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Gujarat poll tracker: Modi-led BJP to win 20-25 seats, Congress 1-4

CNN-IBN
Jan 22, 2014 at 09:33pm IST

New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi looks unstoppable in his home state of Gujarat. The state has been a BJP bastion for the last two decades is likely to stay the same if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014.

The state sends 26 MPs to the Lok Sabha and as per the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, the BJP will win 20-25 seats, Congress 1-4 and others 0-2. In 2009, the BJP won 15 seats and the Congress 11 seats.

ALSO SEE Madhya Pradesh election tracker: BJP to win 23-27 seats, Congress 2-5

According to the findings of Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll, he has got the backing of 53 per cent voters in the state. The Congress is expected to get just 32 per cent votes. The new kid on the block AAP is likely to garner an impressive 7 per cent votes and others are expected to get 8 per cent votes.

But the interesting thing is a drop of 3 per cent votes for Modi in the last 6 months. When the first national tracker poll was conducted in June 2013, he had the backing of 56 per cent voters. Modi was anointed by the BJP as its PM candidate in September 2013.

ALSO SEE Maharashtra poll tracker: BJP-SS to win 25-33 seats, Congress-NCP 12-20

Huge support for Modi as PM

Almost half of the Gujarat voters want Modi as PM with 46 per cent backing him in his endeavour. Rahul Gandhi has got 16 per cent votes for the post of PM while 5 per cent people prefer Delhi Chief Minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.

ALSO SEE Chhattisgarh poll tracker: BJP to get 50 per cent votes, Congress 34

Anandiben Patel leads CM race

If Narendra Modi becomes the PM, senior minister in his Cabinet Anandiben Patel is the top choice to replace him as chief minister. She has got 12 per cent backing as against 8 per cent for the controversial Amit Shah.

Overall six out of 10 respondents have answered that Gujarat developed only under Modi or Gujarat's development was greater under Modi. Interestingly, one third of Muslim respondents, five out of 10 Adivasi (tribal) respondents and six out of 10 Dalit respondents also feel the same. Overall 30 per cent feel that Modi alone is responsible for the development of Gujarat.

There is a high level of satisfaction with the government among the people with 71 per cent respondents say that they are happy under Modi rule. Only 21 per cent respondents are unhappy with Modi's government.

Over two thirds of respondents are also happy with Modi's performance as the chief minister. An overwhelming 70 per cent of the respondents have answered that they are happy with him as CM. Only 22 per cent answered that they are unhappy with him as CM.

Pro-Modi mood is also on the rise in Gujarat with 54 per cent respondents want to give more chance to the BJP in the state, if assembly elections are held in January 2014. Just 18 per cent don't want the BJP to retain power in the state.

Like most part of India, the UPA government at the Centre is very unpopular in Gujarat. While 47 per cent respondents are unhappy with it, only 43 per cent feel that they are happy with it.

Moreover, 38 per cent respondents have answered that they are unhappy with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's performance. Although 48 per cent feel that he is good but the satisfaction with the PM was 54 per cent just 6 months ago.

In another setback for the UPA, 45 per cent respondents have answered that the present government at the Centre should not get another chance. Only 33 per cent respondents are backing it.

AAP impact in Gujarat

Although 58 per cent respondents have heard of AAP only 38 per cent want the party to contest from their Lok Sabha seats. However, only 19 per cent are inclined to vote for the AAP.

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