It's not good news for either the Congress and the BJP as regional forces like JD(U) and Trinamool Congress are likely to remain strong. CNN-IBN's national affairs editor Bhupendra Chaubey joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the CNN-IBN election tracker survey in Bihar and West Bengal.
Q. As pointed by your polls BJP is gaining 8 percent already even without Modi entering the state of Bihar. Don't you think the results will change substantially in favour of NaMo once he hits the campaign trail? Asked by: Himanshu
The CNN-IBN election tracker survey: how Bihar and West Bengal are likely to vote.
A. hi Himanshu, the poll was also done at a time when BJP-JDU alliance was just broken. So those margins are being factored into.
Q. I think elections are still far away and this percentages are going to change as of now looking at vote share a positive verdict for BJP and regional parties and cause of worry for Congress but i see a huge change in these once the campaign starts.I want to know how the regional parties will fare in 2014 elections? Asked by: Sachin Sabnis
A. India lives in its states and villages. I think all regional parties will do well. Barring TDP, DMK, I think in north and east, regional parties may well hold sway
Q. Is Mamata following the old Left strategy by appealing to the rural voters by cheap gimmickry and an anti-Centre stance, and brazen appeasement of Muslims by even refusing to acknowledge rape cases if the perpetrator is a Muslim. Asked by: Dev
A. Dev, you can call it what you wish, but Mamta clearly is on her way up. I think reason behind that is her ability and knack to take some politically savy decisions.
Q. Hi Bhupen, I wanted to ask how realistic will this scenario be UPA - 180, BJP+SS+AIADMK = 210, rest are the regional parties like TMC, JDU, SP, BSP. Will UPA be in a better position then? How much is Modi BJP's Achile's heel? Finally will BJP be ever a factor in East in the near future? Asked by: Sunando, Oxford
A. Can't imagine both NDA and UPA close to each other a this range. What's possible is UPA: 120, NDA 150(( on basis of alliances suggested by you)).
Q. Recently there were some predictions after the split with JDU, BJP might win around 15 to 18 seats. Now the Hindu news paper says BJP might win between 8 - 12. Is it an indication that BJP is now loosing ground in Bihar? Asked by: Manjunath
A. Manjunath, its not as if BJP is losing ground. Its more to do with BJP more or less holding onto its position.
Q. In general BJP is improving its vote share by great deal (8 and 6 for Bihar and WB). Will this trend carry in other parts of country? Asked by: Sandeep
A. What this shows is that what's not being accepted in large parts of the country, is probably true. Narendra Modi has managed to evoke a strong sense of emotion with people on the ground. That's why BJP's vote share seems to be increasing.
Q. What can BJP do to increase its tally and vote share in Bihar, WB, Odisha and North East? Asked by: Dharam
A. BJP will only gain more if it blends development talk with Hindutva. Where Narendra Modi scores over others within thee BJP is his ability to strike an emotional connect.
Q. Will the BJP in Bihar face the same fate as the BJP in Orissa following break up with BJD (especially in assembly elections)? Asked by: Dheeraj
A. Dheeraj, there is a lot of difference between BJP in Odisha and BJP in Bihar. There is a committed support base of BJP in Bihar. It believes it can manage support of upper castes as well in Bihar.
Q. Is Ram Vilas Paswan a leader in consideration at Bihar or not. With whom is he aligning? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. I'm afraid no Sundar, Mr Paswan on his own is a far cry from 2004 or 05.
Q. Bhupendra can you name the Congress/BJP strongman who can match Nitish or Mamta from the respective states, in a duel? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. In Bihar, BJP has a strong line up of leaders, in Bengal, BJP may gain with Modi's presence and lack of popularity of left and Mamta.
Q. Mamata going strong in rural areas reflects that the roots are gaining strength to stand on it's own. Will TMC shun an alliance as being indicated by Jaya for Tamil Nadu? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. I think Ms Banerjee will toy with the idea of a federal front. She is aware of the fact that any secular front will ultimately end up also tying up with left parties, and that is something she will never be a part of.
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