New Delhi: The post-poll survey conducted in Himachal Pradesh by CSDS for CNN-IBN and The Week a few days after the state went to elections shows that the two main parties - ruling BJP and Congress - are involved in a dead heat, with no clarity on who will form the next government in the state. The survey conducted from November 7 to 14 in 32 Assembly constituencies of the state reveals that while the Congress has a slight edge over the BJP in terms of vote percentage, the same cannot be said when it comes to the seats.

The seat forecast done by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, shows that both the Congress and the BJP are likely to win identical number of seats in the 68-member Assembly. According to the survey the state will witness a hung Assembly, giving the smaller parties and Independents an important say on who will form the next government.

While the Congress is likely to win 29 to 35 seats (the party had won 23 in 2007), the BJP may also end up with a similar tally of 29-35 (the party had won 41 in 2007). Other smaller parties are expected to get 2-6 seats (others had won four, which included three Independents and one by the BSP in 2007).

Himachal Pradesh post-poll survey: BJP, Cong in dead heat

Congress has a slight edge over BJP in terms of vote percentage, but the same cannot be said when it comes to the seats.

As the state heads for a hung Assembly, the vote percentage shows that Congress gaining two percentage points over its 2007 figures. The party had 39 per cent votes in 2007 which has climbed to 41 in 2012 even as the BJP has slipped from 44 per cent in 2007 to 40. Smaller parties have also gained two percentage points and are likely to poll about 19 per cent of the votes.

As the result day arrives, the Congress versus the BJP battle is Himachal Pradesh's closest race in the last three decades. In the Assembly elections since 1982, the winner has maintained at least a five percentage point lead over its rival, but 2012 is too close to call.

There seems to be a regional divide too as East Himachal wants the BJP government to go, the western part of the wants it to return back to power. East Himachal consists of the districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur while West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur.

But within East and West of the state also there seem to be district level variations with the Congress leading in the East Himachal (34 seats) but a close race is expected in Solan, Sirmaur, and Mandi districts. In West Himachal (34), the BJP leads overall but the Congress is expected to give it a tough fight in Kangra, Chamba, and Una districts.

Congress leader Virbhadra Singh is the most preferred choice for the chief minister's post while incumbent Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar are too far behind. While 41 per cent of the voters prefer Virbhadra Singh as the next chief minister, Dhumal has the support of 35 per cent while Shanta Kumar gets the backing of just five per cent.

While the satisfaction with the BJP government is high yet it offers no guarantee for re-election because in 2007 too satisfaction with the Congress government performance was also high and yet it was voted out. The main election issues were price rise, condition of roads, corruption, employment, cap on subsidised LPG cylinders, water problem followed by wages, salaries and pension.

HIMACHAL PRADESH POST POLL SURVEY 2012

Methodology
Key facts about the Survey
Time period when survey was conducted	7-14 Nov 2012
Number of Assembly Constituencies where survey was held	32
Number of Polling Stations where survey was held	128
Number of respondents targeted	3840
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)	2328

Sample Profile
Social Background	Share in total population/electorate	Share in Post Poll survey sample
Women	48	47
Urban	10	8
SC	25	24
ST	4	5
Hindu	95	95

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; figures for Urban are from Census 2011 Provisional Population Totals; figures for share of SC, ST, and Hindu in total population of Himachal Pradesh are from Census 2001.

CONGRESS HAS AN EDGE IN A BATTLE THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY

Estimated vote-shares - Neck and neck between Cong and BJP
Party	2007 Actual Result	2012 Post Poll Estimate	Change since 2007
Cong	39	41	+2
BJP	44	40	-4
Others	17	19	+2

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; others include other parties and independents.

Change in estimated vote-shares from Pre Poll survey to Post Poll survey
Party	Oct 2012 Pre Poll Estimate	Nov 2012 Post Poll Estimate	Change since Pre poll
Cong	40	41	+1
BJP	41	40	-1
Others	19	19	0

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 14 Oct and 21 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 7 Nov and 14 Nov 2012. Pre Poll survey was conducted in 30 Assembly seats; Post Poll survey was conducted in the same 30 Assembly seats (out of which in 27 seats the same respondents were interviewed) and 2 additional seats.

Cong vs BJP - Himachal's closest race of last three decades expected
Party	Vote shares in Assembly elections over the years
Party	1982	1985	1990	1993	1998	2003	2007	2012 (Est)
BJP	43	55	37	49	44	41	39	41
Cong	35	31	42	36	39	35	44	40
Diff.	8 pts.	24 pts.	5 pts.	13 pts.	5 pts.	6 pts.	5 pts.	1 pt.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others; these are vote share figures for all Assembly elections held in Himachal Pradesh since 1982; Himachal has had a history of changing governments at every election after 1985.

Gap between Pro and Anti incumbency sentiments narrower compared to Pre Poll
Should the BJP Govt. get another chance?	Oct 2012 Pre Poll	Nov 2012 Post Poll
Yes	40	45
No	34	42
No opinion	26	13

Note: All figures are in per cent.

There seems to be a regional divide: East Himachal wants BJP govt. to go, West wants it to return
Should the BJP Govt. get another chance?	East Himachal	West Himachal
Yes	39	51
No	47	38
No opinion	14	11

Note: All figures are in per cent; East Himachal consists of districts of Lahaul Spiti, Kullu, Mandi, Solan, Sirmaur, Shimla and Kinnaur. West Himachal consists of the districts of Chamba, Kangra, Hamirpur, Una, and Bilaspur.

But within East and West, there also seem to be district level variations
East Himachal (34)	Cong leads overall but close races expected in Solan, Sirmaur, and Mandi districts.
West Himachal (34)	BJP leads overall but close races expected in Kangra, Chamba, and Una districts.

Note: Figure in brackets indicates number of seats in the region.

Virbhadra takes the lead, more popular than Dhumal and Shanta combined
Chief Minister Preference	Oct 2012 Pre Poll	Nov 2012 Post Poll
Prem Kumar Dhumal	34	35
Virbhadra Singh	33	41
Shanta Kumar	2	5
Others from BJP	1	1
Others from Congress	1	2
Others	5	2
Can’t say/No opinion	24	14

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Virbhadra's popularity highest among SCs and Men; Dhumal does best among Rajputs
Chief Minister Preference	All	SCs	Rajputs	Men	Women
Prem Kumar Dhumal	35	31	40	33	38
Virbhadra Singh	41	46	38	44	38

Note: All figures are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion.

Dhumal+Shanta combination had worked for BJP in ‘07, but Shanta has declined ever since
Years	PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER
Years	Dhumal	Virbhadra	Shanta
2003	29	30	15
2007	25	40	23
2012	35	41	5

Note: All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2003 based on a Pre Poll Survey and figures for 2007 and 2012 are based on Post Poll surveys.

Best Chief Minister in the history of Himachal - Virbhadra on top here as well.
Himachal's best ever CM	All
Virbhadra Singh	36
Prem Kumar Dhumal	27
Shanta Kumar	15
Thakur Ram Lal	6
Yashwant Parmar	3
Can’t say/No opinion	13

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Overall Candidates mattered as much as Party while voting; Cong voters voted more on Party basis than BJP voters.
What mattered more while voting - Party or Candidate?	All	Cong voters	BJP voters
Party	48	61	53
Candidate	48	36	42
Can't say	4	3	5

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Satisfaction with BJP govt. high yet it offers no guarantee for re-election. That's because in 2007 satisfaction with Cong govt.'s performance was also high and yet it was voted out.
Satisfaction with State govt.	BJP govt. 2012	Cong govt. 2007
Satisfied	64	67
Dissatisfied	29	19
Can’t say	7	14

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures for 2007 are based on a Post Poll survey conducted then.

Both Dhumal and Virbhadra govts rated almost equally in a direct comparison
Which govt. has been better – present BJP govt. or previous Cong govt.?	All	East Himachal	West Himachal
Present BJP govt. better	39	32	46
Previous Cong govt. better	38	40	35
Both equally good	10	12	8
Both equally bad	7	8	5
No opinion	6	8	6

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Both parties also rated almost equally on various issues
Party best for...	Cong	BJP	Both
Himachal’s youth	31	32	16
Promoting tourism	26	28	17
Ensuring legal sale-purchase of land	26	25	14
Himachal’s development	33	32	16

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or could not say. Among the 18-25 years age group category, 40% respondents said Cong is best for Himachal's youth and 33% said BJP. However among 26-35 years age group category 33% said Cong is best for youth and 35% said BJP.

Both parties' rule given almost equal credit for Himachal's development
Himachal has developed more under...	All	Non literate	Literate & Educated
Cong rule	39	42	38
BJP rule	38	33	39
Both Cong and BJP	12	9	13
Neither Cong nor BJP	4	5	3
Can't say	7	11	7

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Main election issues; Price rise on top, corruption at no. 3
Most important election issues	All	Women
Price rise	42	44
Roads	11	10
Corruption	10	7
Employment	8	7
Cap on subsidised LPG cylinders	5	7
Water problem	3	3
Wages, salaries, pension	2	2

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest mentioned other issues or had no opinion; Price rise and cap on subsidies LPG cylinders can be merged into one category.

Awareness of scams not very high; and even among those who are aware, more seem to have voted for Cong than BJP
Awareness of scams and its impact on voting preferences	Heard about it	Voting preferences of those who had heard
Awareness of scams and its impact on voting preferences	Heard about it	Cong	BJP
2G scam	51	43	37
CWG scam	45	43	36
Coal scam	52	41	40
ISPAT payoff issue	38	43	40
Virbhadra CD case	55	42	38

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had not heard and voted for others

And among those who are unaware of scams, more seem to have voted for BJP than Cong
Awareness of scams and its impact on voting preferences	Not heard about it	Voting preferences of those who had not heard
Awareness of scams and its impact on voting preferences	Not heard about it	Cong	BJP
2G scam	49	39	43
CWG scam	55	39	43
Coal scam	48	41	40
ISPAT payoff issue	62	40	40
Virbhadra CD case	45	43	47

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had heard and voted for others.

Most say Virbhadra is being falsely incriminated in corruption cases; even BJP voters not sure.
Statement - Virbhadra Singh is being falsely implicated in corruption cases	All	BJP voters	College educated
Agree	44	32	51
Disagree	25	35	29
No opinion	31	33	20

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Barring NREGA, State schemes seem to be working more than Central in terms of benefit. Please note credit for contentious 108 Ambulance service seems to be going to State more than Centre.
Govt. schemes	Those who say they or their family members have benefitted	Those who think it's a Central scheme	Those who think it's a State scheme	Reality
Old age pension scheme	29	50	16	Mainly Central scheme
Employment Guarantee scheme	47	63	12	Central scheme
Housing scheme (awaas yojana)	19	43	15	Central and State
School Uniform scheme	42	23	48	State scheme
108 Ambulance service	41	25	49	State and Central
Lighting efficiency scheme (Bijli Bachat)	44	21	42	State scheme

Note: All figures are in per cent; for Column 2 Rest did not benefit; for Columns 3 and 4 Rest said both or don’t know. Among respondents aged 56 years and above, 41% said they had benefitted from the pension scheme.

Most say Centre has given adequate assistance to Himachal
Central Government has…	All	East	West
Given all possible support and assistance to Himachal	36	36	36
Given support and assistance, but not enough	26	34	18
Given no support and assistance to Himachal at all	9	6	16

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion.

Majority have voted on the basis of State govt.'s work; but even in an Assembly election there are some who voted keeping in mind Central govt.'s work
Voted in election keeping in mind State govt.’s work or Central govt's work?	%
State govt's work	51
Central govt's work	15
Both	15
Neither	3

Note: Rest gave some other reasons or had no opinion.

Too many private universities in Himachal agree Himachalis; in Solan where most of the private universities are located, the feeling is even stronger.
Statement - Too many private universities have been opened in Himachal, much more than required.	All	Solan district	College educated
Agree	50	64	72
Disagree	13	15	12
No opinion	37	21	16

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Overall, the opinion against creating new districts is stronger, but not so in Kangra where there has been a demand.
Statement – No new districts should be created in Himachal Pradesh now	All	Kangra district	Hamirpurdistrict
Agree	41	27	59
Disagree	27	37	17
No opinion	32	36	24

Note: All figures are in per cent.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY

Cong expected to make significant gains among Brahmins, BJP among OBCs.
Caste/community	Cong	BJP	Others
Brahmins	38 (+12)	39 (-23)	23 (+11)
Rajputs	38 (-2)	42 (-4)	20 (+6)
Other Upper Castes	34 (-9)	53 (+5)	13 (+4)
OBC	32 (-5)	51 (+19)	17 (-14)
SC	49 (+2)	36 (+3)	15 (-5)
Rest	50 (+16)	20 (-46)	30 (+30)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since 2007; Rest includes STs, Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists and Christians; Figures for Rest should be read with caution due to small sample, particularly in 2007. According to rough estimates Brahmins constitute 20 per cent of Himachal’s population, Rajputs 28 per cent, Other Upper castes 8 per cent and OBCs 11 per cent; Apart from this SCs are 25 per cent according to Census 2001.

Cong likely to do best among youngest voters, BJP among 26-35 years; It is important to note that nearly half of Himachal’s electorate is below 40 years.
Age group	Cong	BJP	Others
18-25 years	45 (+10)	34 (-15)	21 (+5)
26-35 years	41 (-1)	43 (+2)	16 (-1)
36-45 years	41 (+5)	40 (-9)	19 (+4)
46-55 years	41 (+6)	39 (-1)	20 (-5)
56+ years	39 (-5)	41 (-1)	20 (+6)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.

Cong expected to gain and lead among non-literate and college educated, BJP likely to lead among low to medium educated
Education	Cong	BJP	Others
Non literate	46 (+6)	38 (-2)	16 (-4)
Up to primary	40 (-3)	43 (+5)	17 (-2)
Up to matric.	36 (-2)	42 (-4)	22 (+6)
College educated	45 (+7)	38 (-10)	17 (+3)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election.

Men for Cong, Women for BJP; It is important to note that 77% women voted compared to 71% men.
Gender	BJP	Cong	Others
Men	42 (+3)	38 (-6)	20 (+3)
Women	40 (+1)	43 (-1)	17 (0)

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election; Men constitute 52 per cent of Himachal's total electorate, women constitute 48 per cent of Himachal's total electorate; turnout of men in Assembly election 2012 was 71 per cent and turnout of women was 77 per cent.

Which women have likely voted for BJP the most?
Women's vote for BJP	BJP	Cong
Women overall	43	40
Women from lower class	46	38
Women educated up to matric.	46	35
Women between 26-35 years	47	39
Women from OBC community	56	28

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest voted for other parties and independents.

Cong expected to be ahead among Poor and Middle classes, BJP likely to be ahead among Lower class
Economic Class	Cong	BJP	Others
Rich	42	42	16
Middle	41	37	22
Lower	39	41	20
Poor	44	41	15

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Cong expected to do well among Govt. employees and Businessmen, BJP likely to be ahead among the unemployed.
Occupation	Cong	BJP	Others
Professionals	40	42	18
Govt. employees	38	32	30
Businessmen	49	40	11
Farmers	41	40	19
Others	44	38	18
Unemployed	39	44	17

Note: All figures are in per cent.

Cong expected to be ahead among marginal and medium farmers, BJP among small farmers
Farmers	Cong	BJP	Others
Farmers overall	41	40	19
Big farmers	42	42	16
Medium farmers	41	37	22
Small farmers	35	44	21
Marginal farmers	45	38	18
Tenant cultivators and agri labourers	41	36	23

Note: All figures are in per cent; Big farmers are cultivators who own 20+ acres land, Medium farmers are cultivators who own 5-19 acres land, Small farmers are cultivators who own 1-4 acres land, and Marginal farmers are cultivators who own less than 1 acre land.