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Jul 26, 2013 at 02:39pm IST

Election tracker: Jaya leads in TN, Cong in Karnataka, Andhra divided

Political battles in the southern states have traditionally been between the Congress and regional parties except in Tamil Nadu where the grand old party of India has been reduced to one of the also-rans. On the other hand the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after a spectacular rise in Karnataka has been struggling to make a mark and it is almost non-existent in other states.

According to a CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu survey in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka the ruling parties in the respective states are sitting pretty. But the survey reveals that in Andhra Pradesh the Congress, which had swept the state in 2009, is facing a tough time over Telangana and the rise of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.

Tamil Nadu voters are behind the government of AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa and rate it better than the previous M Karunanidhi regime. The Karunanidhi-led DMK's decision to withdraw from Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is also viewed as a political drama.

The satisfaction with Jayalalithaa administration is down from 70 per cent in 2011 to 65 per cent in 2013 and dissatisfaction up from 16 per cent two years ago to 28 per cent at present.

While the vote shares of the AIADMK, Congress and BJP has increased, the DMK has slipped further. But only the AIADMK is able to benefit from the increase in vote share and is likely to win 16-20 in July 2013 seats compared to only nine in 2009. In spite of a three percentage increase in vote share to 18 per cent from 15, the Congress's tally is likely to fall between 1-5 seats from eight.

The DMK, too, will see a drop in the number of seats. The party will end up with 8-12 MPs from 18 in the current Lok Sabha. The other smaller parties are likely to bag 2-14 seats.

In Karnataka it is almost a straight fight between the Congress and BJP with Janata Dal (Secular) also strong in a few seats. While the vote share of Congress has gone up to 47 per cent in July 2013 from 32 in 2009, what is startling is the steep fall of 22 per cent in the BJP vote share. While the party got 42 per cent votes in 2009, only 20 per cent of the voters are in the party's favour now. Former prime minister HD Deve Gowda's JDS has seen a marginal increase of two per cent in its vote share.

The massive swing in the votes also see a corresponding change in the seats of the parties with the Congress bouncing back from the 2009 drubbing to win 18-22 seats as compared to six in 2009. The BJP's tally is likely to fall from 19 to 2-6 seats with the JDS will also bag 2-6 seats.

Former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, who floated KJP after quitting BJP, is not seen as a major factor in the state. Though 27 per cent of the voters feel that Yeddyurappa should not return to BJP, a slight bigger number (32 per cent) are in favour of him coming back to the party on his own while 17 per cent feel he should return to BJP only if BJP asks him to.

The situation in Andhra Pradesh is much more complex with the Congress clearly on a downhill but no other party seems to be capable of having a pan-state appeal.

Telangana issue remains very important with 55 per cent saying the stand on the issue of the separate state will affect their decision of whom to vote for. Jagan Mohan is the clear winner at 25 per cent votes for leading Andhra and 29 per cent feel that he is being falsely implicated while 34 per cent feel he is corrupt.

The Congress vote share has seen a seven per cent decline in vote share. The party will get the support of 32 per cent voters in 2013 compared to 39 in 2009. The BJP will have seven per cent voters backing it as against only four per cent during the last Lok Sabha elections. The YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan, which did not exist in 2009, will bag 20 votes while the Telugu Desam Party of Chandababu Naidu has also seen an eight percentage fall to 17 from 25 per cent in 2009. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi is the other big gainer and the party's vote share will swell to 13 per cent from six during the 2009 polls.

Andhra had virtually ensured in 2009 that the Congress-led UPA would come back to power but in 2013 the state is all set to give a huge shock to the ruling alliance. The Congress is likely to see its tally drop from 33 seats to anything between 11 and 15 while Jagan Mohan's party will also win 11-15 seats.

The TDP, which has six MPs in the current Lok Sabha, may win 6-10 seats. The TRS will see its tally jump to 5-9 seats from two at present. Other smaller parties are likely to bag 0-4 seats.