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I think the stage is set for a non-congress govt: Bhupendra Chaubey

IBNLive.com
May 22, 2013 at 06:37pm IST

The UPA-II government has just completed four years in power. So, what have been its achievements and failures? CNN-IBN's national affairs editor Bhupendra Chaubey joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.

Q. In urban areas, it seems like UPA-2 will definitely suffer in the forthcoming elections, whats the scene in the rural India... how is the performance seen there. Different or same like how urban India sees it like, full of scam and inflation. Asked by: TCO

A. I think inflation, corruption affects everyone. Whether its rural or urban India. If anything, it hurts the rural parts more.

I think the stage is set for a non-congress govt: Bhupendra Chaubey

Four years of UPA-II: what's the verdict?

Q. As per today situation people will remember anything UPA II achieved because of misgovernance and corruption? Asked by: Hari

A. Public memory is shortlived. Hence i think people wont accept if UPA tries to pass of the last couple of years as an aberration and decides to focus only on what was achieved between 2004 and 09. At the moment, whats needed is for the UPA to do introspection.

Q. Given present condition of BJP,can there be a UPA3 much similar to that of UPA1 where Cong got just 145 seats but still ran a govt for full 5 years? Asked by: avishek

A. In politics, you never dismiss anyone outrightly. So i wont dismiss the congress. But I find it hard to see where the congress will come up with the number of seats you talk about. Barring Karnataka, there is no state where the congress is showing signs of increasing

Q. The reason for UPA to brazen it out was because of perception of Media softness on UPA corruption crimes. Your take. Asked by: sk

A. That's totally wrong to assume that Media was soft on upa corruption. If anything, you see the manner in which the number of scams have been exposed in UPA's tenure.

Q. Bhupen da, UPA-II has not delivered, what was expected. This is just like everything is granted since we don't have an energetic opponent to form the government. Most of the times BJP is playing with triumph card politics? Do you think apart form UPA, will anyone form govt? Asked by: Subbu

A. I think the next govt is bound to be a non congress govt. It could be a govt supported by the congress, but i find it hard to see how a cong led govt is still possible. So yes, its possible that someone other than UPA forms the next govt, It could be NDA or it could be third front.

Q. What's your honest take on the possibility of govt formation in 2014? Asked by: Rohan

A. As much as all pundits say that the next govt is going to be full of contradictions, If you see across the states, the verdict has been one of outright majority. So for all you know, it may be possible for one party to go upto 200 or more seats.

Q. Bhupendra. Are both big blocks, NDA and UPA still unclear of there projected leader in 2014 or its just that they are holding the cards close to the chest for now? Asked by: S Chaturvedi

A. I think neither is sure of what to expect. Which is why despite all the talk of Congress being weak, BJP hasn't managed to bring in a no confidence motion against the party.

Q. How many seats do you think Congress will in UP in 2014? Can it repeat the 21 seats victory? Asked by: Kamala C

A. Very difficult to see Congress repeating the verdict of 2009 in UP. I think Congress will be down to single digits in UP.

Q. Bhupen- have you seen the seats tally of voters on with Modi and without Modi - your take on that. Asked by: sk

A. Its possible, if Modi is indeed the PM candidate, BJP will be taking a gamble. It may gain substantially in urban pockets, but there will be a question mark over other communities. Plus remember Modi has never been tested outside Gujarat.

Q. The nation has seen the good....the bad......and the ugly side of governance. Good in terms of passing of RTE / MNREGA/ discussion on lokpal / winning Karnataka....anti rape laws etc. The bad in terms of its inability to keep its allies on check, the ugly in terms of coal gate / telecom scandal/Bansal/Kalmadi etc...over all an average performance. Asked by: S ESHWAR

A. Yes, maybe if you do a mathematical calculation, then you could say that its perhaps an average performance.

Q. How long are the people going to believe MMS and the Gandhis are not corrupt but its only the ministers? Asked by: Vinod

A. According to a recent poll that was done by CNN-IBN, it showed that more and people were willing to accept that maybe Manmohan Singh himself is personally corrupt. Afterall you can't be Mr clean if you are the head of a pack of corrupt people.

Q. We can say UPA I 2004-09 achievement because of NDA policy and future plan, after 2009 congress failed because on their own policy? Asked by: Hari

A. That's a good point you make, BJP lost the election because it misread the national mood in 2004, Congress perhaps also misread the mandate of 2009, which is why they failed to look after the interests of burgeoning middle classes

Q. Any advice for BJP or Namo? Asked by: Sachin

A. Keep your feet on the ground. Let me tell u a joke, Once Sachin Tendulkar was at a function after scoring his hundredth international century. Someone asked him, how do you score so much, He simply replied, " by keeping my feet on the ground" There's a lesson there for politicians as well

Q. Congress may be doing badly, but BJP is not doing well either. Leadership crisis, weak presence in South India are few of its headaches now. Your thoughts. Asked by: sourav

A. I agree, I think if you look at India as a whole, there are a few states where BJP can hope to increase its tally since its week in those states, Delhi, UP, Rajasthan. In these states, BJP needs to win big. Then you have states like Gujarat, where the BJP could still gain or MP where again the BJP is on a high. Its difficult to say that BJP will get a majority on its own, But if it gets its act together in the states I mentioned, then it stands a good chance.

Q. BJP being a hopeless opposition, do you see UPA again in 2014? Asked by: ROHIT

A. I think stage is set for a non-Congress govt.

Q. Hi Bhupen, do you agree with a feeling that the biggest reason why UPA is in such a mess today is due to the ARROGANCE of some of their top leaders (who rarely feel the need to even talk to the fellow citizens)? Asked by: Rajiv

A. I agree, afterall I can count on my fingers the number of times the PM or Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi have spoken on issues. We do need to introspect why the congress is in this position.

Q. Bhupendra, do you really think it is all doom and no hope for the UPA in 2014 as is being portrayed constantly?..I'm sure the UPA has done some good work and even now comes across wanting to do more, it being election year...It is on the back foot we all know, but what is the way forward for them? Asked by: JK

A. Way forward is some bold decision and calculated risks. But congress isnt a party known to be taking risks.

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