Click to play videoNew Delhi: The results of the second-ever presidential election in Afghanistan will be out soon. While there is much speculation within as to who its new leader will be, the nation's regional neighbours are also waiting with bated breath.
Whether it's President Hamid Karzai or the man challenging him for the presidency Abdullah Abdullah, India is in the comfortable position of enjoying the confidence of both leaders.
Karzai in particular has the backing of key ethnic leaders with whom India developed a close equation during the Taliban occupation of Afghanistan.
They include the Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum who controls seven provinces in the north including Mazar-e-Sharif, Tajik chieftain Ismail Khan who controls Herat, Hazara leader Karim Khalili representing central Afghanistan and the Pashtun Governor of Jalalabad Gul Agha Sherzai.
Abdullah being half Tajik and half Pashtun is expected to gain in areas where these two ethnic groups predominate as the confidante of the late Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Massoud his candidature exercises a powerful pull on Tajik emotions.
But pragmatic Afghans will finally plump for the man who they believe will bring peace to their country, a peace that can only be guaranteed if the Taliban end their violence.
Taming the Taliban
Reports suggest a concerted effort being made by the Americans to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The US is seeking to achieve it through Saudi Arabia, Pakistani and Afghan intermediaries who enjoy the Taliban's trust.
It also involves buying over lower and middle level Taliban commanders as it appears that Taliban leader Mullah Omar is the main opponent of any peace deal.
If the Taliban does enter the Afghan government, Pakistan for the first time in eight years will get a foothold in Kabul.
India will want to prevent this and evidently hopes its relationship with Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah will ensure no deal is struck with the Taliban.
But India could be indulging in wishful thinking as at the end of the day the Afghans will decide for themselves what they can live with.
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