Click to play videoAfter the BJP’s landmark victory in Karnataka there is a going belief that maybe the NDA now is ever closer to power at the Centre with the General Elections just nine months away. One man then could be the country’s prime minister-in-waiting. Is he that? Let’s find out from the man himself – leader of the Opposition LK Advani.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Congratulations on the victory in Karnataka. Am I right in saying prime minister-in-waiting?
LK Advani: Thank you. My party has declared me their candidate. Otherwise I used to say that it is only practised in UK that whosoever is the leader of the Opposition is supposed to be the prime minister-in-waiting. In my case the party itself has formally declared it.
Rajdeep Sardesai: The reason I am saying this is because there is a going belief now – which Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi quite openly said – that the road to Delhi leads through Bangalore. Do you believe in that sense that it’s a turning point? Does it propel you towards the Centre?
LK Advani: The road to Delhi was an appropriate phrase before 1998. We used to say the road to Delhi is through UP and etcetera, etcetera. Today it is going to be NDA’s return to Delhi. It’s not going to be the first time that we would be going to Delhi.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Sure, but in that sense what do you mean that it’s a turning point?
LK Advani: I meant it in a different way altogether, and that was when I look at the electoral history of independent India and where Jan Sangh and BJP have been placed in it.
I regarded 1989 as the turning point in the history of BJP as much as in 1984 when we were at our lowest point. We had then got only two seats in the Lok Sabha. And suddenly in 1989 when we made a big leap forward and got 86 seats and after that continuously kept growing and it became unstoppable until we reached 1998, formed a government and ruled for six years. Therefore, the turning point in our history was 1989 in terms of aggregate strength. But all our strength that was derived from ’89 to ’98 was from northern, western, central and eastern India but upto Orissa and Bihar.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So, this is the big breakthrough in the south. This geographic breakthrough that you see as a turning point. But are you saying that finally in a sense the BJP, and in its earlier avtaar the Jan Sangh, has shed the image of a party of Hindi, Hindu and the Hindustan?
LK Advani: In a way yes. This has been something that has been gnawing in the minds of strategists of BJP and Jan Sangh. So when for the first time we won four seats in the Karnataka Assembly in 1967 we were very happy. One of them was Hubli, and the uncle of the present MLA of Hubli became the then MLA.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So you moved from those four seats in ’67 to today’s situation when you are coming to power, what do you believe has transformed the BJP in Karnataka? Some believe it’s a regional party very much of Karnataka and that’s what in a sense has made it a party which can be in power in a state like Karnataka.
LK Advani: No, it has been the kind of national party that it has been elsewhere. And one must not forget that in 2004 even when we lost the Lok Sabha elections in the country, everyone expected us to win and we ourselves were hopeful. Even at that time it was only in Karnataka where the party got 18 out of 26 seats. It also became the largest party in the Assembly.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So what is the secret formula? Why do you believe in a state, which has been traditionally a Congress bastion, the BJP has done so well? There used to be a period when Indira Gandhi used to go to Chikmagalur to fight an election, where the Congress has even got 70 per cent of the vote.
LK Advani: From 1967 till 2008 the party has grown very systematically in Karnataka.
Rajdeep Sardesai: What you are saying is that there is a historical legacy to Karnataka. You believe it can spread beyond that to Andhra and other states or is it a limited geographical growth?
LK Advani: I do not regard all four southern states as identical. I confine this achievement in Karnataka… I am only emphasising that it is not only in 2008 that suddenly this has happened. It has been a systematic growth. As far as the other states are concerned let me point out a basic problem of all countries, which have adopted the first past-the-post electoral system. In that system once politics becomes polarised between two major parties it becomes very difficult for a third party to make an entry.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So a DMK versus an AIADMK in Tamil Nadu makes it difficult for a third party to enter.
LK Advani: Yes, even a party like the Congress has to align either with the DMK or the AIDMK. Similarly, in Kerala the two major polarised parties are two coalitions or in Bengal.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So in a sense you are saying the BJP has now emerged as one of the principle poles of Karnataka politics. So the Janata Party and the Congress were the principle poles through the 80s in Karnataka, now it’s clearly the BJP and the Congress.
LK Advani: That emergence is not now, even earlier…
Rajdeep Sardesai: But there is one feeling Mr Advani, you have got 110 seats out of 224. You are short of a majority and you need independent support to form a government. Are you worried about the stability of the Government to the extent that you will have to give these independents ministership, it may lead to political corruption and you may no longer be the party with a difference.
LK Advani: The one good thing is that not only we are 110 which means we have reached the halfway mark. The fact that both the Congress and the JDS put together are less than us. For quite sometime when I was watching TV even you were commenting on this.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Am glad you were watching us. But why not reach out to JDS for support just to strengthen your coalition.
LK Advani: It is not the case in the present background. There is no question of it at the moment.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Do you fear that one big question that has come in Karnataka is political morality. People believe that there has been widespread corruption in the state. One reason why the BJP has been voted in is that there is a belief that Deve Gowda had squandered his mandate. A lot of money has gone into the Karnataka elections. People were spending Rs 15-20 crore to become MLAs. Does that worry you that BJP’s image of a party with a difference will take a beating?
LK Advani: Rajdeepji you were mentioning about Karnataka but this is a matter that has been worrying me with respect to the whole country. It is not merely about Karnataka.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Mr Yeddyurappa was projected as a farmers’ leader while some said he is originally only a Lingayat leader but he has obviously gone beyond the Lingayat base in this election. Is that the future plan to have these strong regional leaders? In that sense it was a vote for a localised election, but are you going to interpret it as a national mandate?
LK Advani: I would not say that way. These are catch phrases… These days in several states regional parties have come up which are asserting themselves in a way as to make the national parties get worried. But this is not a regional party that way. The BJP in Karnataka has not grown as a regional party.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Let’s focus on the national picture. General Elections are eight or nine months away, would you accept that those elections will be fought in an entirely different manner as to what has happened in Karnataka? Therefore, it would be premature to get euphoric after Karnataka and believe that the NDA will come to power?
LK Advani: You should view the Karnataka elections as one in a series of elections since Bihar which Congress has been continuously losing. It’s not about one single case where we have won.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Why do you believe that’s happening?
LK Advani: It is because certain factors have come to dominate the national scene in a way as to influence the voter of every single state. While last time in 2004 it was mentioned always that the BJP lost because it was an aggregate of state elections. This time what I am observing is whether it is Bihar or at least the subsequent elections have all been influenced by inflation and price rise. Also they have been influenced by intense unhappiness of the farmer. It was about the Government’s failure to deal with problems of terrorism firmly.
Rajdeep Sardesai: You are saying that national issues are operating at the level of state elections. There would be others who would say that a General Election, as you said in 2004, is an aggregation of state elections. Would you agree that you need a stronger alliance? The UPA is a broader alliance and that is their advantage, if they have any at the moment, over the NDA.
LK Advani: It’s maybe a broader alliance but I would think that the UPA’s failure at the performance level is also because of the broader alliance not being homogenous, and it being more of an alliance prompted only by the negative factor that the BJP has to be kept out.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Isn’t there the fear then that you may repeat the mistake of 2004 by not getting in more allies. Don’t you need more allies like Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu and there are other potential allies too.
LK Advani: They will come. I am not against alliance partners. In fact one of the biggest advantages of the NDA was a very homogenous alliance except in the case of one or two where we had a problem.
Rajdeep Sardesai: You believe that Jayalalithaa would naturally gravitate towards the NDA?
LK Advani: I am not talking in any specific terms.
Rajdeep Sardesai: But you are hopeful of more allies?
LK Advani: Yes, yes. I am confident that we will have more allies.
Rajdeep Sardesai: The NDA, a year from now, will be a larger alliance than it is today?
LK Advani: I have no doubt about it.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Can you tell us in specific terms like maybe Mayawati?
LK Advani: I don’t think it would be fair to be talking about it when we are close to the elections. I think I have given you a broad approach.
Rajdeep Sardesai: The NDA will bring together those parties which see at the state level the Congress as their principle enemy?
LK Advani: That’s right.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Where do you see yourself in these eight-nine months? Is there a sense that you are getting that maybe now you are coming closer to power in general? And here I mean you, the party and the alliance.
LK Advani: I have no doubt about this. It’s not a question of feeling. I have no doubt that the manner in which the UPA has been conducting itself, the manner in which it is still unclear about so many things, the fact that they have become imprisoned in this anti-BJP mode – this detracts greatly from its ability to give good governance to the country. And therefore, the simple contrast between the way NDA functioned and the way UPA has functioned for these four years is going to make the average elector in this country vote for the NDA.
Rajdeep Sardesai: So is it about UPA versus NDA or is it LK Advani versus Sonia Gandhi?
LK Advani: No, it is about UPA versus NDA.
Rajdeep Sardesai: It is not about the personalities?
LK Advani: Personalities always do figure and therefore I said yesterday to another journalist that it was a big mistake on the part of the Congress party not to name its leader in Karnataka. And I do not know if it is going to have the same approach with respect to the coming Lok Sabha elections.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Do you think the Congress should have projected a leader, maybe an SM Krishna or anyone?
LK Advani: The day SM Krishna was brought back from the Governor’s post I had no doubt that they would do it. But they bungled badly and the reason for the bungling, which I have explained, is that these days political parties have become prisoners of the casteist psyche to such an extent that they do not see the wisdom of even naming a leader.
Rajdeep Sardesai: I must ask you this, a week is a long time in Indian politics. In the winter there are states where there could be anti-incumbency against you like Rajasthan which is witnessing Gurjar violence, Madhya Pradesh where you have changed Chief Ministers twice and you have got a state like Chhattisgarh which has seen Naxal violence. Do you fear that it is actually anti-incumbency? You have benefited in Karnataka because there was no anti-incumbency against the BJP. So it could happen to you in the winter and the momentum could shift again.
LK Advani: And therefore it is that Gujarat is an example where despite all this talk about anti-incumbency along with a vitriolic and vicious campaign against the Chief Minister what we were able to see was that there was no anti-incumbency against the Chief Minister. There was anti-incumbency against MLAs and we are cautious about it.
You asked me what I was thinking these days and I say that I am thinking of nothing else but Lok Sabha elections and the five Assembly elections that are due before it. I am planning entirely for that.
Rajdeep Sardesai: You are not worried that in Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje could face anti-incumbency?
LK Advani: It is not a problem of anti-incumbency there. There are other problems also and we will get over the ones that you mentioned just now.
Rajdeep Sardesai: You don’t see anti-incumbency as a problem that could burden the BJP?
LK Advani: No, anti-incumbency is a problem which after my decades of experience I have come to the conclusion that it is not necessarily against the government or the chief minister. It is more against the MLAs, MPs and to some extent some ministers. If you are able to deal with it properly then you overcome it.
Rajdeep Sardesai: My final question then to you is that we called this programme prime minister-in-waiting. Be honest sir, do you believe that the momentum that you have had over the last few months will really sustain you till March-April?
LK Advani: I don’t see the whole issue in terms of person, not even myself. I see it as an occasion and an opportunity for the NDA to return to power and continue the excellent work that it was doing from 1998 to 2004.
Rajdeep Sardesai: And you don’t see a khichdi coming in 2009 as many people see coming – Mayawati and smaller parties becoming the dominant force. You don’t see that happening?
LK Advani: I foresee once again an alliance coming into power. I am not thinking in terms of the BJP alone ruling the country, but I do not see how that khichdi…
The khichdi that we had for six years did not give us any problems. We were able to manage it very well.
Rajdeep Sardesai: We have seen remarkable micro-management by the BJP in Karnataka led by Arun Jaitley. He has almost become this master in election management, what’s the secret mantra? Is he going to be now your campaign manager for Lok Sabha also?
LK Advani: He is an excellent colleague, there is no doubt about it. We have other colleagues also and everyone has his own specialties. Arun, no doubt, is remarkable.
Rajdeep Sardesai: Mr Advani, thank you very much for talking to CNN-IBN.
LK Advani: Thank you.
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