BATTLE FOR GUJARAT
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Exit polls show Gujarat swinging away from BJP
Published on Wed, Dec 12, 2007 at 00:00, Updated on Wed, Dec 12, 2007 at 00:23 in 
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New Delhi: A series of different exit polls after the first phase of polling in 87 Assembly constituencies in Gujarat on Tuesday showed a definite swing away from the BJP, giving clear hints that it might end in a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and BJP this time around.
Appearing on CNN-IBN's special programme on the Gujarat polls Tuesday night, noted psephologist Yogendra Yadav said if the final voter turnout is revised upward, it might mean big losses for the BJP.
"Even a 2 per cent swing away means the BJP loses substantial votes. A small change in the voting can make a huge difference," he said.
According to initial estimates of the Election Commission, the first phase of polls witnessed an estimated 59 to 60 per cent turnout in the 87 constituencies of Saurashtra and South Gujarat. While this turnout is normal for this region, it is likely that the poll panel may revise the same in its final turnout figures.
CNN-IBN suggested a neck-and-neck battle between the Congress and BJP. "Modi wanted the polls to be a plebiscite on himself, but the turnout shows it is a tight election. It is a negative signal for the BJP, maybe not as negative as the Congress wanted, but negative for the BJP," Yogendra Yadav observed.
According to CNN-IBN, the Gujarat election this time has been swayed more by factors like caste and other local issues than developmental politics that Chief Minister Narendra Modi had been talking about. The second and final phase of the polling is due Sunday.
Exit polls by Star News and NDTV, too, showed a clear edge for the Congress in Saurashtra and South Gujarat. The Star News poll said Congress will get 37 seats, a gain of seven while NDTV projected 43 seats for the party, up by 13 from its 2002 poll tally in the region that went to polls on Tuesday.
The NDTV survey put the BJP tally at 40, a loss of 13 seats, while Star News gave the saffron party 48, five less than what it had got in the last elections. The overall projection of Star News was 115 seats for the BJP, down 12; 64 for Congress, a gain of 13 and three for others.
The NDTV survey showed BJP getting 26 seats as against 39 in 2002 polls in the rebel-hit Saurashtra. The region has 58 constituencies. According to it, Congress will get 31 and others one in the region.
In South Gujarat, BJP, Congress and others maintain their 2002 poll tally winning 14, 12 and two seats respectively, the exit poll said. The region has 28 Assembly segments.
(With PTI inputs)
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