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Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

CNN-IBN
Dec 19, 2012 at 08:15pm IST

New Delhi: Narendra Modi will continue to lord over Gujarat for the next five years as he is all set to score a hat-trick of electoral victories and lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, Modi will steamroll the opposition and become the chief minister of Gujarat once again.

The post-poll survey of 3755 persons at 239 locations in 60 constituencies in Gujarat shows that Modi is going to better the 2002 and 2007 results and win by a very handsome margin. While the BJP will have a vote percentage of 48, the party is going to win 129-141 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly) with the Congress trailing far behind with 36 per cent of the votes and its worst show in the state with only 37 to 45 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007). The other smaller parties would garner 16 per cent of the votes and end up with 4 to 10 seats (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

What is surprising that even though the BJP is losing one per cent of the votes as compared to the 2007 elections, the party is set to win at least 12 seats more than last time. The Congress's votes too is down two per cent from the 2007 figure and the other smaller parties are also losing four per cent votes all of which is being cornered by Keshubahi Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which didn't exist in 2007.

Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him.

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him. In fact, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. Despite Keshubhai Patel's GPP being strong in the Leuva Patel-dominated Saurashtra, it is the BJP which is getting the maximum votes there. In North Gujarat, the BJP gets 54 per cent of the votes and it is only Central Gujarat where the Congress comes within touching distance of its political opponent.

In Saurashtra and Kutch (54 seats), the BJP is ahead of the Congress with the GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of both the national parties. IN North Gujarat (53) the BJP is comfortably ahead of the Congress while in Central Gujarat (40) even as the BJP leads but there is close contest in some regions. In South Gujarat (35), too, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress.

In the race for the chief minister, too, Modi faces no opposition as 46 per cent of the voters prefer him with his closest rival Shankersinh Vaghela getting just six per cent of votes. The 2012 figure is the highest rating that Modi has enjoyed.

The most important election issues were price rise, electricity/water/road, farmers' issues/problems, employment, corruption, Gujarat's development and Gujarat's leadership in that order. Not surprisingly the BJP is considered to be the best suited to deal tackles the problems.

But Modi's leadership is not a big issue with 55 per cent of the voters saying they would have backed the BJP even if Modi had not been the party leader, which is a fall of six per cent from the 2007 figure of 61 per cent.

GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS - PHASES I & II TOGETHER

Gujarat post poll projections
Party Votes Seats
BJP 48% 129-141
INC 36% 37-45
OTH 16% 4-10
Methodology
Key facts about the Survey
Time period when survey was conducted13-18 Dec 2012
Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held 60
Number of Polling Stations where survey was held 239
Number of respondents targeted 7200
Total respondents achieved (Sample size) 3755
Sample profile
Social Background Share in total population/electorate Share in Post Poll survey sample
Women 48 47
Urban 38 35
SC 7 8
ST 15 15
Hindu 89 92
Muslim 9 6

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; Figures for Urban, SC, ST, Hindu, and Muslim share in total population are based on Census 2001.

Estimated vote-shares
Party 2007 Actual Result 2012 Post Poll Estimate Estimated Change since 2007
BJP 49 48 -1
Congress 38 36 -2
GPP - 7 +7
Others 13 9 -4

Note: All figures are in per cent; GPP or Gujarat Parivartan Party did not exist in 2007

Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll survey
Party Oct 2012 Pre Poll Estimate Dec 2012 Post Poll Estimate Change since Pre poll
BJP 50 48 -2
Congress 36 36 0
GPP 3 7 +4
Others 11 9 -2

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 13 Dec and 18 Dec 2012.

Gap between BJP and Congress
Party 1995 1998 2002 2007 Dec 2012 (Estimate)
BJP 43 45 50 49 48
Congress 33 35 39 38 36
Difference 10 pts. 10 pts. 11 pts. 11 pts. 12 pts.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others

Opinion on re electing the incumbent government
Should the BJP Govt. get another chance? 2007BJP govt. Dec 2012BJP govt
Yes 48 49
No 36 39
Can't say/No opinion 16 15

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in Post Poll survey of 2007.

Vote share by region
Party Saurashtra North Gujarat Central Gujarat South Gujarat
BJP 44(-4) 54(+2) 48(+3) 45(-6)
INC 34(-3) 35(-2) 43(+2) 33(-4)
Others 22(+7) 11(0) 9(-5) 22(+10)

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Regional pattern
REGIONAL TRENDPatelsKolis
Saurashtra & Kutch (54) BJP ahead of Congress. GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of Congress and BJP
North Gujarat (53) BJP comfortably ahead of Congress.
Central Gujarat (40) BJP ahead of Congress but contest close in some parts.
South Gujarat (35) BJP way ahead of Congress.

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Pre poll and post poll comparison of 'Preference for Chief Minister'
Chief Minister preference Pre PollOct 2012 Post PollDec 2012
Narendra Modi 49 46
Keshubhai Patel 8 5
Shankersinh Vaghela 6 9
Shaktisinh Gohil 4 2
Arjun Modhwadia 3 3

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Preference for Chief Minister over the years
Years PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER
Modi Vaghela Keshubhai
2002 37 16 6
2004 31 13 6
2007 42 8 3
2009 45 7 4
2012 46 9 5

All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures for 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012 are from Post Poll Surveys; Figures for 2002 are from a Pre Poll Survey.

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference highest among...  
Upper Castes 59
College and above 57
Upto 25 Years of age 53

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Social background of preference for Modi as Chief Minister
Modi as CM preference lowest among...  
Muslims 17
Upto Primary 40
56 and above 43

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Pre poll and post poll comparison of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Governments' performance Pre PollOct 2012 Post Poll Dec 2012
Satisfied 71 60
Dissatisfied 19 31
Can't say 10 9

Note: All figures are in per cent

Comparison by states of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Assessment of 2012 Govts Gujarat 2012 Punjab 2012 Assam 2011 Bihar 2010
Satisfied 60 55 64 77
Dissatisfied 31 38 25 19

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Comparison by states of 'satisfaction with the incumbent government'
Assessment of 2012 Govts Maharashtra 2009 MP 2008 Chhattisgarh 2008 Delhi 2008
Satisfied 61 77 75 65
Dissatisfied 32 14 12 29

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Important issues for the voters in 2012
Most important election issue All Women
Price rise 28 31
Electricity/Water/Road problems 18 19
Farmers' issues/problems 13 12
Employment 11 9
Corruption 9 8
Gujarat's development 9 9
Gujarat's leadership 3 3

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Preference of party for dealing with different issues
Party best for... Cong BJP Both
For Gujarat's development 26 48 6
For dealing with terrorism 22 39 12
For India's development 27 38 130

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or had no opinion

Party comparison of important consideration while voting
What mattered more while voting - Party or Candidate? All BJP voters Cong voters GPP voters
Party 53 57 59 27
Candidate 37 37 32 53
Can't say 10 6 9 20

Note: All figures are in per cent

Breakdown of reasons for preferring party over candidate
How did those who voted for Party and not candidate vote... All BJP voters Cong voters GPP voters
Party 40 47 31 50
Candidate 25 23 28 34
Can't say 31 27 35 203

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Breakdown of reasons for preferring candidate over party
How did those who voted for Candidate and not party vote... All Patels Kshatriyas
Voted for Candidate's Reputation 10 5 11
Voted for Candidate's Caste/community 13 32 5
Voted for Candidate's work 65 49 75
Voted for Candidate because of family ties 4 5 6

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Importance of Narendra Modi's leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP's leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did? 2007 2012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did 61 55
No, would have voted differently 10 17
Can't say 29 28

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

Importance of Narendra Modi's leadership
If Narendra Modi had not been BJP's leader in this election then would you have voted the way you did? BJP voters Cong voters Others' voters
2007 2012 2007 2012 2007 2012
Yes, would have still voted the way I did 76 66 62 51 44 32
No, would have voted differently 9 19 12 17 19 14
  15 15 26 32 37 54

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY

Castes and community voting preference
  Cong BJP Others
Upper caste 22 (-4) 60(-9) 18(+13)
Patels 10(-11) 61(-10) 30(+21)
Kshatriya 40(+1) 55(+8) 5(-9)
Koli 36(-16) 54(+12) 10(+4)
Other OBC 28(-10) 56(+2) 16(+8)
SC 61(+5) 25(-9) 14(+4)
ST 43(+10) 33(-5) 24(-5)
Muslims 69(+2) 21(-1) 10(-1)
Others 21(-5) 70(+9) 9(-4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference of Patels
Patels BJP Cong GPP Others
Karwa Patel 80(-5) 6(-2) 6(+6) 8(+1)
Leuva Patel 52(-3) 12(-22) 32(+32) 4(-7)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by age group
Age group Cong BJP Others
18-25 years 33(-7) 52(+3) 15(+4)
26-35 years 37(-1) 48(-1) 15(+2)
36-45 years 36(-3) 48(+2) 16(+1)
46-55 years 34(-1) 47(-7) 19(+8)
56+ yearss 37(-1) 45(-3) 17(+4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by educational background
Education Cong BJP Others
Non literate 42(+2) 45(+3) 13(-5)
Up to primary 40(-1) 43(-2) 17(+3)
Up to matric 30(-7) 53(+1) 17(+6)
College educated 24(-9) 56(-3) 20(+12)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by gender
Gender Cong BJP Others
Men 35(-2) 49(-1) 16(+2)
Women 37(-2) 47(-2) 16(+4)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference by locality
Locality Cong BJP Others
Rural 37(-3) 47(+1) 16(+2)
Urban 33(-1) 49(-9) 18(+10)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Voting preference of RSS-VHP sympathizers
Vote preference of RSS-VHP 'sympathizers' 2007 2012
BJP 71 61
Cong 25 26
Others 4 13

Note: All figures are in per cent; 'sympathizers' here are those respondents who said 'Yes' to the question 'Do you participate in any RSS or VHP activities/programmes?

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