Devil's Advocate: Ex-NSA says N-deal is a must for India

QUOTE UNQUOTE: Brajesh Mishra says it will be a loss for India not to go ahead with the N-deal.

          

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What does Brajesh Mishra, former national security advisor, think of the Indo-US nuclear deal and developments in Pakistan? Karan Thapar asked him on Devil’s Advocate.

Karan Thapar: As a former national security advisor are you satisfied that if India goes ahead with the deal it won’t in any way damage or constraint its strategic nuclear deterrent?

Brajesh Mishra: Well, after the talks I've had with various representatives of the Government of India at a fairly high level and some scientists, I'm convinced that there is not going to be any major impact on the strategic programme through the deal. If there is any impact on the programme it is because we have other constraints, like lack of fuel. That is a possibility but not through this deal. This deal doesn't stop us from continuing our strategic programme in the way we have tried to do in the past.

Karan Thapar: Are you satisfied with the Government’s claim that the deal won’t in any way lead to India losing its rights to carry further nuclear tests?

Brajesh Mishra: There is no doubt about it that there's no bar on India undertaking nuclear tests. Of course exercising that option means a lot of hardships, economic and otherwise, because sanctions will inevitably follow. People talk about the Hyde Act not permitting nuclear tests but that is not really true. It is the 1954 Act of the US Congress and the mother of all Acts—it imposes conditions and sanctions on those who undertake nuclear tests.

We're not barred from undertaking tests if we're ready to pay the costs of sanctions, etc.

Karan Thapar: So, both in terms of future nuclear tests and in terms of any damage done to India’s strategic nuclear deterrent you are relatively satisfied that if India signs the nuclear deal there will be no deleterious effect in either case?

Brajesh Mishra: Yes, as far as the testing is concerned there is really no bar and as far deterrence is concerned, knowing the conditions in this country and knowing what has happened in the past, I would say I am more or less satisfied.

Karan Thapar: Do you accept that if a future Democratic President in America were to sign the CTBT, which many believe would be likely to be the case, he or she would inevitably set in motion a chain of events which would leave India also signing and thus foreclosing forever the option of nuclear tests?

Brajesh Mishra: But why do you think it is only a Democratic candidate who might do it. There is a possibility that a Republican President would seek Congressional approval for ratification of the treaty.

Karan Thapar: So whenever an American President signs CTBT a chain of events would be set in motion which would lead to India singing as well and therefore the option of nuclear tests would be closed forever at that time.

Brajesh Mishra: The US has already signed it, the question is of ratification. Since one is fairly certain that the Democrats will continue to control both Houses of the Congress I would say the ratification will come through. In that case will India stand in the way of the treaty coming into effect—I doubt it.

Karan Thapar: Therefore, in due course—possibly within two-three years— America will ratify CTBT, India will be forced to follow through and the option of nuclear tests will be closed.