New Delhi: Narendra Modi will continue to lord over Gujarat for the next five years as he is all set to score a hat-trick of electoral victories and lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, Modi will steamroll the opposition and become the chief minister of Gujarat once again.

The post-poll survey of 3755 persons at 239 locations in 60 constituencies in Gujarat shows that Modi is going to better the 2002 and 2007 results and win by a very handsome margin. While the BJP will have a vote percentage of 48, the party is going to win 129-141 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly) with the Congress trailing far behind with 36 per cent of the votes and its worst show in the state with only 37 to 45 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007). The other smaller parties would garner 16 per cent of the votes and end up with 4 to 10 seats (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

What is surprising that even though the BJP is losing one per cent of the votes as compared to the 2007 elections, the party is set to win at least 12 seats more than last time. The Congress's votes too is down two per cent from the 2007 figure and the other smaller parties are also losing four per cent votes all of which is being cornered by Keshubahi Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which didn't exist in 2007.

Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him.

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him. In fact, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. Despite Keshubhai Patel's GPP being strong in the Leuva Patel-dominated Saurashtra, it is the BJP which is getting the maximum votes there. In North Gujarat, the BJP gets 54 per cent of the votes and it is only Central Gujarat where the Congress comes within touching distance of its political opponent.

In Saurashtra and Kutch (54 seats), the BJP is ahead of the Congress with the GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of both the national parties. IN North Gujarat (53) the BJP is comfortably ahead of the Congress while in Central Gujarat (40) even as the BJP leads but there is close contest in some regions. In South Gujarat (35), too, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress.

In the race for the chief minister, too, Modi faces no opposition as 46 per cent of the voters prefer him with his closest rival Shankersinh Vaghela getting just six per cent of votes. The 2012 figure is the highest rating that Modi has enjoyed.

The most important election issues were price rise, electricity/water/road, farmers' issues/problems, employment, corruption, Gujarat's development and Gujarat's leadership in that order. Not surprisingly the BJP is considered to be the best suited to deal tackles the problems.

But Modi's leadership is not a big issue with 55 per cent of the voters saying they would have backed the BJP even if Modi had not been the party leader, which is a fall of six per cent from the 2007 figure of 61 per cent.

GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS - PHASES I & II TOGETHER

Gujarat post poll projections
Party	Votes	Seats
BJP	48%	129-141
INC	36%	37-45
OTH	16%	4-10

Methodology
Key facts about the Survey
Time period when survey was conducted	13-18 Dec 2012
Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held	60
Number of Polling Stations where survey was held	239
Number of respondents targeted	7200
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)	3755

Sample profile
Social Background	Share in total population/electorate	Share in Post Poll survey sample
Women	48	47
Urban	38	35
SC	7	8
ST	15	15
Hindu	89	92
Muslim	9	6

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; Figures for Urban, SC, ST, Hindu, and Muslim share in total population are based on Census 2001.

Estimated vote-shares
Party	2007 Actual Result	2012 Post Poll Estimate	Estimated Change since 2007
BJP	49	48	-1
Congress	38	36	-2
GPP	-	7	+7
Others	13	9	-4

Note: All figures are in per cent; GPP or Gujarat Parivartan Party did not exist in 2007

Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll survey
Party	Oct 2012 Pre Poll Estimate	Dec 2012 Post Poll Estimate	Change since Pre poll
BJP	50	48	-2
Congress	36	36	0
GPP	3	7	+4
Others	11	9	-2

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 13 Dec and 18 Dec 2012.

Gap between BJP and Congress
Party	1995	1998	2002	2007	Dec 2012 (Estimate)
BJP	43	45	50	49	48
Congress	33	35	39	38	36
Difference	10 pts.	10 pts.	11 pts.	11 pts.	12 pts.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others

Opinion on re electing the incumbent government
Should the BJP Govt. get another chance?	2007BJP govt.	Dec 2012BJP govt
Yes	48	49
No	36	39
Can't say/No opinion	16	15

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in Post Poll survey of 2007.

Vote share by region
Party	Saurashtra	North Gujarat	Central Gujarat	South Gujarat
BJP	44(-4)	54(+2)	48(+3)	45(-6)
INC	34(-3)	35(-2)	43(+2)	33(-4)
Others	22(+7)	11(0)	9(-5)	22(+10)

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Regional pattern
REGIONAL TRENDPatelsKolis
Saurashtra & Kutch (54)	BJP ahead of Congress. GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of Congress and BJP
North Gujarat (53)	BJP comfortably ahead of Congress.
Central Gujarat (40)	BJP ahead of Congress but contest close in some parts.
South Gujarat (35)	BJP way ahead of Congress.

Pre poll and post poll comparison of 'Preference for Chief Minister'
Chief Minister preference	Pre PollOct 2012	Post PollDec 2012
Narendra Modi	49	46
Keshubhai Patel	8	5
Shankersinh Vaghela	6	9
Shaktisinh Gohil	4	2
Arjun Modhwadia	3	3

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Preference for Chief Minister over the years
Years	PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER
Years	Modi	Vaghela	Keshubhai
2002	37	16	6
2004	31	13	6
2007	42	8	3
2009	45	7	4
2012	46	9	5

All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures for 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012 are from Post Poll Surveys; Figures for 2002 are from a Pre Poll Survey.

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference highest among...
Upper Castes	59
College and above	57
Upto 25 Years of age	53

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference lowest among...
Muslims	17
Upto Primary	40
56 and above	43

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Pre poll and post poll comparison of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Governments' performance	Pre PollOct 2012	Post Poll Dec 2012
Satisfied	71	60
Dissatisfied	19	31
Can't say	10	9

Note: All figures are in per cent

Comparison by states of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Assessment of 2012 Govts	Gujarat 2012	Punjab 2012	Assam 2011	Bihar 2010
Satisfied	60	55	64	77
Dissatisfied	31	38	25	19

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Comparison by states of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Assessment of 2012 Govts	Maharashtra 2009	MP 2008	Chhattisgarh 2008	Delhi 2008
Satisfied	61	77	75	65
Dissatisfied	32	14	12	29

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Important issues for the voters in 2012
Most important election issue	All	Women
Price rise	28	31
Electricity/Water/Road problems	18	19
Farmers' issues/problems	13	12
Employment	11	9
Corruption	9	8
Gujarat's development	9	9
Gujarat's leadership	3	3

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Preference of party for dealing with different issues
Party best for...	Cong	BJP	Both
For Gujarat's development	26	48	6
For dealing with terrorism	22	39	12
For India's development	27	38	130

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or had no opinion

Party comparison of important consideration while voting
What mattered more while voting - Party or Candidate?	All	BJP voters	Cong voters	GPP voters
Party	53	57	59	27
Candidate	37	37	32	53
Can't say	10	6	9	20

Note: All figures are in per cent

Breakdown of reasons for preferring party over candidate
How did those who voted for Party and not candidate vote...	All	BJP voters	Cong voters	GPP voters
Party	40	47	31	50
Candidate	25	23	28	34
Can't say	31	27	35	203

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Breakdown of reasons for preferring candidate over party
How did those who voted for Candidate and not party vote...	All	Patels	Kshatriyas
Voted for Candidate's Reputation	10	5	11
Voted for Candidate's Caste/community	13	32	5
Voted for Candidate's work	65	49	75
Voted for Candidate because of family ties	4	5	6

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Importance of Narendra Modi's leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP's leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did?	2007	2012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did	61	55
No, would have voted differently	10	17
Can't say	29	28

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

Importance of Narendra Modi's leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP's leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did?	BJP voters		Cong voters		Others' voters
	2007	2012	2007	2012	2007	2012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did	76	66	62	51	44	32
No, would have voted differently	9	19	12	17	19	14
	15	15	26	32	37	54

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.