Click to play videoIt was polling day on Tuesday in Gujarat in the first phase of the Gujarat Assembly Elections 2007. Eighty-seven seats in Saurashtra and South Gujarat are up for grabs. What will be the fate of the high profile Chief Minister Narendra Modi?
Early exit polls predict a neck and neck battle. In a Battle For Gujarat Special hosted by Sagarika Ghose, CNN-IBN explores the latest trends in polls and their implications on the election result.
There was a good 60 per cent turnout of voters across Saurashtra and South Gujarat: will this make a difference to the election results?
With Saurashtra being the hotbed of caste assertion against the BJP, will the Koli and Patel rebellion significantly dent the fortunes of the BJP?
To answer some of these pertinent questions on the show were Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-in-Chief, CNN-IBN and Yogendra Yadav, political analyst with CSDS.
The big message of the polls is probably hidden in the turnout. If one were to believe the figures of the Election Commission, that the turnout is 59-60 per cent, then it is a good, but normal figure, said Yogendra Yadav. “My experience has been that the EC tends to revise the figure upwards so by the time we get that, we could be looking at a figure of 63-64 per cent. In that case, it is a record turnout,” he added.
What are the direct implications of the turnout? It depends on where the highest turnout is and why, said Yadav. “In 2002 it was seen that the highest turnout was in the constituencies where the riots and the massacre had taken place. The BJP benefited from that but that’s not the rule. In a region like Saurashtra, where the BJP was not expected to do well, where the RSS and VHP have not come out in support of the government, the voter turnout is high, it’s not a good sign for the BJP,” he said.
Trouble for Modi?
So is Saurashtra going to be the region where Modi meets the big defeat? “It’s possible. There is a big shift from the BJP stronghold in the region in 1998. From the 56 seats the part won out of 58, it could now go down to even 28-29 seats. Reports now suggest from the ground, that the Kolis, who have come in big numbers to vote, could be an important factor in determining the result. The Saurashtra Kolis are angry and rebellious and that could hurt Modi. The Patels, who have also come out in large numbers, however, seem to be staying with Modi,” said Rajdeep Sardesai.
Another demographic that has played a role in Tuesday’s poll trends is the women and youth factor. “Women in Gujarat have been great supporters of Modi. The Hindutva machismo has appealed to them,” Sardesai said.
At the same time in Saurashtra, there is a strong sense of regionalism, with local leaders having more appeal, he added.
Other exit polls
The CNN-IBN-Indian Express-CSDS Exit Poll will be out on the December 16, which will be a combination of Exit Poll and Post Poll survey.
That will give a much more statistically surer picture of which way the state is going this year. Meanwhile, here’s a look at what the Exit Polls of other channels are saying:
“Even though the readings of exit polls of the two channels are different, which is possible in a tight situation like this, both the polls are telling us at least one important thing. It’s a very tight race we are looking at. In a state like Gujarat, a very small swing can make a huge difference in a place like Gujarat and that is why the readings of exit polls might be different. There is a move away from 2002 and from the BJP,” explained Yadav.
Emphasizing that a small change in voting could make a huge difference to the number of seats with each party, Yadav said it would be better to wait for December 23 for the final result.
Missing issues?
Modi’s big advantage in this election could be a big emotive issue, which seems to be missing this time around. “Modi wanted this to be yet another extraordinary election and wanted this to be a plebiscite on himself and his slogan of Gujarati asmita. That hasn’t worked this time, which I read as a negative sign for the BJP," said Yadav.
A columnist has said that any Chief Minister that takes the politically suicidal step of implementing power reforms is asking for hara-kiri in politics. “It’s possible because his Jyoti Gram scheme has evoked mixed reactions. But this election is not about how much development he has done or how much of a Hindutva hero he is. This is a normal election being fought on local factors. Modi has tried to make it about himself, but deep down, normal politics is returning to Gujarat. Who benefits from that- we’ll know on Decemeber 16 and possibly on December 23,” concluded Sardesai.
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