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Dec 19, 2012 at 04:39pm IST

Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP way ahead of Congress

New Delhi: Politics in Gujarat has been synonymous with Narendra Modi for over one decade. Modi has not only towered over his rivals in the Congress but also over his party colleagues. The post-poll survey conducted in Gujarat by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week shows that the BJP under Modi's leadership is once again set to trounce the Congress and give the Gujarat Chief Minister a hat-trick of electoral victories.

The survey is restricted to just the first phase of polling which took place on December 13 in 87 seats out of the 182. The seat projection by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, shows that BJP far ahead with 53-63 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly). The Congress will trail far behind with only 19-27 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007) with other smaller parties are likely to win three to nine seats 9 (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

Even the vote percentage show a similar pattern with the BJP set to garner 45 per cent, the Congress 33 per cent and others could get the remaining 22. Among the others former chief minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) is likely to corner 12 per cent of the votes. Keshubhai's party is strong in the 48 seats of Saurashtra, which is dominated by Leuva Patels who have been not very happy with the Modi regime.

The survey figures also include 35 seats in South Gujarat and four seats of North Gujarat. The findings reveal that BJP would remain the single largest party and GPP could finish with a double digit vote share. During the campaign, there was a marginal shift towards the Congress and the GPP and a slight decline in the vote share of the BJP during the campaign period.

A sizeable proportion of voters seem to have taken their voting decision a few days before polling or during campaign as compared to previous years. This could partly explain the increase in the Congress and the GPP's vote share during the campaign period.

Almost 44 per cent of voters in the first phase want the current BJP government to get another chance. This is a seven percentage point drop from the pre-poll figures of 51 per cent. Voters in Saurashtra, which is Modi baiter and GPP leader Keshubhai's bastion, are almost equally divided on their opinion on re-electing the incumbent BJP government.

But the survey also shows that Narendra Modi is the overwhelming choice for the chief ministers post with 41 voters backing him while the second spot of a tie between Keshubhai and Shankersinh Vaghela with both getting eight per cent votes. Among the Patels Narendra Modi has an even higher rating at 43 per cent while Keshubhai is far behind with 34.

The one worrying factor for Modi is that the satisfaction among voters with the work done by the BJP government seems to have dipped over the past few months. Even though the Patels have shifted away from the BJP their satisfaction with the work done by the government remains extremely high.

Overall, price rise and Bijli-Sadak-Paani (electricity-roads-water) seem to be the most important election issue for the respondents. In Saurashtra, however, farmer's issues and problems seem to be more important than price rise. On the other hand, in South Gujarat, almost one third of the respondents consider price rise as the most important issue in these elections.

For both the BJP and Congress voters the party seemed to matter more than the candidate, while a large proportion of the GPP voters put more importance on the candidate. Party's leadership mattered most for the voters of all three major parties and even those who said that they voted for party, voted largely for the party leadership. Overall, those who paid more attention to the candidate than the party largely voted on the basis of the work done by the candidate. However, for the Patels, the candidate's caste/community was another important consideration.

It appears that the BJP is leading among Upper Castes, Kshatriyas, Kolis and other OBCs. GPP seems to be making inroads into the Patel social base of both BJP and Congress. The Congress seems to be maintaining its hold over SC, ST and Muslim voters. The GPP seems to be making inroads into the Leave Patel vote bank of both the BJP and the Congress. There is a possibility that the BJP could lose some of its traditional Karwa Patel vote bank to the GPP.

GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS - PHASE 1

Methodology for Phase 1
Key facts about the Survey
Time period when survey was conducted13-14 Dec 2012
Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held29
Number of Polling Stations where survey was held120
Number of respondents targeted3600
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)1805
Estimated vote-shares for Phase I seats

Note: All figures are in per cent; all 35 seats of South Gujarat, all 48 seats of Saurashtra, and four seats of North Gujarat went to the polls in Phase I; figures reported here are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

BJP would most likely remain the single largest party and GPP could finish with a double digit vote share. High gap between the vote shares of BJP and the Congress is likely.

Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll survey in Phase 1 seats
PartyFOR PHASE I ONLY
Oct 2012 Pre PollPhase 1 Dec 2012 Post Poll Phase I Change since Pre poll
BJP 48 45 -3
Cong 32 33 +1
GPP 8 12 +4
Others 12 10 -2

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures reported here are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey in randomly sampled Phase I seats was conducted between 13 Dec and 14 Dec 2012.

During the campaign, there was a marginal shift towards the Congress and the GPP. There was a slight decline in the vote share of the BJP during the campaign period.

Time of voting decision
When did you decide whom to vote for? Phase I 2012 2007 2002
Few days before polling or the day of polling 33 18 31
During campaign 23 30 21
Before campaign started 34 42 40

All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2012 Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats. Other figures are from previously conducted post poll surveys

A sizeable proportion of voters seem to have taken their voting decision a few days before polling or during campaign as compared to previous years. This could partly explain the increase in the Congress and the GPP's vote share during the campaign period.

Pre and Post Poll comparison of 'opinion on reelecting the incumbent government;
Should the current BJP Govt. in Gujarat get another chance?FOR PHASE I ONLY
Pre Poll Post Poll I
Yes 51 44
No 30 39
Can't say/No opinion 19 17

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

The number of voters willing to reelect the incumbent BJP government seems to have declined over the last few months.

Opinion of voters in Saurasthra on reelecting the incumbent government
Should the current BJP Govt. in Gujarat get another chance? All Saurashtra
Yes 44 45
No 39 42
Can't say/No opinion 17 13

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Voters in Saurashtra are almost equally divided on their opinion on reelecting the incumbent BJP government.

Pre and Post Poll comparison of 'preference for chief minister'
Chief Minister preference 2012FOR PHASE I ONLY
Pre Poll Post Poll
Narendra Modi 49 41
Keshubhai Patel 11 8
Shankersinh Vaghela 3 8
Shaktisinh Gohil 5 4
Arjun Modhwadia 3 3

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Preference for Narendra Modi as Chief Minister seems to have dipped a little during the campaign period.

Preference for Chief Minister among the Patels
Chief Minister preference 2012 Patels
Narendra Modi 43
Keshubhai Patel 34
Shankersinh Vaghela 4
Shaktisinh Gohil 1

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

While Narendra Modi continues to be most popular even amongst the Patels, Keshubhai Patel is also strongly preferred as Chief Minister by a sizable proportion of Patel voters.

Pre and Post Poll comparison of assessment of 'government's performance'
Assessment of BJP Government's performanceFOR PHASE I ONLY
Pre Poll Post Poll
Satisfied 69 58
Dissatisfied 20 31
Can't say 11 11

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Satisfaction among voters with the work done by the BJP government seems to have dipped over the past few months.

Caste comparison of assessment of 'government's performance'
Assessment of BJP Governments' performance Patels Kolis
Satisfied 66 58
Dissatisfied 28 20
Can't say 6 22

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Though the Patels have shifted away from the BJP, their satisfaction with the work done by the government remains extremely high.

Regional comparison of important election issues.
Most important election issueFOR PHASE I ONLY
All Saurashtra South Gujarat
Price rise 24 16 30
Electricity/Water/Road problems 21 27 16
Farmers' issues/problems 16 18 14
Corruption 10 9 9
Employment 9 9 10
Gujarat's development 8 8 7
Gujarat's leadership 3 3 2

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats. All 35 seats of South Gujarat and all 48 seats of Saurashtra went to the polls in Phase I.

Overall, price rise and Bijli-Sadak-Paani seem to be the most important election issue for the respondents. In Saurashtra, however, farme's issues and problems seem to be more important than price rise. On the other hand, in South Gujarat, almost one third of the respondents consider price rise as the most important issue in these elections.

Party wise comparison of important consideration while voting
What mattered more while voting - Party or Candidate?FOR PHASE I ONLY
All BJP voters Cong voters GPP voters
Party 50 55 62 25
Candidate 41 39 31 55
Can't say 9 6 7 20

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

For both BJP and Congress voters the party seemed to matter more than the candidate, while a large proportion of the GPP voters put more importance on the candidate.

Breakdown of reasons for voting for party over other considerations
How did those who voted for Party and not candidate vote...FOR PHASE I ONLY
All BJP voters Cong voters GPP voters
Voted for Party's Leadership 41 42 39 48
Voted for Party's ideology 26 28 25 34
Voted because generally like Party 29 27 33 14

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Party's leadership mattered most for the voters of all three major parties. Even those who said that they voted for party, voted largely for the party leadership.

Breakdown of reasons for voting for candidate over other considerations.
How did those who voted for Candidate and not party vote...FOR PHASE I ONLY
All Patels Kolis
Voted for Candidate's Reputation 9 5 14
Voted for Candidate's Caste/community 19 39 7
Voted for Candidate's work 59 44 59
Voted for Candidate because of family ties 4 3 4

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Overall, those who paid more attention to the candidate than the party largely voted on the basis of the work done by the candidate. However, for the Patels, the candidate's caste/community was another important consideration.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY FOR PHASE 1

Castes and community voting preferences
Caste/communityFOR PHASE I ONLY
Cong BJP Others
Upper Caste 25 55 20
Patels 12 49 39
Kshatriya 35 58 7
Koli 38 52 10
Other OBC 27 49 24
SC 57 31 12
ST 42 31 27
Muslims 68 23 9
Others 21 63 16

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

It appears that, BJP is leading among Upper Castes, Kshatriyas, Kolis and other OBCs. GPP seems to be making inroads into the Patel social base of both BJP and Congress. Congress seems to be maintaining its hold over SC, ST and Muslim voters.

Patel vote
PatelsFOR PHASE I ONLY
Cong BJP GPP Others
Karwa Patel 7 69 24 0
Leuva Patel 13 46 40 1

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

The GPP seems to be making inroads into the Leuva Patel vote bank of both the BJP and the Congress. There is a possibility that the BJP could lose some of its traditional Karwa Patel vote bank to the GPP.

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