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Apr 02, 2014 at 09:02pm IST

Gujarat poll tracker: BJP on a roll, to win 20-26 seats, Congress 0-4

The BJP is well ahead of the Congress in its PM nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar the BJP will sweep the Gujarat with 20-26 and Congress may end up with only 0-4. The others may win 0-2 seats in the state which has 26 Lok Sabha constituencies.

According to survey findings, the BJP is projected to get 55 per cent votes. The main rival Congress is expected to get 31 per cent of the votes. Surprisingly the AAP is likely to get 6 per cent and others may get 8 per cent of the votes.

Gujarat is witnessing a massive upper caste and OBC consolidation behind the BJP. Among the Upper castes (excluding Patels), the BJP has 73 per cent, Patels 79 per cent and OBCs 71 per cent support. Among the Dalits 70 per cent of them back the Congress and just 30 per cent back the BJP.

Among the Muslims, 80 per cent back the Congress and just 15 per cent back the BJP.

Survey findings show the Congress giving the BJP some fight in rural areas, but in urban areas its BJP all the way. In rural areas the BJP has 48 per cent votes and the Congress has 34 per cent votes. In urban areas the BJP has a whopping 71 per cent backing and the Congress has got just 24 per cent backing.

Region-wise break-up

In Saurashtra, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress. In South Gujarat too, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress. Only in Central Gujarat, the Congress is ahead of the BJP. In north Gujarat the BJP has established a small lead over the Congress.

Interestingly there is fairly high net satisfaction with the performance of the Central government in Gujarat (Net satisfaction is Satisfaction percentage minus dissatisfaction percentage).

+47 per cent respondents are happy with the state government and +33 per cent are satisfied with the UPA government at the Centre.

Modi leads PM race

In his home state, 46 per cent respondents want Narendra Modi to be the next PM. Just 15 per cent want Rahul Gandhi to be the next PM and 25 per cent respondents have no opinion.

One interesting factor, which is not good for Narendra Modi is most people agree with the AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal that the development in Gujarat has been only for corporates like Adani and Ambani. A total of 46 per cent respondents agree with this and 25 per cent disagree with this claim. 29 per cent of the respondents have no say.

The public opinion on the Gujarat government's claims on development also varies from people to people. 40 per cent respondents agree that there has been a lot of development in the last 10 years.

15 per cent people agree that while there has been development in last 10 years but not as much as the government is claiming. 23 per cent of the people claim that the development in last 10 years has benefited only a few people, not people like them. 12 per cent claim that the claims of good governance and development are all false. 10 per cent have no opinion on the subject.

Top 5 voting issues in Gujarat

Price rise - 38 per cent

Corruption - 12 per cent

Unemployment - 12 per cent

Development - 6 per cent

Supply of drinking water - 4 per cent