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Facebook users can influence results in 30% of Lok Sabha seats in 2014

IBNLive.com
Apr 12, 2013 at 05:05pm IST

New Delhi: In the 2012 US presidential election Facebook was called the "the real presidential swing state" and helped Barack Obama win a second term. This influence of Facebook in determining which button voters press at the polling booth is likely to affect results in as much as 30 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections, says a study by IRIS Knowledge Foundation and the Internet and Mobile Association of India.

"In today's India, the number of social media users to achieve this end has reached a tipping point. May be not in every one of the 543 constituencies but certainly in a significant number of them to warrant the conclusion that they have the power to influence elections and therefore government formation," the report titled Social Media & Lok Sabha Elections says.

Terming Facebook as the new votebank Indian politicians now have to worry about, the study identifies 160 Lok Sabha constituencies as 'high impact', in which the number of Facebook users are more than the margin of victory of the winner in the last Lok Sabha election, or where Facebook users account for over 10 per cent of the voting population.

Facebook users can influence results in 30% of Lok Sabha seats in 2014

In many constituencies the number of Facebook users is more than the margin of victory of the winner in 2009.

The study has also identified 'medium impact' and 'low impact' constituencies. 67 constituencies are categorised as 'medium impact' while 60 are 'low impact' and the remainder 256 have been classified as 'no impact' constituiences.

Maharashtra has the maximum 21 high impact constituencies followed by Gujarat (17). Uttar Pradesh has 14 high impact constituencies, while Karnataka has 12 such seats. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala has 12, 11 and 10 such seats respectively. Madhya Pradesh has nine high impact constituencies while Delhi has seven. Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan have five high impact constituencies each while Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and West Bengal have four such constituencies.

Analysing the wins of the two main political parties, the study finds that, "75 of the 206 seats won (36 per cent) by the Congress and 43 of the 144 seats (30 per cent) where they finished second are counted among the high impact constituencies."

In the case of the BJP, the findings said that, "44 of the 116 seats (37 per cent) they won and 50 of the 110 seats (46 per cent) they lost fall in the high impact category."

The advantages of election campaigning on social media vis-à-vis traditional forms of campaigning has also been highlighted, "Unlike traditional campaigning which is mandatorily required to come to a close 48 hours before the polls, it is unlikely that the Election Commission will be able to legislate and enforce silence on social media networks as it would be tantamount to stifling the voice of the people. Which means that any development even in the hours of polling can potentially influence voter behaviour as the information will spread like wild fire. What this also means is that savvy candidates can harness the power of social media to unleash a guerrilla campaign on their opponents without giving them the time to respond"

The researchers accumulated Facebook data available publicly to determine age and residency of Facebook users in India and compared it with data from the Election Commission for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

The study acknowledges that its approach "can be dismissed for being simple to the point of being simplistic," but asserts that "No contestant can afford to ignore social media in the next Lok Sabha election. Just as they have budgets for traditional media spend and on the ground activity, it is important that they have a specific budget for social media activity."

High impact constituencies

State

Constituency

Winner in 2009

Andhra Pradesh

Hyderabad

Asaduddin Owaisi

Andhra Pradesh

Visakhapatnam

Daggubati Purandeswari

Andhra Pradesh

Vijayawada

Lagadapati Raja Gopal

Andhra Pradesh

Guntur

Rayapati Sambasiva Rao

Andhra Pradesh

Rajahmundry

Aruna Kumar Vundavalli

Andhra Pradesh

Kakinada

M.M.Pallamraju

Andhra Pradesh

Tirupati

Chinta Mohan

Andhra Pradesh

Nellore

Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy

Andhra Pradesh

Karimnagar

Ponnam Prabhakar

Andhra Pradesh

Narasaraopet

Modugula Venugopala Reddy

Andhra Pradesh

Chittoor

Naramalli Sivaprasad

Arunachal Pradesh

Arunachal West

Takam Sanjoy

Assam

Dibrugarh

Paban Singh Ghatowar

Assam

Silchar

Kabindra Purkayastha

Assam

Tezpur

Joseph Toppo

Bihar

Pataliputra

Ranjan Prasad Yadav

Bihar

Patna Sahib

Shatrughan Sinha

Bihar

Muzaffarpur

Captain  Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad

Bihar

Buxar

Jagada Nand Singh

Chandigarh

Chandigarh

Pawan Kumar Bansal

Chattisgarh

Raipur

Ramesh Bais

Chattisgarh

Bilaspur

Dilip Singh Judev

Chattisgarh

Korba

Charan Das Mahant

Chattisgarh

Durg

Saroj Pandey

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Dadar & Nagar Haveli

Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai

Goa

North Goa

Shripad Yesso Naik

Goa

South Goa

Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha

Gujarat

Surat

Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh

Gujarat

Rajkot

Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia

Gujarat

Bhavnagar

Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)

Gujarat

Jamnagar

Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam

Gujarat

Kheda

Dinsha Patel

Gujarat

Valsad

Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel

Gujarat

Panchmahal

Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh

Gujarat

Junagadh

Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai

Gujarat

Bharuch

Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava

Gujarat

Banaskantha

Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji

Gujarat

Anand

Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh

Gujarat

Mahesana

Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai

Gujarat

Sabarkantha

Chauhan Mahendrasinh

Gujarat

Patan

Jagdish Thakor

Gujarat

Surendranagar

Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal

Gujarat

Ahmedabad East

Harin Pathak

Gujarat

Ahmedabad West

Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai

Haryana

Gurgaon

Inderjit Singh

Haryana

Faridabad

Avtar Singh Bhadana

Haryana

Ambala

Selja

Haryana

Sirsa

Ashok Tanwar

Haryana

Hisar

Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj

Himachal Pradesh

Mandi

Virbhadra Singh

Himachal Pradesh

Kangra

Dr. Rajan Sushant

Jammu & Kashmir

Srinagar

Farooq Abdullah

Jammu & Kashmir

Jammu

Madan Lal Sharma

Jammu & Kashmir

Anantnag

Mirza Mehboob Beg

Jammu & Kashmir

Udhampur

Ch. Lal Singh

Jharkhand

Ranchi

Subodh Kant Sahay

Jharkhand

Jamshedpur

Arjun Munda

Jharkhand

Dhanbad

Pashupati Nath Singh

Jharkhand

Singhbhum

Madhu Kora

Karnataka

Mysore

Adagur H Vishwanath

Karnataka

Dakshina Kannada

Nalin Kumar Kateel

Karnataka

Gulbarga

Mallikarjun Kharge

Karnataka

Bellary

J. Shantha

Karnataka

Davanagere

G.M. Siddeswara

Karnataka

Udupi Chikmagalur

D.V.Sadananda Gowda

Karnataka

Tumkur

G.S. Basavaraj

Karnataka

Uttara Kannada

Anantkumar Hegde

Karnataka

Bangalore Rural

H.D.Kumaraswamy

Karnataka

Bangalore North

D. B. Chandre Gowda

Karnataka

Bangalore Central

P. C. Mohan

Karnataka

Bangalore South

Ananth Kumar

Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram

Shashi Tharoor

Kerala

Ernakulam

Prof. K V Thomas

Kerala

Palakkad

M.B. Rajesh

Kerala

Kottayam

Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)

Kerala

Thrissur

P C Chacko

Kerala

Alappuzha

K.C Venugopal

Kerala

Kollam

N.Peethambarakurup

Kerala

Malappuram

E. Ahamed

Kerala

Kozhikode

M.K. Raghavan

Kerala

Kannur

K. Sudhakaran

Madhya Pradesh

Indore

Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)

Madhya Pradesh

Bhopal

Kailash Joshi

Madhya Pradesh

Gwalior

Yashodhara Raje Scindia

Madhya Pradesh

Jabalpur

Rakesh Singh

Madhya Pradesh

Ujjain

Guddu Premchand

Madhya Pradesh

Rewa

Deoraj Singh Patel

Madhya Pradesh

Satna

Ganesh Singh

Madhya Pradesh

Dewas

Sajjan Singh Verma

Madhya Pradesh

Dhar

Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi

Maharashtra

Pune

Kalmadi Suresh

Maharashtra

Nagpur

Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji

Maharashtra

Aurangabad

Chandrakant Khaire

Maharashtra

Nashik

Sameer  Bhujbal

Maharashtra

Thane

Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik

Maharashtra

Kolhapur

Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik

Maharashtra

Kalyan

Anand Prakash Paranjape

Maharashtra

Latur

Awale Jaywant Gangaram

Maharashtra

Dhule

Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao

Maharashtra

Sangli

Pratik Prakashbapu Patil

Maharashtra

Amravati

Adsul Anandrao Vithoba

Maharashtra

Jalna

Danve Raosaheb Dadarao

Maharashtra

Ahmadnagar

Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal

Maharashtra

Osmanabad

Patil Padamsinha Bajirao

Maharashtra

Chandrapur

Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram

Maharashtra

Mumbai North

Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam

Maharashtra

Mumbai North West

Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant

Maharashtra

Mumbai North East

Sanjay Dina Patil

Maharashtra

Mumbai North Central

Dutt Priya Sunil

Maharashtra

Mumbai South Central

Eknath M. Gaikwad

Maharashtra

Mumbai   South

Deora Milind Murli

NCT OF Delhi

Chandni Chowk

Kapil Sibal

NCT OF Delhi

North East Delhi

Jai Prakash Agarwal

NCT OF Delhi

East Delhi

Sandeep Dikshit

NCT OF Delhi

New Delhi

Ajay Makan

NCT OF Delhi

North West  Delhi

Krishna Tirath

NCT OF Delhi

West Delhi

Mahabal Mishra

NCT OF Delhi

South Delhi

Ramesh Kumar

Orissa

Sambalpur

Amarnath Pradhan

Punjab

Ludhiana

Manish Tewari

Punjab

Amritsar

Navjot Singh Sidhu

Punjab

Hoshiarpur

Santosh Chowdhary

Punjab

Patiala

Preneet Kaur

Punjab

Gurdaspur

Partap Singh Bajwa

Rajasthan

Jaipur

Mahesh Joshi

Rajasthan

Jodhpur

Chandresh Kumari

Rajasthan

Kota

Ijyaraj Singh

Rajasthan

Bikaner

Arjun Ram Meghwal

Rajasthan

Tonk-Sawai Madhopur

Namo Narain

Tamil Nadu

Coimbatore

Natarajan.P.R.

Tamil Nadu

Salem

Semmalai S

Tamil Nadu

Tirunelveli

Ramasubbu S

Tamil Nadu

Erode

Ganeshamurthi.A.

Tamil Nadu

Madurai

Alagiri M.K

Tamil Nadu

Viluppuram

Anandan M

Tamil Nadu

Virudhunagar

Manicka Tagore

Tamil Nadu

Kancheepuram

Viswanathan.P

Tamil Nadu

Sivaganga

Chidambaram  P

Tamil Nadu

Chennai North

Elangovan T.K.S

Tamil Nadu

Chennai South

Rajendran C

Tamil Nadu

Chennai Central

Dayanidhi Maran

Uttar Pradesh

Lucknow

Lal Ji Tandon

Uttar Pradesh

Kanpur

Sri Prakash Jaiswal

Uttar Pradesh

Gautam Buddh Nagar

Surendra Singh Nagar

Uttar Pradesh

Allahabad

Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani Ji

Uttar Pradesh

Varanasi

Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi

Uttar Pradesh

Agra

Dr. Ramshankar

Uttar Pradesh

Ghaziabad

Rajnath Singh

Uttar Pradesh

Meerut

Rajendra Agarwal

Uttar Pradesh

Bareilly

Praveen Singh Aron

Uttar Pradesh

Aligarh

Raj Kumari Chauhan

Uttar Pradesh

Moradabad

Mohammed Azharuddin

Uttar Pradesh

Muzaffarnagar

Kadir Rana

Uttar Pradesh

Chandauli

Ramkishun

Uttar Pradesh

Kheri

Zafar Ali Naqvi

Uttarakhand

Almora

Pradeep Tamta

West Bengal

Howrah

Ambica Banerjee

West Bengal

Balurghat

Prasanta Kumar Majumdar

West Bengal

Kolkata Dakshin

Mamata Banerjee

West Bengal

Kolkata Uttar

Sudip Bandyopadhyay

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