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Jan 21, 2014 at 12:42pm IST

Election Tracker: BJP ahead in Jharkhand, Congress strong in Assam

New Delhi: Jharkhand is seeing a Narendra Modi wave with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to garner 40 per cent of the votes in the state if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014.

The Congress, which in alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), runs the state government, is likely to get just 20 per cent votes in the mineral-rich state. Shibu Soren's JMM and Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) are likely to get 8 and 7 per cent of votes respectively according to the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.

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Most respondents feel that Babulal Marandi has been the best Chief Minister of Jharkhand after the state came into existence in 2000. Another former CM Arjun Munda has got 14 per cent support.

But the present scenario is not very good for the current regime as most respondents are unhappy with the way the state is being run. 51 per cent people are dissatisfied with the Congress-JMM government in the state.

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Twenty-five per cent of the respondents hold the Congress responsible for the state not doing well while 14 per cent hold the BJP responsible for this.

The BJP voters are most supportive of an alliance with JVM while Congress-JMM voters feel that the alliance should continue. On the other hand, JVM supporters back an alliance with the JD(U).

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Modi leads PM race

When it comes to the choice of Prime Minister, once again Narendra Modi leads the race. He is getting the support of 37 per cent of Jharkhand's voters. Rahul Gandhi is getting 15 per cent support and Arvind Kejriwal is getting 5 per cent support.

AAP impact in Jharkhand

A total of 63 per cent of the people surveyed have heard of the AAP and 47 per cent of the respondents want the AAP to contest from their Lok Sabha seats. But only 22 per cent want to vote for the AAP.

The sample size for Jharkhand is 972.


In some good news for the Congress, the party is likely to do very well in Assam if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014. The party will, in fact, increase its vote share from 35 per cent in 2009 elections to 47 per cent now as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.

The BJP is also expected to increase its share from 16 per cent in 2009 to 19 now while Asom Gana Parishad's (AGP) share sees a big drop from 15 to 9 per cent. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), too, is witnessing erosion in its support base. The party will get just 10 per cent of votes in January 2014 from 16 in last elections.

Most people are satisfied with Assam's Congress government with 50 per cent replying in the affirmative and 37 expressing their displeasure with the way the state is being governed.

The satisfaction with Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's performance gets the support of 47 per cent of those surveyed while 40 per cent are dissatisfied. The pro-state government mood in Assam continues with 45 per cent in favour of giving the Congress another chance and only 26 per cent against it.

Assam is also among the few states where people want to give the UPA government another chance.

When asked should the UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 59 per cent said yes and only 16 per cent replied in the negative.

There is no AAP impact in Assam yet with only 35 per cent saying they have heard of it. Only 3 per cent of the respondents want it to contest from their Lok Sabha seats and just one per cent are likely to vote for it in Lok Sabha polls.

(Disclaimer: There are no seats projection for Jharkhand and Assam due to the small sample size.)

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