I am a spectator, not kingmaker: Karat

Many believe Prakash Karat, General Secretary of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), will be kingmaker when votes for the General Elections are counted on May 16. Karan Thapar spoke to him about the electoral prospects of the four Left parties and the economic crisis facing the country.

Karan Thapar: We are almost at the end of this elections, so let us start with the electoral prospects of the four Left parties. In 2004 you won a record 60 seats. Can you accept that this time around you cannot win as many as those seats?

Prakash Karat: Well, I cannot give a number but we are confident that we will do well this time also.

Karan Thapar: But you are accepting that you will win less than 60?

Prakash Karat: Well, 60 is the highest we have got and we are trying hard to maintain that.

Karan Thapar: So, 40-50, any idea where it would be?

Prakash Karat: No, I think both in Bengal and Kerala we are going to get clear majority of seats. So, I don't really see the number going down much.

Karan Thapar: Not going down much, so you could be 55?

Prakash Karat: I can't say; we haven't made any sort of calculation.

Karan Thapar: Let's come to the Third Front, because even if you end up at 55 for the four Left parties you are at least five below that figure (2004). So, can you accept that the Third Front won't win as many seats as either the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)?

Prakash Karat: No, I think the Third Front is going to do well and if you take into account the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also--though they are fighting separately but they will come together with us--I think we will be doing pretty well. And I think we will match the Congress or the BJP.

Karan Thapar: So, you are actually saying to me that the Third Front can be the second out of the three?

Prakash Karat: No, we may be number one because don't forget that the UPA practically ceases to exist so we are talking about the Congress with very few allies.

Karan Thapar: So, now with just one round of polling left, you are actually saying to me that the Third Front could be the number one formation?

Prakash Karat: I think the struggle is between the Congress and the remaining allies it has and the non-Congress and the non-BJP parties.

Karan Thapar: Which means you have written off the BJP there?

Prakash Karat: I think that the BJP is not going to be reckoning there.

Karan Thapar: The problem is that whether you are first, second or third can you accept that your hope of forming a Third Front government critically depends upon bringing new parties in the Third Front alliance?

Prakash Karat: Yes, after the elections some of the non-Congress secular parties will have to decide on the question of aligning with the new combination.

Karan Thapar: And if you form a Third Front government then they have to come to you because if they don't come to you, you can't form a government.

Prakash Karat: Yes, that is true but this is also very clear that no one can form a government without their involvement or support.

Karan Thapar: But the problem that the Third Front faces is that for every Samajwadi Party (SP), you may lose Mayawati and for every Lalu or Paswan that comes to you, you won't get Nitish. Why I am saying this to you is because you can only gain allies by losing allies.

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Prakash Karat: No, we are not thinking of such allies. They are with the Congress party; I don't expect them to come to us.

Karan Thapar: Then who are you looking to?

Prakash Karat: We are looking at Janata Dal-United (JD-U), NCP and such parties.

Karan Thapar: Do you think that the JD-U will sacrifice its government in Bihar and break with the BJP to come to you?

Prakash Karat: Post-elections there will be realignment and I am saying that it will be for them to decide. I hope they take their decision.

Karan Thapar: What can you offer Nitish Kumar to compensate for the fact that if he breaks with the BJP he will undoubtedly lose his government in Patna?

Prakash Karat: I think Nitish Kumar has carved out a very strong position in Bihar and independently he is a major force, so I think he can take the plunge just like Naveen Patnaik has done.

Karan Thapar: But what can you offer him?

Prakash Karat: We couldn't afford to offer anything to Naveen Patnaik but I think he (Nitish Kumar) will emerge as a major force in Bihar and he could go ahead without the BJP or any other political party.

Karan Thapar: Buddhadeb Bhattarcharjee has said that the Third Front and the Left parties in particular are already in touch with Nitish Kumar, can you confirm that?

Prakash Karat: With the JD-U, yes.

Karan Thapar: With the JD-U but not Nitish Kumar?

Prakash Karat: No, we are talking about the JD-U leadership saying that they have a significant role to play after the elections.

Karan Thapar: Is Nitish Kumar in the loop of these talks?

Prakash Karat: No, I can't say whether we are talking to him. All this will happen only after the elections.

Karan Thapar: Let me put this to you. No matter how many Nitish Kumars and the NCPs you bring in but if you don't have sufficient number of 272 then you are still dependent on either the Congress or the BJP. The Third Front without having anyone of these two will not have the sufficient number.

Prakash Karat: No one else will also not have the number.

Karan Thapar: That can be so, but do you accept that the Third Front will need either the BJP or the Congress' support.

Prakash Karat: I have said this earlier that will be for the Congress to take a decision whether they facilitate the formation of a secular government at the Centre.

Karan Thapar: Which of the two would you prefer to be supported by - BJP or Congress?

Prakash Karat: There is no question of taking the support from the BJP.

Karan Thapar: So, you are ready to take support from the Congress but there is no question of taking the BJP's support?

Prakash Karat: Well, I am saying it will be the Congress to decide; when they can't form the government with the number they have and the allies.

Karan Thapar: You said a very important thing that there is no question of taking the BJP's support.

Prakash Karat: We are very clear that we want a non-Congress secular government.

Karan Thapar: But if you fall short on your own...

Prakash Karat: We can't have a secular government supported by the BJP.

Karan Thapar: So, the only party you can take support from is the Congress.

Prakash Karat: No, I said that there are other non-Congress secular parties also.

Karan Thapar: Let me put it up like this. If we end up with a very finely hung up Parliament--this is what many have predicted--if the Third Front hasn't got the required number would you be ready to support the UPA or the NDA or would you force another election?

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Prakash Karat: All I can say is that we are working seriously for a non-Congress government at the Centre and if that is not going to happen then we would discuss after the elections what we should do.

Karan Thapar: So, you are prepared to countenance another elections?

Prakash Karat: No, what I am saying this very clearly that it is not the Left which is going to take a decision isolated from its allies. Whatever decision we might take will be taken together by the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the AIADMK etc.

Karan Thapar: In which case it may be possible that your allies which may not want another election (and) might pressure the CPI-M or the Left parties on a whole to support a Congress-led government.

Prakash Karat: I don't think that the allies which we have will take this decision.

Karan Thapar: What worries many people that while Prakash Karat repeatedly says that the Congress party is living in a fool's paradise, the Congress shouldn't dream of getting our support, he is somewhere by default supporting the prospects of a LK Advani's prime ministership.

Prakash Karat: I don't think that the BJP is going to be in the picture at all. And if Congress will keep asking for Left's support then I am telling the Congress party that they'll have to deal with this combination of 10-11 parties.

Karan Thapar: Quite true and the decision will be taken by this combination and not by the CPI-M or the Left. Which means if seven parties (three more than the four Left parties) decide that they don't want another election and want to support a Congress. Will you go with that majority or break this combination?

Prakash Karat: Yes, we will go with whatever this combination decides and we are confident that this combination will remain steadfast in having a non-Congress government at the Centre.

Karan Thapar: Let me put this to you. If it comes to a situation where there are just handful of seats separating the BJP and the Congress, would you then be ready to support the Congress-led government to keep BJP and everything which you hate out of power?

Prakash Karat: As I have already said that the UPA is disintegrating, the allies that the Congress has are very undependable, like the Trinamool Congress in Bengal; in such case the Congress will find itself completely isolated and then they will have to consider an alternative secular government.

Karan Thapar: Let me repeat this question in different form. Could you do for the Congress what you did for United Front in 1990s? In another words support a UPA government where the Congress is in the UPA, possibly in the UPA steering committee or its equivalent but not in the government, could you support that?

Prakash Karat: No, I am saying the position may be reverse. In 2009, the Congress will have to consider the prospects of supporting a secular government.

Karan Thapar: Suppose, the Congress decide that they will not support the Third Front under any condition.

Prakash Karat: We will decide all of this after the elections.

Karan Thapar: So, the message that the people of India will get is that the man who in many ways could be the kingmaker on May 16 is playing with the dice in such a way that we could go straight from one election to another with uncertainty and instability.

Prakash Karat: I don't think politics works out that way. I am a spectator and not the kingmaker.

Karan Thapar: So what you are saying to me that Left parties in whole will not do much worse than last time, they will get 50-55 seats and that the Third Front will end up as number one. And both of these people doubt so they would say that though he (Prakash Karat) is not playing with the instability he is making castles in the air.

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Prakash Karat: There is no question of instability. There will be a government and as I have said time and again that if we won't be able to form the government we will be in the Opposition.

Karan Thapar: Let’s talk about the economic crisis India is facing. As you look at the economy, just days before, you actually might be in a position to handle it, do you see green shoots of recovery or do you see an unmitigated continuing economic crisis?

Prakash Karat: I think the Government has underestimated the adverse impact of the global economic crisis. They started off by saying that our fundamentals are strong and then came to gradual realisation that things are not so good. And, I think that for a pretty long time, we will be faced with serious problems in our economy.

Karan Thapar: Let’s see by what extent has the Government underestimated things. The Government claims that in 2009-2010, the economy could grow between 6 per cent-6.5 per cent. The World Bank and the IMF slashed this figure down to about 4 per cent, Oxford Economics comes in even lower at 3.2. What sort of growth you think is possible?

Prakash Karat:I think again the Government is underestimating the crisis, so the growth will be lower and more dangerous is the fact that they are not recognising the serious loss of jobs in the country. I think in the last six months, we have lost about 20 to 25 lakh jobs, and they are not talking about it also.

Karan Thapar: Would you say that unemployment aspect of this crisis is in fact the worst and the most serious one?

Prakash Karat: In terms of the humans cost immediately, it is the job loss, but the more serious is the facts that the government’s fiscal stimulus package and all the measures that they are taking have been far to inadequate. Among the G20 countries, we are the fourth lowest in terms of the fiscal stimulus that we have so far offered.

Karan Thapar: You are arguing, therefore, for a greater fiscal stimulus, a greater boost to get demand going and yet people point out that already the overall stimulus of the central government alone could have increased beyond 8 per cent heading towards 9, and it will add in the 3 and 3.5 of the States becoming perilously close to 12 per cent.

Prakash Karat: I think what we should focus on is not the deficit but we should focus on increasing public expenditure. You have to pump in money into the economy. And the Government has to do that and that will create demand, it will protect jobs and create new jobs.

Karan Thapar: So what you are saying is that you need to put in more money and don’t need to worry about the fact that a consequence of this is rising fiscal deficit?

Prakash Karat: They are going about the wrong way. They are trying to see that cheap credit is available; interest rates are lowered, but the real thing is you need to put money in people’s pockets. Purchasing power has to increase.

Karan Thapar: Let me sum up as to what you are saying. You are saying that the Government is tackling the problem from the wrong end. It is trying to make money cheaper, it is trying to expand the flow of money but the problem is that no one wants to take the money. What they should be doing is putting money in peoples’ pocket, so they spend and create demand.

Prakash Karat: Exactly.

Karan Thapar: But how do they put money in peoples’ pocket?

Prakash Karat: The Rs 20,000-crore fiscal package which the Government gave is nothing. It is half a per cent of the GDP, so you should spend more. The Government should not worry about the fiscal responsibility, budget management act and all of that. They have to pump in money.

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Karan Thapar: So in other words, if you were to be in a position to determining the response to the economic crisis, how high would you let the fiscal deficit go? It is already teetering around 8 to 9, would you push it beyond 10?

Prakash Karat: Yes definitely beyond 10.

Karan Thapar: How much higher?

Prakash Karat: That I will have to see. I can’t tell you off the cuff. But what I am saying is you can go for increase in expenditure, plan expenditure much more.

Karan Thapar: Let me put to you a main problem. Your main concern is that as you boost up the fiscal deficit and as you ensure that money gets into peoples’ pockets is to create demand so that they spend. But the problem is that your manifesto commits you to what may consider draconian type measures which will actually retard recovery because it will frighten investors and entrepreneurs. Aren’t the two contradictory?

Prakash Karat: I don’t think so. We are talking about taxes on very narrow spectrum of areas where you could have easily raised money, like the capital gains tax.

Karan Thapar: But you are also talking about increasing security transaction tax, about wealth tax.

Prakash Karat: Some of them are long term. What I am saying is in the immediate situation that we have, the FIIs have taken out money not because any taxation problems within the country.

Karan Thapar: Clearly, this manifesto was written without your being in power. If you were to come to power, you would notice the gravity of the situation. Already your conversation suggests that you have some idea of how grave things are? Could you therefore, when you look at the gravity of the situation, push the deficit first, increase the spending, and therefore increase demand, and therefore say we will consciously roll back on the tax increases for a while?

Prakash Karat: We have in our manifesto a section on immediate measures to be taken to meet the economic crisis. And we also pointed out that it’s a long-term argument that our financial sector has been relatively protected. Not thanks to Dr Manmohan Singh and Mr P Chidambaram, (but) because the Left would not allow them to completely liberalise and open up the financial sector.

Karan Thapar: The challenge that you face, if you come to power is to get the economy moving again. And in that wider interest, could you say that look we hold back the tax increases that we are committed to in our manifesto?

Prakash Karat: We will increase the public investment and public expenditure, but there are certain areas that we will not. For example, participatory notes, we will stop it.

Karan Thapar: One of the great fears that people have of the Left party is that when you come anywhere near power, people get frightened about what it will do to economy, what it will do to growth and what it will do to their capacity or their requirement to pay their tax.

Prakash Karat: The record of the Left government in Kolkata and Kerala makes it clear that they have nothing to worry about or be unreasonably afraid about.

Karan Thapar: Are you saying to the audience listening to you that just by Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s track record in Bengal rather than by the rhetoric from Delhi?

Prakash Karat: In fact, we are having a discussion about West Bengal that their tax realization is very low compared to many other states, and they must increase their tax revenue.

Karan Thapar: In other words, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee is going to be kicking up taxes?

Prakash Karat: Not the type of taxes that are levied by the Centre.

Karan Thapar: The message is that the rhetoric in Delhi will triumph over Buddhadeb Bhattarcharjee's track record and taxes will go up?

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Prakash Karat: We are talking about states have sound finances, raising resources. We are discussing this matter even in West Bengal.

Karan Thapar: Are you confident that you actually have the experience and the capacity to handle what must the worst economic crisis or will it be a case of novices coming in and failure?

Prakash Karat: The Third Front combination has very experienced people in the government. Most of them have been long-standing chief ministers.

Karan Thapar: Has the Third Front actually sat together and worked out how to tackle this crisis?

Prakash Karat: We have started looking at all the manifestos. I find that very interesting but there are a lot of common things of all these parties.

Karan Thapar: So only now you are putting together a coherent strategy?

Prakash Karat: We have to work on it after the elections. That is how it’s done. Common programme came after the elections.

Karan Thapar: Good bye and good night.