/or logo on or as part of CNN-IBN does not derogate from the intellectual property rights of Cable News Network in respect of them.