India move on Lanka after TN polls

New Delhi: Sri lanka was quiet for today. But don't expect any proactive moves by India on Sri Lanka until the Tamil Nadu elections are over.

After that India will be looking to broaden the pressures on the LTTE to isolate them as a first step towards weakening their military capability.

After two days of air strikes Eastern Sri Lanka was reported quiet. No fighting was reported from the northern front either.

UN relief officials are yet to verify claims by the LTTE that up to 40,000 people have been displaced by the air strikes and 12 killed.

India had earlier condemned the suicide attack on Sri Lanka's army chief Lt General Sarath Fonseca that sparked off the fighting.

But India's action has been limited to words. Indian diplomats admit the need not to alienate the domestic Tamil vote drives policy towards Sri Lanka.

The politicians fear any action against the LTTE could rebound on them domestically. The diplomats say expect proactive measures against the Tigers after the Tamil Nadu elections. Plans are underway they say, to isolate the Tigers and limit their military capacity.

But the critics warn that India must move fast or it risks endangering its growing economic and strategic stakes in Sri Lanka.

General Ashok Mehta says, "We have stakes in the security and sovereignty of Sri Lanka. We have economic stakes in Chinko. We have vital stakes in the oil tanks of Trincomalee harbour."

A decision to supply arms to Colombo has been pending with the Indian Cabinet for nearly two years. Critics warn that India is only opening the doors to Pakistan and China, a fact which was indirectly confirmed by Sri Lanka's High Commissioner Romesh Jayasingha.

Jayasingha says, "The military would have to defend the people of Sri Lanka. The military is aware that in such a situation they have to deal with it drawing their own strengths and capacities."

When foreign policy is circumscribed by domestic politics expect neither clarity nor vision. One waits to see whether a turnaround in Sri Lanka will happen and how soon.

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