India, China to be leading powers by 2025: US intelligence

FLAGGING OFF A NEW ERA: US says India and China will emerge atop a multipolar world.

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Washington: China and India are likely to emerge atop a multipolar international system as the US economic and political clout declines over the next two decades, according to US intelligence agencies projections.

Not only will new players - Brazil, Russia, India and China - have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game, said the National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025- A Transformed World" released on Thursday.

The whole international system, as constructed following the Second World War, will be revolutionised, said the report based on a global survey of experts and trends by US intelligence analysts.

It was timed to be ready for the incoming administration of US President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office Jan 20.

Although the rise of no other state can equal the impact of the rise of such populous states as China and India, other countries with potentially high-performing economies could play increasingly important roles on the world stage, the report said.

For example Iran, Indonesia, and Turkey could do so especially for establishing new patterns in the Muslim world.

But for Russia, remaining in the top tier where it has been since its remarkable resurgence during the late 1990s and early part of the 21st century may be extremely difficult, it said.

Describing the current financial crisis on Wall Street as the beginning of a global economic rebalancing, it said the US dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a "first among equals."

The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report said.

"Although we believe chances are good that China and India will continue to rise, their ascent is not guaranteed and will require overcoming high economic and social hurdles."